July 22 MLB DraftKings Slate Analysis
Let’s get back to it! I’m super excited for the second half and to get back into the DFS game. I’ve made a contest for anybody to join, $5 entry, top 3 win - so jump on in!
https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/129117252
Pitchers
Aces aplenty on the board tonight, so we don’t want to get cute - just pick two of them. Here’s the pool:
Scherzer $10,400 vs. SD
Burnes $10,200 vs. COL
Gausman $9,100 vs. BOS
Ohtani $9,000 vs. ATL
Morton $8,800 vs. LAA
Giolito $7,800 vs. CLE
It’s worthwhile to say that Ohtani has been every bit as good as Scherzer and Burnes this year, so those three make the top three. I think the move would be to pick two of those, but probably Ohtani in there since he’s much cheaper.
Charlie Morton has the best matchup, but has been a bit less convincing than the rest and has even regressed [again] lately, he’ll probably be fine because this Angels lineup is just egregious - but Ohtani is preferred. Giolito is the salary saver, and he just recently put up 25 points against Cleveland, but this matchup with the Guardians makes it tough for him to get strikeouts; I wouldn’t be surprised to see him only get 3 or 4 here and struggle to get to 20 points - and we’ve seen that’s prone to the complete blow-up this year too. So my per-dollar ranks would probably be:
Burnes
Scherzer
Ohtani
Morton
Giolito
Gausman
Pitchers to Pick On
Brewers vs. Antonio Senzatela
Senzatela has a putrid 22.2% CSW% this year and that’s with a good BB% of 5.4%. That means that tons of balls are put into play off of him, which is what we want to see. Hitters have scored 2.04 DraftKings points per PA in games that Senzatela starts.
Yelich $4900
Wong $4200
Adames $4400
Tellez $3900
Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin
A 19.5% K% and a 7.3% BB% isn’t the worst thing in the world, but the .500 SLG and 9.7% Brl% show that he can give up points in a hurry at times. Righties have hit .309 and slugged .503 off of him with an 11.2% Brl%, so we like:
Marte $5000
Walker $3500
Rojas $4200
Luplow $2700
Kelly $3200
That lineup has been all over the place this year, but recently Kelly has been leading off against lefties. I will almost surely play whoever is leading off for them, because it will likely be Kelly, Luplow, or Rojas.
Astros vs. Marco Gonzales
Gonzales is just the same guy he’s been for years. A 23.6% CSW%, a 12.3% K%, a 6.7% Brl%, a 46% GB%. It’s not like he’s getting smoked every time out, but the Astros lineup is so good that I don’t imagine he does well tonight. The hitter splits against him are pretty similar, so I wouldn’t be prioritizing lefties or righties here just because of that fact.
Alvarez $5700
Altuve $5200
Bregman $4700
Pena $4600
Tucker $4900
Hitter Values
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