Hitters With Per-Game Fantasy Upside
Hitters with low volume projections who perform well on a per-game basis
One way to find cheap fantasy upside in your draft is to find the players who are projected to be very efficient in scoring fantasy points, but lack the volume projection needed to get there.
Byron Buxton is a decent example of this from last year. His projections did not look very appealing a year ago because the projected playing time was so low. But he stayed healthy, played close to a full year, and smashed.
There are also lesser name value examples like Jose Caballero. We knew he’d steal a bunch of bases when in there, but we really had no idea how much he’d play last year. With the help of some injuries and his versatility, he played a bunch and led the league in steals.
So, let’s look for these sorts of guys for 2026. I’ve compared fantasy points projections with fantasy points per plate appearance projections. We’re looking for the players who project to score points very efficiently, but have lower PA projections than what you really want to put on your team. This can work out in two ways.
The first way is what we said above, and it’s obvious. What if these players simply play more than we expect them to?
The second way has to do with league type. My home league, for example, has daily lineup changes. So I can draft Kerry Carpenter and not get fully punished for the days he’s sitting against a left-handed pitcher. I’m able to sub somebody else in there daily for the guys on my team who aren’t in the lineup that day. These per-game contributors are very valuable for those situations. They’ll be great for you when you can use them, and you can get decent replacement value in that slot when they’re benched. At the end of the year, their numbers won’t look all that great, but their actual benefit to your fantasy team should be solid. And you get really cheap draft prices on them for that reason.
So let’s get through some names!
THE STEALS SPECIALIST
A lot of the names at the top of the list are of this type of player. The guy who doesn’t hit well enough to be in the daily starting nine, but that wreaks havoc on the bases and steals bases at an elite rate.
Jorge Mateo (ADP 640)
David Hamilton (ADP 580)
Will Benson (ADP 600)
Jose Caballero (ADP 200)
Those first three should not be drafted in any league that drafts fewer than 500 players. But if an injury or two forces them into their MLB team’s lineup, there’s a strong case to be made that they should be in yours if you’re not doing great in steals.
Jose Caballero is here, of course. And it’s a pretty nice situation for him right now, as I’ve talked about a lot lately.
Anthony Volpe will miss at least most of April, and probably all of it, as he recovers from shoulder surgery. That pencils in Caballero at shortstop. Once Volpe gets back, you’d expect him to take the reins at shortstop. The good news for Caballero is that he can play second, third, and outfield. And more good news is that the Yankees are planning to start Ryan McMahon at third right now, and that might go pretty poorly. McMahon had a .693 OPS last year, and a .641 with the Yankees. It’s tough to say he’s earned a long leash at that spot.
THE WEAK-SIDE PLATOON SPECIALIST
Romy Gonzalez
Rob Refsnyder
Randal Grichuk
Paul Goldschmidt
Austin Hays
There seem to be more and more of these types every year as MLB teams really narrow in on the data and the platoon advantages they have. Of course, every team would love to have a dozen hitters who can mash off both pitcher hands, but not every team has the luxury. There are more than the five names I’ve listed above, but those are the five most obvious to me.
All of those guys will likely put up some strong numbers for you when you can get them into your fantasy lineup when they’re facing a lefty 2-3 times in a game. But they will all start the game on the bench more often than they start the game in the lineup. 74% of starts last year were made by righties. So that doesn’t bode well for these guys.
The other point to be made here is that even if, for example, Ben Rice gets hurt, Paul Goldschmidt has to start every day. He’s not going to help you much overall, because he doesn’t hit righties well at all. He was terrible against righties last year. So it’s not a situation where you’d even really upgrade them if they do end up being an everyday guy.
It’s a very specific league type where these are worthwhile picks, but those leagues do exist - and it’s good to know about these names.
Jasson Dominguez
Another Yankee here. Dominguez played 123 games last year with a .791 OPS, 10 homers, and 23 steals. Not the greatest real-life performance, but pretty solid for fantasy. He’s cheap in fantasy leagues this year (ADP 312), and that’s almost entirely because of the projected playing time. The Bat X and ATC both say 60 games played for Dominguez.
So that’s a concern, but that projection does seem crazy to me. The Yankees outfield is pretty set. You’ve got your everyday locks in Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, and then Trent Grisham, who hit righties well enough last year to justify being in there.
The most logical path for Dominguez is to take over at DH when Giancarlo Stanton goes down. But it’s fair enough to say that Dominguez is on the outside of the Opening Day lineup looking in.
