Exploiting the Default Ranks
Looking at pre-ranks on ESPN and Yahoo to find draft edges
This one goes out to the home league folks. To those of you playing in a Yahoo or ESPN league in a more relaxed setting. Aka the most common type of fantasy league.
It’s another draft season post I’ve stolen from Adam Levitan over at Establish the Run.
We’re looking at the default rankings when you open the draft software. No matter the level of competition in the league, those default rankings matter. Even if most of the league is savvy on the player pool and well aware of where players should be going, when those names get to the top of the list on the default rankings in the draft software, it won’t be long before they’re gone.
So I’ll give you some mis-ranked names on both Yahoo and ESPN in this one. The quick and easy way to do this is by comparing with NFBC ADP. There’s big money going into the NFBC ADP, so it’s pretty sharp and very useful for our purposes. Obviously, league settings change things. I’m not here to get into the nitty-gritty of every league type, rather just to point out players you’ll find in these two draft apps that really don’t make any sense.
That raises the question. Do we crank too much hog to the NFBC? It’s all we ever talk about anymore, and it was an unheard-of website like five years ago. Fantasy baseball has been going for decades; NFBC is in its infancy.
But no, I don’t think we do. I think the amount of hog being cranked is appropriate. When in doubt, follow the money. That’s a good market principle to live by. If you want the best projections and the best ADP and the best player ranks, go to the source that has the biggest incentive to do things right.
Some ESPN staff writer throwing together a top 300 list isn’t incentivized to be accurate. He’s getting the pay check no matter what he puts down on paper. It’s not to trash staff writers individually, but just to point out the incentive structure that causes inaccuracies. When you have a bunch of dudes investing thousands of dollars into their fantasy drafts, you’re going to get a much better end result to learn from. It’s the beauty of the free market. One of God’s greatest inventions.
The pre-ranks on these websites do not come from ADP. You’d think they would, but they don’t. They come from, as mentioned, a staff writer at that website putting up a top 300. After that, I’m not sure how the players are organized. It’s all subject to change, I suppose. I exported the top 300’s from Yahoo and ESPN on March 10th. It mostly matched the default ranks in the mock drafts I entered for checking purposes on ESPN and Yahoo that same day.
Let’s get into it.
ESPN
Under-Ranked Players / Potential Targets
When you sort simply by rank differential, you’ll find relievers coming up as “under-ranked” on ESPN/Yahoo. The NFBC is mostly “draft and holds” and super deep leagues. Those formats push relievers up, since you can’t find saves on waivers. The most under-ranked player in the ESPN app is Griffin Jax. He is ranked #244 there, while he’s #147 in recent NFBC drafts. But if you’re drafting a 12-team league with trades and waivers, you’re not going to have to pay that for a closer.
So we’ll look more for non-closers. Here are your players who are much higher ranked on NFBC than ESPN. It’s a mix of players, but we see a lot of younger names here that maybe the more casual players aren’t quite in tune with. But there are some veteran names that I was surprised to see, such as Ian Happ, Adolis Garcia, and Yainer Diaz.
Shane McClanahan (#283 on ESPN, #188 on NFBC)
Matt McLain (#250 on ESPN, #159 on NFBC)
Adley Rutschman (#235 on ESPN, #148 on NFBC)
Noelvi Marte (#231 on ESPN, #146 on NFBC)
Edward Cabrera (#255 on ESPN, #171 on NFBC)
Royce Lewis (#272 on ESPN, #199 on NFBC)
Yainer Diaz (#179 on ESPN, #107 on NFBC)
Daulton Varsho (#273 on ESPN, #202 on NFBC)
Ryan Weathers (#300 on ESPN, #231 on NFBC)
Emmet Sheehan (#174 on ESPN, #106 on NFBC)
Jordan Beck (#294 on ESPN, #227 on NFBC)
Carter Jensen (#242 on ESPN, #184 on NFBC)
Ian Happ (#230 on ESPN, #174 on NFBC)
Samuel Basallo (#236 on ESPN, #182 on NFBC)
Bubba Chandler (#208 on ESPN, #155 on NFBC)
Jac Caglianone (#223 on ESPN, #170 on NFBC)
Jakob Marsee (#186 on ESPN, #134 on NFBC)
Adolis Garcia (#271 on ESPN, #219 on NFBC)
Over-Ranked Players / Potential Fades
Here are the guys ranked way higher on ESPN than they should be. The “name value” bias really pops here. Starling Marte is, for some weird reason, pre-ranked in the top 300. He’s probably not even an MLB starter at this point. Strange stuff. You’ll also see veteran names like Rhys Hoskins, Jose Berrios, and Jake Cronenworth. Guys that had moments years ago, but are a long, long ways from being positive fantasy baseball contributors.
