Friday Night DFS Slate Breakdown
A close look at single-entry strategy for June 5th MLB DFS contests
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The feedback was positive on the newer approach here of going through this from a single-entry, “play the best plays” point of view. I’m back to playing this way, and I’m getting a lot of enjoyment out of it. So that’s what we’ll continue to do, while giving out tourney options and the tourney pools as we go.
I’ve been just playing every single $1-$3 double up the lobby offers and kicking the lineup into one or two smaller field tournaments to give me some upside for if/when the lineup does go nuclear. I really like these “Hundo” contests they offer sometimes. There aren’t any of those available tonight, it seems. But if you can find them, they are single-entry 100-man tournaments with 10% rake. That’s the lowest rake you can find. I found this contest tonight:
So that’s ($50*45=)$2,250 in the pool and $2,000 paid out. An 11% rake. That’s not too bad. Most of the big tourneys are around 15%, I believe. So I’ll play this one along with the double up and hope we can get to the top 22% of lineups in that way to have a big night with.
Weather
Looks like we’re good to go again on the main slate!
Game Info
BREWERS in COORS
We’re back in Coors for the weekend, so get your chalkboards out.
Ryan Feltner is the guy going for the Rockies. He’s made just six starts for the Rockies this year but returned on May 30th for six strong innings at home against the Giants. We don’t have much data on Feltner. But I can tell you he’s no good! Big league career 5.24 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 19% K%, and 9% BB%. We could say that he’s not as bad as some of the other Rockies SPs we find. But my goodness this is one of the biggest differentials I’ve ever seen here:
The Brewers projection data:
Crazy stuff here, but the prices are sky high. I’d call it GOOD CHALK, I suppose.
Cardinals vs. Brady Singer
Dodgers vs. Reid Detmers
The Cards and Dodgers are tied for #2, both with 5.38 run implications.
Neither pop like crazy for me. The Cards game is in St. Louis, which is a lot better of a spot for Singer than in Cincy. And we know what Reid Detmers is capable of.
There are good plays on both offenses, but I’m not going out of my way to get them.
I do like the prices on Herrera/Burleson/Walker. So they’ll go into consideration.
Detmers splits aren’t what I thought they’d be. I thought he’d really dominate lefties but have some trouble against righties.
He’s struck out more righties than lefties this year. Somehow, his slider works really well to righties (55% Strike%, .233 xwOBA). His changeup, not so much, but it’s been fine. I think Detmers is a good pitcher.
Rockies vs. Sproat
Sproat’s been pitching better as the year has progressed.
He has an 11.5% K-BB% with a 4.42 JA ERA, though, so we’re not really buying into him as a good pitcher. Especially not in Coors where it’s 83 degrees tonight.
He has some reverse-ish splits himself with the 27% K% against lefties, but he gets hit hard by both sides with the .350 xwOBA on both sides.
We’re going to like this Jake McCarthy play a ton.
Those are some cheap tags at the top of the lineup for a Coors game against a hittable righty.
Pitchers
Ryan Weathers ($9,300) vs. Red Sox
We saw Trevor Rogers exploit the Red Sox yesterday, and now they’ll face another lefty. A much better one at that. Weathers:
The Yankees are hurting without Judge. It’s a big loss, and that hurts the SPs too as their win odds go down. The Yanks are -149 here as the they line up against Sonny Gray, a pretty good arm.
Weathers has that pristine 21.6% K-BB% this year, but he does have a home run issue with the 23.5 PA/HR. This game’s in Yankees Stadium, where Weathers has given up 7 of his 11 homers. But who exactly is going to hurt Weathers in this regard in the Boston lineup? We have only two high barrel rates with Contreras and Rafaela.
It’s not a scary lineup. The bottom of it is really bad. The risk is still kinda high for a $9.3K pitcher.
Parker Messick ($9,600) vs. Rangers
IN TEXAS.
