July 8th DFS Main Slate Breakdown
Examining the eight-game turbo slate on DraftKings
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Weather
Nothing has changed in the 90 minutes since I wrote up the turbo slate. It’s all good to go on the weather front.
Game Info
DODGERS vs. Rockies (+1.8 above average)
The method the last couple of days has been playing Ohtani from LAD, and then you haven’t needed anybody else. Ohtani’s the only guy above 2.0 DK points per PA. The Dodgers success has been mostly with having a bunch of good to very good hitters up-and-down the lineup rather than having four guys at the top with massive OPS. Ohtani’s the only guy above .900. So Ohtani by himself (we’d call that “naked Ohtani” in NFL DFS lingo, but we should probably come up with a different term) is good again for tonight if the money is there.
Someone named Gabriel Hughes (RHP) is pitching for the Rockies.
So let’s take a gander at him. This will be his first MLB start, but he does have three innings out of the bullpen this year, that happened five days ago. Prior to that he was a starter in AAA, and he did pretty well. Here’s the mix:
Lots of 93mph fastballs and now much swing-and-miss on that pitch. But five pitches behind it and a good sweeper, it would seem.
He has the advantage of this not being in Coors and the Dodgers being wholly unfamiliar with him. I don’t know how seriously the Dodgers take their regular-season games. It wouldn’t surprise me if they just kinda coasted through it and they’re not in the film room right now watching this guy’s AAA starts.
Hughes did a decent job keeping the ball on the ground and has allowed just two homers in almost 50 innings this year.
My gut feel (which is worthless) is that this could be a little bit of a letdown spot for the Dodgers. There’s a good chance Hughes is much better than most of the rest of their pitching staff. So I don’t know, I guess I’m once again unenthused with the idea of stacking Dodgers in cash.
METS vs. Royals (+1.65 Above Average)
This will be an opener situation for the Royals (Steven Cruz). And they do not have a good bullpen behind him. But bullpen games are typically good for the pitching team as they can pick their matchups, which helps.
Cruz will be in there for 1-2 innings and then this bullpen gets at it:
Fine spot for the Mets, who we profited on bigly last night. But not as good as getting a full array of pitches from Seth Lugo, I don’t think.
Reds vs. Phillies Bullpen Game
I don’t know who is starting for the Phils. I just put Max Lazar in there cause the projections didn’t know what to do and I had to pick someone.
The Phillies bullpen is good. But they’ll have to get through the bulk of the game before using the big boys.
As with any bullpen, there are very bad MLB pitchers in the middle of it.
But four lefties and four righties work for them. They’ll be able to get the platoon advantage when they want it, and that’s bad for the Reds.
So I’m not in love with this spot, either! We’re 0/3.
Padres vs. D’Backs (Jose Cabrera) +0.83 above average
Teams have trouble covering 6-7 games a week at this point in the season, apparently! Another unknown name here. Jose Cabrera has been in the 70-pitch range with Arizona, so he can probably shoulder 4-5 innings here.
But he’s not good at all. BUT this game’s in San Diego, where only 7.5 runs per game are being scored (the second-lowest in the league to Seattle).
Only one lefty available for the D’Backs tonight, though. So the Padres lefties are in a decent spot. Except that their lefties aren’t good!
So definitely no run-away spot for a team offense on this slate. Let’s go to the individual players.