Starling Marte (#262 on ESPN, #795 on NFBC)
Masataka Yoshida (#286 on ESPN, #658 on NFBC)
Rhys Hoskins (#221 on ESPN, #466 on NFBC)
Spencer Schwellenbach (#264 on ESPN, #495 on NFBC)
Jose Berrios (#257 on ESPN, #425 on NFBC)
Jake Cronenworth (#253 on ESPN, #416 on NFBC)
Ryan Waldschmidt (#295 on ESPN, #452 on NFBC)
Anthony Volpe (#204 on ESPN, #353 on NFBC)
Moises Ballesteros (#261 on ESPN, #406 on NFBC)
Gavin Sheets (#290 on ESPN, #404 on NFBC)
Zach McKinstry (#233 on ESPN, #335 on NFBC)
Roki Sasaki (#188 on ESPN, #284 on NFBC)
Bryce Eldridge (#260 on ESPN, #350 on NFBC)
Jackson Holliday (#115 on ESPN, #203 on NFBC)
Marcus Semien (#163 on ESPN, #250 on NFBC)
Mark Vientos (#267 on ESPN, #352 on NFBC)
Shane Bieber (#201 on ESPN, #280 on NFBC)
Masyn Winn (#202 on ESPN, #279 on NFBC)
Colson Montgomery (#161 on ESPN, #235 on NFBC)
Matthew Boyd (#150 on ESPN, #216 on NFBC)
Heliot Ramos (#156 on ESPN, #221 on NFBC)
Luis Arraez (#200 on ESPN, #265 on NFBC)
Gerrit Cole (#180 on ESPN, #244 on NFBC)
Christian Yelich (#74 on ESPN, #134 on NFBC)
Brendan Donovan (#205 on ESPN, #263 on NFBC)
Spencer Steer (#227 on ESPN, #285 on NFBC)
Jeremy Pena (#73 on ESPN, #130 on NFBC)
Yusei Kikuchi (#291 on ESPN, #348 on NFBC)
Jacob Wilson (#136 on ESPN, #191 on NFBC)
Carson Kelly (#275 on ESPN, #329 on NFBC)
Ernie Clement (#237 on ESPN, #290 on NFBC)
I don’t have a great explanation for all of those names. Heliot Ramos, for example. He’s at #156 on ESPN but at #221 on NFBC. I think #220 is a lot more correct, but I can’t offer an explanation for why he’s liked more than that on ESPN.
You also have Bryce Eldridge in this group, which is the opposite of what I’d have expected. The “under-ranked” list was littered with these potential rookie breakouts, but Eldridge is here way over-ranked on ESPN. These ranks come from an ESPN Expert Top 300. So maybe the guy who made these pre-ranks is just a big Giants fan or something. I wouldn’t be surprised. Luis Arraez is also here to bolster that theory.
YAHOO
Under-Ranked Players / Potential Targets
You’ll get the full data at the bottom of the post, so you can see the full list. But this particular query result was littered with catchers. So I’m excluding them.
It’s not nearly as bad on Yahoo, by the way. I was focusing above on differentials of more than 50 picks. There rae only a handful of those on Yahoo in this first example. So I’ll expand it to differentials of 30 picks or more.