The Rangers are hitting .233/.298/.355 this year at home with a .298 xwOBA. That’s really, really bad. This is one of the best matchups in the league this year. But look - Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford return TONIGHT. Those two haven’t done well this year while healthy:
→ Seager: .630 OPS in 180 PA
→ Langford: .636 OPS in 84 PA
But they’re big upgrades from who's been playing for Texas in their absence. The projections have both of them back in the lineup, and still, Messick is right up at the top of the board.
Weathers 17.9 points
Messick 17.8 points
Yesavage 16.4 points
King 15.3 points
Rasmussen 15.3 points
And Messick has been awesome this year. A 20% K%-BB% with a .286 xwOBA allowed. He’s given up six homers and a .233 xBA. He’s terrific, so he’s clearly a top play for cash.
Trey Yesavage ($9,000) vs. Orioles
Seven walks last time. I don’t think we can call him trustworthy. If he were $1000 cheaper I’d think about it. He’s only had the one bad start, and the pitch counts are firmly in the 90s now.
He was excellent before that last one. I think he’s a great tourney play but probably not quite right for cash.
Michael King ($8,600) vs. Mets
We have bad Michael King again all of a sudden.
Ten hits, eight earned, and a 6:5 K:BB the last two. He’s not a great DFS play, and the projections constantly show that because of his lack of ceiling. When he does well, it’s usually not by striking out seven or eight. His 10.6% BB% on the year is always a struggle for him. He has one start above 30 fantasy points this year, so I think that’s enough to just take him off the board for me.
Drew Rasmussen ($8,500) vs. Marlins
This is a bad lineup.
The two big power threats (Caissie and Stowers) have had tough years. And nobody else really makes up for it. I’m a little surprised at the lower projection on Rasmussen tonight. I don’t think he’s going to be used very much by the field. He got touched up last time out for five earned runs.
We have the same problem as we do with Michael King in that Rasmussen doesn’t throw up 30-point games hardly ever. He has one of them this year with his 23% K%.
But I’m not opposed to the idea. He’s a -135 favorite in Miami, a pretty good place to pitch.
I guess the difference-maker is shown by the matchups model. This is a high contact lineup against right-handed pitchers like Rasmussen.
Not much power at all, but not much strikeout. That plus the usual 90-pitch max on Rasmussen means a good outing will be like 23 points for him, which we can live without.
Sonny Gray ($8,300) vs. Yankees
He’s been mostly good since getting off the IL.
But his strikeout rate sits at 20% for the year.
The Yankees aren’t a bad matchup now with Judge out. They have a .279 xwOBA since he got hurt, which is 101 total PA sample, but I mean look at the names. Who here scares you besides Ben Rice?
that’s a really weak bottom four with only one true stud hitter. So I’m fine with Gray in tourneys. Probably not for cash, though.
Roki Sasaki ($7,700) vs. Angels
This is your most interesting man of the night. Roki gets the nut matchup with the Angels, and he’s been cruuuuising.
Since May 11th:
→ 16.1% SwStr%
→ 31.7% Ball%
→ 27% K%
→ 4.5% BB%
→ 23% K-BB%
→ 49% GB%
That’s an elite 3.01 JA ERA over the four weeks. And this is the beauty of advanced stats. His walk problem has been gone for little while now, and we can believe in that because of the 31.7% Ball%.
He’s throwing his heater for strikes. And the velo came way up on it last time.
And he has the splitter and slider as great putaway pitches. I’m really curious to see what the cash game ownership will be. Probably not very high. But I’m diving in head first man. Sign me up for some Roki in cash! The field is going to get there eventually too, because I believe this guy is really good now. So let’s beat them to it.
Martin Perez ($6,800) vs. PIT
The Pirates haven’t seen a lefty in a little while, but here’s one tonight. The Bucs have a .316 xwOBA against lefties with a 27% K%. Nothing good there. Lots of trouble with lefties when they’re so reliant on Lowe/Cruz/O’Hearn/Horwitz for their offense.
