JA's Bet of the Day - July 1st Early Slate
Taking advantage of the great spots for Sheets + Gore
Trevor is out today, so I’m getting in the action and dropping a couple of plays. I like the idea of just carefully putting together ONE play per day and seeing what we can do with it.
I have this one tracking resource that looks compares the projections when they’re using the projected lineups with the projections when the lineups come out. We can see the impact of the lineup coming in like in this way.
I’ll share it below the paywall at the end of this.
The guy I’m eye-balling today is Gavin Sheets. He was projected to hit 5th against Colin Rea today and given a 9.8-point projection. But now he’s actually hitting 2nd, and look at what that does to the projection! He’s up to 10.4, a +.67 difference - pretty large.
Hitting 2nd for the Padres is a great spot for R+RBI, especially since this hitting weather looks so elite.
What I like to do the most is put together 2-3 legs that are likely to hit to build a parlay up to around even money. I project Sheets for 2.9 H+R+RBI, so that would give us a really good chance at grabbing 2+ H+R+RBI. So that’s where we’ll begin:
GAVIN SHEETS 2+ H+R+RBI (-149)
For the second spot, we’re going to embrace MacKenzie Gore’s strikeout projection. It’s near an eight-K projection. The Guardians have a history of limiting strikeouts, but that’s not the case with this current lineup. Their lineup leads the slate in strikeout rate:
I’ve been doing this for awhile, so I know better than to trust Gore. So I’m buying this down to 5+ strikeouts for -486. That gets us to +101 for the parlay.
Here’s your play of the day for the early slate:
Projection and matchup approved!