Happy Thanksgiving from MLB DW!
And some trend analysis
As you can probably tell by the surge of November content, I’m trying to become really legit. I want this place to run like a legit big-time publication. And one thing that big-time publications do is wish people happy fill in the blank when a holiday hits.
Through the magic of post-scheduling, I’m having this hit your inbox on Thanksgiving morning. If you’re reading this right away, I’m currently playing flag football with my high school friends. Here’s hoping that I don’t injure myself. Although the only body parts that matter to my income-making abilities are my brain, eyes, and fingers. I can take a broken leg or a torn ACL and keep right on chugging. Although with three kids, I’d rather have everything in tact.
Thanksgiving isn’t an explicitly Christian holiday. You could make an argument that it is, I guess, but I think that would be decently weak. Christmas and Easter are the Christian holidays. In fact, the word “holiday” means “holy day”, so I take some exception with calling things like Thanksgiving and the Fourth of July holidays. There’s nothing holy about them. Not to say they aren’t good, virtuous, and useful holidays. But if I ran the world, we’d have a different word to use. Christmas and Easter are holy, the other ones are something else.
I’ve never had much of a problem with contentment or thankfulness. That is probably just because I’ve had a really good life. Shout to my parents and my wife and whatever amount of luck went into it, but I’ve got everything I could ever need and then some.
But yeah, there are people that have 99th-percentile lives and still aren’t happy. There’s a real issue with contentment out there.
Let’s keep things in-house. I’m very thankful for the readers. It’s been a blast running all of this stuff. So I’d like to once again say thanks to all of you, and I hope you all find some warmth, contentment, and gratefulness today.
Now let’s talk about some fantasy baseball business real quick, just so this doesn’t look like some lame sap post.
On the NFBC ADP Dashboard, you’ll find TREND DATA. That has been added recently. I look at L3 and L7 and compare that ADP with the full draft season’s worth of data. And then we see guys who are going in either direction. That dashboard is FREE. I also have some COMPETITION as other fantasy baseball publications have started their own ADP tools! So now it’s not enough to just have the thing, I have to be better than them. And that sucks. It’s better to not have competition. I mean, it’s way better for you, but it’s worse for me. I’d rather be the only one on the planet allowed to talk about fantasy baseball. Imagine the business I’d command.
So, anyway, let me know what I can add to this bad boy to earn my place at the top. Nothing is more important to me than being known as the guy with the best NFBC ADP Tracker tool. Nothing.
Up-Trenders
At this point in the year, this stuff is always going to correspond with roster changes or news reports. A guy gets traded, or a teammate gets traded and it opens up playing time, or an injury happens, whatever - you get it. Those are the kinds of things that move ADP while no games are being played.
This Lourdes Gurriel thing is weird, and it shows a third option. Sometimes, you just get a drafter who isn’t paying attention. Somebody pulled on Lourdes at pick #270 the other day.
Gurriel tore his ACL in September. I can’t see how he’d be ready at the beginning of the season, and he also just isn’t very good in the first place. I think a 270 ADP would be inappropriate even if he were healthy. The guy is 32, which, yeah, that’s younger than I thought, but it’s still old. I’m three years older than this guy. That’s ridiculous.
There are plenty of relievers in that trend data above. Phil Maton recently signed with the Cubs, and there are saves available for the Cubs. That explains that.
Carson Benge gets an upgrade since Brandon Nimmo has bounced out of town. There’s an OF spot open, which gives Benge a shot to be in the lineup earlier than we previously thought possible. He’s a 22-year-old prospect with big fScores:
So that’s interesting. But let’s look inside the top 300:
The Japanese guys will get some helium as their signing day gets closer. The Imai guy said he hates the Dodgers and doesn’t want to play with other Japanese people. An interesting thing to say, for sure. Is he like a traitor to his homeland? Or does he want to command all of the attention of the Japanese residents of his new hometown? Whatever it was, he’s up 60 picks in ADP lately.
I suppose him not landing with the Dodgers would be a good thing. The Dodgers are the one team you could see signing him and then not having a spot in the rotation for him.
Griffin Jax could end up in the Rays rotation, and Troy Melton looks like a strong candidate to be the Tigers SP2 or SP3 next year. He was too cheap at the beginning, but there is the risk that he’s back in the bullpen. There’s also the risk that he just sucks. More on Melton coming in the Tigers preview for sure.
Dang, I am running out of time. Let’s get to the other side of things.
Down-Trenders
Jonah Heim was CUT. Corbin Burnes is falling as people realize he’s not going to be in the rotation until at least July. Emmanuel Clase is going to prison. And that’s by far the coolest reason to see your ADP fall, right? Class was going around picking 318 early on, and then he was like Hey, yeah, I’ll prob be tied up next year. He’s still going at 421.
Actually, that’s not true. Because if he doesn’t get drafted, the ADP doesn’t change. He hasn’t been drafted since November 18th.
Personally, I don’t see why the guy has to go to jail. Never let him play pro ball in America again, yes, but he can just go home and chill. At that same time, I get wanting to send a message and making an example out of some violators. Look man, I’m not in charge of stuff, and that’s a good thing.
The other guy that makes sense is here is Jeremiah Jackson. He was probably the OF4 or OF5 on the Orioles before the Taylor Ward trade, now he’ll need multiple developments to happen to get him back in the fold. He’s headed for AAA again as things currently stand.
That’s what I have to say. Just wanted to ram something out there for you guys to read on Thanksgiving, if reading fantasy baseball stuff on Thanksgiving is the kinda stuff you’re into. God bless, and Happy Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving to you, as well! I am grateful for your incredible content and for the exciting new 30-team fantasy league. Thanks for including me! Have an awesome day!