So it’s a good matchup. Perez is a -144 favorite. But is he good at all?
The box score would tell you yes: 2.79 ERA, 1.06 WHIP.
But the underlying business would tell you no:
A 4.60 JA ERA. His 9.4% SwStr% and 37.5% Ball% tell you that he’s no good. He’s good at avoiding the homer with the 45.5% GB% and 7.7% Brl%, and the Pirates do boost K’s…
I think we should take a look at the matchups model to get some help:
It would seem to be soft-contact city in Atlanta tonight. I can’t believe we’ve gotta to this point, but yeah - Perez is a solid value play tonight.
Here’s a look at the ownership:
Pretty spread out, but I think people will play Messick in cash heavily. With some mixtures of Weathers/Sasaki/Perez as the next highest owned. That’s my guess.
Christian Scott ($7,600) has some good news in the profile and a good matchup against San Diego. But I’m not sure I trust him. His fastball isn’t good, and the Mets lineup looks pretty nice in the matchups model.
For now, I’m on Messick + Roki for cash.
The tourney options I’d play: Weathers, Messick, Gray, Yesavage, Perez, Roki, Detmers, Scott
The model’s favorite play under 10% ownership is Sonny Gray, so feel free to anchor your tourney lineups with him. I think people are going to underestimate how much Judge means to the Yankees lineup.
Hitter Stacks
The obvious/popular stacks
Brewers vs. Feltner
Rockies vs. Sproat
Cardinals vs. Singer
Some other spots you can get lower ownership on:
Braves vs. Mitch Keller
Guardians vs. Kumar Rocker
Blue Jays vs. Brandon Young
Rays vs. Ryan Gusto
Athletics vs. Pete Lambert
Royals vs. Zebby Matthews
Hitters by Position
Catchers
The Royals keep rolling out Carter Jensen in the lead-off spot. And it’s not working!
It’s only 31 PAa and six games since Maikel Garcia got hurt. Garcia avoided the IL, so maybe that experiment with Jensen will end tonight. But he’s going to project well as the lead-off man. It’s a very valuable spot to be in.
And tonight, the Royals get Zebby Matthews, who can give up a bunch of bombs.
In the same lineup, we keep getting Salvador Perez ($3,500) popping up on the value board as his prices have been low. Zebby somehow has been way better against lefties this year (13% K% vs. RHB, 34% against LHB). That flummoxes me. Zebby comes right at hitters with a 4.2% BB%, and that’s good for Perez and his swing-heavy ways. But I don’t think either play is optimal.
William Contreras ($5,700) is priced way up, but he’s the top projected bat. We want some exposure to the Brewers lineup. I’m not sure if Contreras and his lack of HR/SB ability is the way to go about that. But he will make my short list.
Hunter Goodman ($4,900) is on the other side of the Coors game.
And the last guy above $4K I’d consider is Ivan Herrera ($4,300) against Singer. Herrera’s a really good hitter and he’s in the thick of a lineup that has its projected boosted up against a bad pitcher and bullpen tonight.
The other value is Carlos Narvaez ($2,200) against a lefty. He hits lefties decently well and has some extra HR upside in Yankees Stadium. I’m fine punting the position tonight, but we’ll have to see what we find elsewhere.
TOP PLAY: CONTRERAS, HERRERA
TOP VALUE: NARVAEZ
First Base
It’s not on Ohtani night for me. Jake Bauers ($5,300) is the #2 play here. $5,300 for him seems kinda crazy, but it’s Coors against a righty so it makes sense.
Alec Burleson ($4,100) and Kyle Manzardo ($2,900) are plays I’m fond of. Burleson matches up very well with Singer. Manzardo has big home run upside, but this game is in Texas, which huts, we think. At the same time, it’s Kumar Rocker for the Rangers. Rocker has a 19.7% K% and 13.4% BB% against lefties with a 9.4% Brl% allowed. Sweet matchup for Manzardo, and it’s pretty warm in Arlington tonight.
