Finding the Cliffs: Shortstop and Outfield
I look into early draft ADP to find the "cliffs" at each position
Other posts
The Tracker
Catcher
Main Cliff: 155
Final Cliff: 335
First Base
First Cliff: 122
Main Cliff: 290
Final Cliff: 408
Second Base
First Cliff: 125
Main Cliff: 211
Final Cliff: 290
Third Base
First Cliff: 141
Main Cliff: 251
Final Cliff: 300
I’m going to get right into it. If you’re unclear on what I’m doing here, read one of the other two posts first!
Shortstop
The days of the light-hitting defensive specialist at shortstop are long gone. I remember in my early days of playing fantasy baseball, that shortstop was a lot like catcher. There were very few good hitters there, so you’d just hope to draft somebody late who could steal some bags or something. I’m not sure what happened, but now, some of the game’s most talented athletes end up as shortstops, and they rake.
The position is deep again. But just because there are decent options around pick 150, that does not mean you should wait at the position. There are four guys who go in the first two rounds here, and then another trio of guys with huge fantasy upside. Take what the draft gives you. You should not be passing up on the best available player in the early rounds just because you like other guys at the position. Now, let’s talk about these cliffs.
The guys I like for potential five-category production are all in the top 125. Ezequiel Tovar sneaks in there before the first big cliff, but that isn’t to say he’s just as good of a pick as CJ Abrams. He has issues, but not enough to make him someone I’m not comfortable with as my starting SS if that’s what the draft gives me.
The main cliff is after Dansby Swanson at pick 181. Everybody above him has pretty well locked-in playing time and the ability to contribute in at least a few categories. You have some specialists in this second clump, and none of these guys provides true positive production across the board, but I’m not going to be panicking if I’m forced to start any of them every day.
The final cliff, where I want to be completely done with the position, is after Ha-Seong Kim at pick 294. He’s very cheap because he won’t be healthy at the beginning of the year, so he’s a bit of a unique case. This clump of players all do something well and should be starters while healthy.
I can’t say I’m in love with anybody at the position outside of the top 50. It’s a very category and league-specific position, so you have to be strategic. My preferred method would be to have one of the studs, and then fill in my middle infield spot with another shortstop. There’s a whole lot more to like at SS than 2B, so be aggressive inside the top 200. Get two or three of these guys.
Outfield
We have to go to the double screenshot here.
We find our first cliff after Adolis Garcia at pick 143. That is not to say I want to have Garcia or Happ or someone around them as my first outfielder. In a five-outfielder league, I’m looking to get at least two and probably three guys in that first chunk.
I’m placing the main cliff after Heliot Ramos at pick 201. In a three-outfielder league, I’d like to have it filled out by then. In a five-outfielder league, give me at least three guys by then.
There’s another cliff after pick 251 once Garrett Mitchell is gone. That doesn’t mean everybody above that line are safe, but they are significantly safer than the names that come later.
There are a few names after the final line (Jung Hoo Lee, TJ Friedl, Lars Nootbaar) that I’d be fine with as my OF4 or OF5, but the general rule I’m shooting for is to not have to rely on more than one name after that final line in my starting lineup.
The outfield is so league-specific. The approach should be wildly different if you’re comparing a 15-team, five-outfielder league with a 10-team, three-outfielder league, for example. In the latter league, I’m willing to take some real risks - because the replacement level will be so high. In the former, I’m locking in a solid outfield as best as I can in the draft.
Keep all of that in mind when drafting, but I’ll get a lot more into the strategy when we reach outfield preview season.
Let’s update the tracker and get out of here.
The Tracker
Catcher
Main Cliff: 155
Final Cliff: 335
First Base
First Cliff: 122
Main Cliff: 290
Final Cliff: 408
Second Base
First Cliff: 125
Main Cliff: 211
Final Cliff: 290
Third Base
First Cliff: 141
Main Cliff: 251
Final Cliff: 300
Shortstop
First Cliff: 124
Main Cliff: 181
Final Cliff: 294
Outfield
First Cliff: 143
Main Cliff: 201
Final Cliff: 334
That wraps up this series - hope it helped!
Great stuff. Much appreciated