Matt McLain (#257 on Yahoo, #159 on NFBC)
Konnor Griffin (#207 on Yahoo, #139 on NFBC)
Jackson Holliday (#269 on Yahoo, #203 on NFBC)
Jake Burger (#302 on Yahoo, #237 on NFBC)
Spencer Strider (#167 on Yahoo, #104 on NFBC)
Jac Caglianone (#229 on Yahoo, #170 on NFBC)
Bryson Stott (#241 on Yahoo, #190 on NFBC)
Sal Stewart (#219 on Yahoo, #176 on NFBC)
Kodai Senga (#294 on Yahoo, #252 on NFBC)
Mike Trout (#221 on Yahoo, #180 on NFBC)
Gerrit Cole (#284 on Yahoo, #244 on NFBC)
Miguel Vargas (#314 on Yahoo, #275 on NFBC)
Eury Perez (#118 on Yahoo, #81 on NFBC)
Ceddanne Rafaela (#157 on Yahoo, #122 on NFBC)
Caleb Durbin (#250 on Yahoo, #215 on NFBC)
Jack Leiter (#268 on Yahoo, #233 on NFBC)
Mickey Moniak (#277 on Yahoo, #242 on NFBC)
Matt Wallner (#335 on Yahoo, #301 on NFBC)
Cade Cavalli (#341 on Yahoo, #308 on NFBC)
Ben Rice (#84 on Yahoo, #51 on NFBC)
Ryan Weathers (#263 on Yahoo, #231 on NFBC)
Noelvi Marte (#176 on Yahoo, #146 on NFBC)
Over-Ranked Players / Potential Fades
There are way more on this list, so I’ve cut it back to only showing you the players with a 50-pick differential or more.
Anthony Santander (#267 on Yahoo, #533 on NFBC)
Michael Wacha (#236 on Yahoo, #362 on NFBC)
Nolan Schanuel (#228 on Yahoo, #330 on NFBC)
David Peterson (#247 on Yahoo, #347 on NFBC)
Masyn Winn (#189 on Yahoo, #279 on NFBC)
Kyle Harrison (#308 on Yahoo, #396 on NFBC)
Spencer Horwitz (#317 on Yahoo, #402 on NFBC)
Quinn Priester (#234 on Yahoo, #318 on NFBC)
Zach Eflin (#275 on Yahoo, #359 on NFBC)
Mark Vientos (#270 on Yahoo, #352 on NFBC)
Jordan Westburg (#235 on Yahoo, #313 on NFBC)
Yusei Kikuchi (#271 on Yahoo, #348 on NFBC)
J.P. Crawford (#334 on Yahoo, #411 on NFBC)
Mitch Keller (#264 on Yahoo, #339 on NFBC)
Colson Montgomery (#164 on Yahoo, #235 on NFBC)
Willson Contreras (#97 on Yahoo, #166 on NFBC)
Brandon Marsh (#287 on Yahoo, #355 on NFBC)
Marcus Semien (#183 on Yahoo, #250 on NFBC)
Andrew Vaughn (#194 on Yahoo, #261 on NFBC)
Christian Walker (#150 on Yahoo, #213 on NFBC)
Jacob Lopez (#286 on Yahoo, #349 on NFBC)
Luis Garcia Jr. (#179 on Yahoo, #241 on NFBC)
Noah Cameron (#220 on Yahoo, #282 on NFBC)
Tommy Edman (#327 on Yahoo, #389 on NFBC)
Brendan Donovan (#202 on Yahoo, #263 on NFBC)
Luis Arraez (#204 on Yahoo, #265 on NFBC)
Jose Soriano (#248 on Yahoo, #309 on NFBC)
Brandon Pfaadt (#337 on Yahoo, #398 on NFBC)
Andrew Abbott (#161 on Yahoo, #220 on NFBC)
Merrill Kelly (#199 on Yahoo, #257 on NFBC)
Trey Yesavage (#101 on Yahoo, #158 on NFBC)
Bryan Reynolds (#151 on Yahoo, #208 on NFBC)
Jacob Wilson (#135 on Yahoo, #191 on NFBC)
Justin Steele (#305 on Yahoo, #361 on NFBC)
Kerry Carpenter (#175 on Yahoo, #229 on NFBC)
JJ Wetherholt (#171 on Yahoo, #223 on NFBC)
Gleyber Torres (#195 on Yahoo, #247 on NFBC)
Ryne Nelson (#206 on Yahoo, #258 on NFBC)
Blake Snell (#112 on Yahoo, #163 on NFBC)
Ezequiel Tovar (#154 on Yahoo, #205 on NFBC)
Kyle Stowers (#91 on Yahoo, #141 on NFBC)
Luis Castillo (#114 on Yahoo, #164 on NFBC)
There you go! Some potential big-time values and fades if you’re drafting on Yahoo or ESPN in a league where the default ranks dictate the draft a little bit.