One big update I’ve had to decide on this morning… I will not have statistical projections here. Some stuff changed recently and I can’t do it. So we’re back to having just the fantasy point projections to use. That makes me feel better about not having a separate subscription for this. To get full detailed projections, you’ll have to go elsewhere.
I know that John Laghezza does them on his own. You can subscribe to his Substack here:
He has a lot of good stuff there and each player is projected to their individual stat line each week. I’ll probably be using those projections myself as a proud subscriber to my boy Johnny Stud!
Dashboard & App Are Live
Links are in the Resource Glossary as of right now. They’re right at the top. I’ll give tutorials of those resources next week when we have some actual data in there.
The app is barely usable right now. I will get the game-by-game previews working after we have a week of data. The book based projections are there, so those are good to check on for your fantasy league decisions.
There’s a DFS optimizer in there too which I’ll be using a lot.
Last Night’s Game
It didn’t work. We lost Sam Darnold at 50% owned in our approach of playing the optimal in the big million dollar tournament, and we fell just short of the cash line. I’m pretty sure it would’ve cashed easily without that injury, so there’s a good excuse I can use.
The xFP model is back for 2026, and we have the results from last night:
Patriots Usage
This was a brutal matchup against the Seahawks. We certainly can’t judge a team on one game, and especially not when it’s against an elite defense.
But they ran the ball a lot (-6% PROE%), and they gave Rhamondre Stevenson a huge role with Henderson on the sideline.
Stevenson saw 18 carries and six targets, but he was inefficient with just 51 rushing yards (2.8 yards per carry). He won’t get that kind of passing game work when Henderson gets back, but it was a good sign that they still feel very confident with him. He played 85% of snaps and ran 27 routes.
They also lost AJ Brown right at the beginning of the second half. He had a 29% target per route run before that, which was elite. It’s a high ankle sprain, so we won’t see him for a few weeks or worse, I think. The Patriots table here from the main tab on the dashboard:
DeMario Douglas was the guy after Brown left. A sweet 23% target share and 22% TPRR. Romeo Doubs wasn’t on the field a ton in the first half and had a bruuuuutal drop that might have pushed targets away from him at the end of the game.
So “Pop” Douglas will be a decent waiver wire add for week two, we think. Not a guy to break the bank on, but someone who will have to get some targets while Brown is out.
It’ll also be good for Doubs, who they gave a lot of money to. So we shouldn’t freak out about his bad first week, there will have to be more action going his way while AJB is out.
Seahawks Usage
They ran an absolute ton with Darnold being out. -13% PROE%. Snaps were split between Jadarian Price and George Holani.
Price was very efficient with 5.2 yards per carry, but played half the snaps.
He ran 11 routes and saw two targets. That’s not good, but we were curious if he’d do even that much in the passing game. He had just a few catches per year at Notre Dame. So he’s not a pass catching back at this point, and the pass protection stuff leans in favor of the veteran Holani.
Price will probably average 4-6 yards per carry and get the bulk of the goalline carries until Charbonnet is back. But he’s hardly an RB2 for fantasy with this role in my book. The role will probably grow as he gets more experience, but right when that’s getting going, Charbonnet returns and takes a lot of work from him. It could be an ugly season for Price in fantasy leagues. You want the goalline and you want the targets, and he doesn’t look super great in either spot this year.
It was the JSN show even against an elite corner. 4.7 yards per route, 46% target share. Right back into his elite role and production even with Drew Luck being the gunslinger.
The Seahawks won the game, but this was kind of a bloodbath for fantasy leagues. Lock being the QB brings down the Seahawks efficiency, and the loss of AJ Brown was a major impact in fantasy leagues as well.
The winner was Stevenson, but that only lasts as long as Henderson is out. The other short-term winner was DeMario Douglas, I think.
So that’s a taste of the analysis I can do and the numbers and stuff you can get on that NFL dashboard. Much, much more to come!