White Sox vs. Guardians
The White Sox are 3-0 to open the playoffs. They’ll send Anthony Kay to the hill to face the Guardians ace, Gavin Williams.
A lot of people, I think, are pulling for the White Sox. They’re the underdog. The team that lost 116 games two years ago and now finds themselves with a chance to go to the ALCS. That would be quite a story.
But I don’t like their chances tonight. They exhausted Hagen Smith and Grant Taylor in game one. Their weakness is pitching (a pretty major weakness in playoff baseball), and they’d be hard-pressed to use either of those young studs tonight, even after the off day yesterday. They’re up 1-0 in a five-game set; they don’t have to play completely wrecklessly.
The Guardians this year:
vs. RHP: .242/.314/.389, .703 OPS, 20.6% K%
vs. LHP: .230/.309/.361, .670 OPS, 21.3% K%
There’s just no thump in the Cleveland lineup. They’ll need to Jose Ramirez to get going so they can score some runs behind their solid pitching attack tonight. J-Ram had a bad season by his standards. But he brings a lot more power to the table against lefties.
A lot more slugging from the right side (.469 vs. .324), and a big-time .353 xwOBA and .294 xBA. I like this spot for him against Anthony Kay, who should be in there at least twice through the lineup.
Jo Adell is the other threat against lefties. A big .395 xwOBA this year. Big raw power; he just didn’t tap into it all that often this year. But he was better after getting to Cleveland. He hit .244/.320/.417 overall with seven bombs and a .340 xwOBA. The rest of the lineup is pretty punchless overall, and especially against lefties. The splits are ugly.
The White Sox have the big advantage in home run hitting potential, and Gavin Williams gave up his share of those this year. His results against the White Sox this year aren’t terrific:
That’s a 3.98 ERA, but his normal high strikeout rate with 28 punchouts in 20.1 innings.
Big pitching advantage to the Guardians here, both with the starters and the bullpens. The sims give the Guards a 53% chance at a win.
I could see some runs going on the board, though. Anthony Kay just isn’t very good and the bullpen help behind him is limited. The White Sox match up well with Gavin Williams one weakness - allowing homers.
Game Prediction: Guardians 6, White Sox 3
Plays: Over 6.5, Jose Ramirez to homer
Yankees vs. Rays
Cam Schlittler threw 117 pitches six days ago. Will that matter? This is the most he’s ever been pushed, and now he goes and faces a Rays team that has seen him three times this year and plays really good baseball at home.