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I happened to have a little bit of extra time this morning, so I broke down both slates today since they’re two good-sized slates, so enjoy. We’re at that stage of the season where you really got to start watching for why I faded Mizorowski the other day. Hey, let’s not burn them out. Take a look at those kinds of things as we get towards the end of July here into August. That’s going to make a difference for a team, either competitively, tending or trying to save players.
The Run Environment
Eight games, and the sim built a clear pecking order. PIT at NYY sits alone at the top with an 11.75 game total, and the Yankees carry a 6.61 team number that no other team on the board sniffs. After that it flattens out: ATH at ARI 10.44, CIN at SEA 10.37, SF at KC 10.25, then everything else clusters between 8.8 and 9.7. Individual team totals worth circling behind New York are the Athletics at 5.91, Giants at 5.79, Nationals at 5.51, and Mariners at 5.75.
Here is the field read. Ownership is stacking the Yankees hard, and they should, Jazz Chisholm at 13% and Ben Rice at 10% are chalk for the right reason against Mitch Keller, who the sim projects for a brutal 12.01 Sim DK. The trap is C.J. Abrams at 12% on a Colorado road total that the sim actually reads as a Nationals number, not a Rockies one, Washington scores 5.51 to Colorado’s 4.18. The quiet spot is the Giants at Kansas City, a 10.25 total and single-digit stack ownership across the board. Abrams went off last night and people will chase today. Dont chase.
Weather
Pitching
