Japan Series Game One Preview
The season begins as the Dodgers take on the Cubs early Tuesday morning.
It’s time for some regular season baseball. It does not feel anywhere near as exciting as the true Opening Day, but we have a couple of games in the Tokyo Dome that count, so I’ve got some projections and some things to say.
I will use this post to give you paid subscribers the new links to the projections this year, so scroll to the bottom of the post to get those.
Game Preview
It’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Shota Imanaga to get us started. The two big SP names who came over from Japan last year, and they both had successful first seasons in the Majors. The model has landed in the high 70s for each guy’s pitch count.
If either guy is cruising, I’d imagine they’d be allowed to push toward 90 or so, but this early on in the season, you’re going to see pitch counts around 80. The other thing that brings the projection down is the chance of a quick hook. Yamamoto’s first start of the year in the Korea series last March lasted just one inning as he did not have the command and ended up throwing 30+ pitches in the first. These teams are not going to want to put a ton of stress on their starters out of the gate, so one laborious inning early on can cut the start very short.
The projected lines:
Yamamoto: 4.60 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 5.5 K, 1.5 BB
Imanaga: 4.76 IP, 4.6 H, 2.2 ER, 4.6 K, 1.2 BB
I know that you can’t actually throw 4.6 innings, this is just how projections work.
The big storyline is that Mookie Betts will miss this series due to his recovery from a brutal illness. My model is not good at predicting who will win games, but it does give the Cubs a 5-4.5 win in this one.
Player Props
Using last year’s rules, there is not a single recommended prop bet here. But it’s the first game of the season, so we’ve gotta get some action, right? The best bets:
Shota Imanaga Under 4.5 K (+133 on BetRivers)
Max Muncy Under 0.5 BB (-140 on DraftKings)
Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 BB (-280 on DraftKings)
If you’re looking for a homer bet, Kyle Tucker +540 on FanDuel is the best I can offer you. Personally, I’m eyeing up the over 7.5 runs. We have seen pitchers struggle with command early on, and Imanaga is a guy who can give up the long ball, so I could see the Dodgers running into a two or three-run homer early on. But that’s a feel pick rather than a mathematical one.
That’s all I really have to say, and there’s a ton more work to do to get ready for the season, so I’m going to get back to it!