TOP PLAY: JAKE BAUERS
TOP VALUES: MANZARDO, SHEETS
Second Base
Brice Turang ($6,200) and Ketel Marte ($5,300) are in their own tier. Turang really stands out with a season-high 11.59-point projection. Sixty-two hundred though! This is what DFS such a good game, right? You have to weigh in the price. Given that Turang can score points through hits, homers, and steals, I think that’s a good way to play the Brewers.
Marte gets another lefty in Foster Griffin. And Marte is still a better hitter as a righty:
So it’s Turang for me, but Marte is I need the $900.
It’s the usual story in the value column. Edwin Arroyo ($2,000) is stone min price, but he’s 1/8 with a single and six strikeouts. Not making an immediate impact to say the least.
Nick Loftin ($2,400) is usually showing up here. But he has all of six homers and two steals with a batting average near .200 in his big league career. I think it’s best to avoid these bad hitters even if they are super cheap.
And Willi Castro ($4,000) will garner some ownership against Sproat in Coors. Not that he’s earned it. But he’s hitting .329/.378/.427 at home this year. So he’s fine.
TOP PLAYS: TURANG, KETEL, WETHERHOLT
TOP VALUES: CASTRO, ARROYO
Third Base
Jose Ramirez gets Rocker. But he’s done most of his damage this year from the right side of the plate, where he won’t be to start this game.
Castro is also at this position, which boosts the ownership and gives us too temptations to play him.
Junior Caminero ($5,600) is a nice leverage play at 3% ownership. But Gusto can keep guys on the ground (50% GB%, 4 HR given up in 47.2 innings between MLB and AAA this year), so that’s not a cash play.
I’m hating the values here. Really not much to like. So maybe we’re best trying to get to Willi Castro here.
Shortstop
The Bobby Witt trend:
He does not consistently deliver homers. But he gets on base a ton and steals a bunch of bases. He’s scored 12+ points in five straight despite not having a homer. Against Zebby… it’s not a smash play, but a good one as normal.
David Hamilton ($4,000) should hit 9th for the Brewers. That correlates him with Turang hitting right behind him. Hamilton has a .629 OPS with two homers and 13 steals. His 18% K% gets balls into play, which is good in Coors. He’s fine, but I’m hesitant on a $4K play for a 9-hole guy.
There’s not much to like at shortstop. I think it’ll be tough to afford Witt, but he’s the top play by two points:
Outfield
It’s pretty clear that we want Jackson Chourio and Jake McCarthy in our lineups tonight. That might even be a “start here” point.
Yelich hits everything on the ground, lowering his ceiling.
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,800) is a nice play against Keller. His ownership is going to be very low. That’s appealing, even in cash.
I like finding these dudes I’ve never heard of before. We have that with one Jase Bowen:
He hit .292/.362/.600 with 13 homers and seven steals in AAA (PCL though) and that got him the call-up when they cut Castellanos. He’s supposedly hitting 7th tonight against Scott. And that might work. We probably need one of these ugly $2K plays. We have Spencer Jones at the same price as he’s been recalled to fill in for Judge. And Tommy Troy ($2,300) is also down there in price, so we have replacement options.
The Lineup Build
Here’s where I start:
SP Messick
SP Roki
3B Castro
OF Chourio
OF McCarthy
OF Bowen
That leaves $4,250/slot. We can fill the rest of it out this way:
I was left with $2,000 for a catcher. Sandy Leon is projected to be the Braves backstop tonight. And we’ll know if that’s the case well before lock. So I’ll start there.
I could very well get off of Witt to spend up at catcher or first base or the OF3. I just don’t see any other good options. Maybe Andruw Monasterio ($2,400) against the lefty (Weather) if he’s in the lineup.
Lots of tweaking to do still, but that’s my starting point.
I’ll leave it to you to figure out the rest! Drop a “like” here if you read this!