What I don’t buy is the idea that the Yankees are somewhat giving up on him. He’s 23 years old and, again, flashed some pretty good stuff with the bat last year. If Dominguez does take over for Grisham or is just forced into the lineup by injury, I think he’s a very nice pick for categories-based fantasy leagues this year (steals aren’t as important in most points leagues).
Ryan Waldschmidt
It’s not happening on Opening Day. Waldschmidt has already been re-assigned. But it shouldn’t be too long before we see Waldy in the outfield for the D’Backs.
The Bat X is a big fan. Here’s the 600 PA projection:
→ .247/.321/.377, 13 HR, 15 SB
Okay so that’s not great, but it’s a high projection relative to other rookies. Projection systems, especially The Bat, hate rookies. The fScores also backs him up:
→ 99 Hit Tool, 107 Power, 107 Speed, 119 Discipline
That’s a high-floor player. He should be owned in most 12-teams when he gets called up.
Tyler O’Neill
He’s a bit of a lefty masher with a long injury rap sheet. And with the Orioles roster being what it is, he might not even play every day while healthy. But we still think the guy can hit dingers. The Bat X 600 PA pace gives him 31 bombs and 83 RBI. Who knows, maybe a couple of injuries happen, O’Neill stays healthy, and he has another big power year to add to his resume.
Jett Williams
The main piece of the return in the Freddy Peralta trade was Jett Williams. He’s going to AAA to start the year, but with Caleb Durbin out of town and Joey Ortiz not being much of a hitter, there’s some room for Jett to play on the left side of that Brewers infield this year.
The Bat X, with my 600 PA adjustment, has a projection of 15 homers and 19 steals. That’s useful. The batting average is low, as it will be for almost anybody who hasn’t seen the Majors yet. The Bat X says .223. And that’s higher than the other systems. But we can believe he can do a lot better than that. He’s speedy and was a 22-24% K% guy in the minors. I don’t think he’ll be hitting .270 any time soon, but you could get a nice supply of homers + steals with a .250 batting average.
Coby Mayo
With the Jordan Westburg injury, Mayo should be in the Orioles lineup as their starting third baseman early on in the year. There’s huge power with the guy (54 bombs in 233 minor league games from 2023-2024), but a mess of strikeouts (27% K% in the minors last year, 29% in the Majors).
He’s still young (24) and has plenty of room for growth. Nobody is giving him much attention this year after his couple of “failed” stints in the Majors. You might get a really nice home run rate out of the guy if he can make even a small step forward with contact and launch angle stuff.
Max Muncy
He’s crazy injury-prone and isn’t a full-time player against lefties. But when he’s in there against righties, he’s mashing and driving in a ton of runs. And now they have Kyle Tucker ahead of him. And remember the story last year with his vision? He got these glasses to fix some issues early on in the year and it seemed to be a difference-maker. From May 1st on, he hit .264/.403/.541 with 18 homers (15.2 PA/HR). When Muncy is in the Dodgers lineup, you want him in your fantasy lineup.
Kerry Carpenter
Carpenter is turning into a Muncy-lite. He’s played 87 and 130 games the last two years (130 being last year). He got a bit more run against lefties last year, but he’s never going to be a 150-game guy.
I suppose the bigger question is about actual performance. After a .932 OPS in those 87 games in 2024, he fell to .788 last year (.252/.291/.497).
So you’re getting the bombs, but questionable AVG and OBP, and he has one steal in the last two years.
Giancarlo Stanton
This list would not be complete without Stanton. The guy recently said he can’t open a bag of chips because of elbow pain. So it doesn’t seem like he’ll be playing 100 games this year. I assume the elbow stuff was going on last year, and he had one of the best per-game seasons of his career last year (.273/.350/.594, .944 OPS, 11.6 PA/HR). He’s another dude where you’ll see him on your IL for at least half of the year, but you’ll be happy to start him when he’s healthy.
Matt Wallner
Wallner has steadily returned home run rates above 5% (that’s HR/PA, the other way around gives him about an 18 PA/HR). He’s an elite and somehow underrated power hitter. But he’s usually sitting against lefties and has a career high of 104 games played (last year). So the volume is unlikely to be there.
That said, the Twins don’t have a ton on the roster right now. And Wallner is on the strong side of the platoon as a lefty with a career 145 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
I think he’s a steal in any daily changes league at his ADP of 320.