June 21st DraftKings Analysis

Welcome to Tuesday night, one of the two best nights of baseball of the week! We’re back here to analyze this slate to death. We’re making half of this free for the masses again, but the full projections, dashboards, and my player pool and example lineup are only going out to the paid members ($5/month!)

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Pitchers

All of the aces pitched yesterday so we have none left over. Let’s just talk briefly about every pitcher of any interest at all to us, and we’ll order this by price.

Nestor Cortes vs. Rays :: $10,400

• Leads the slate in points per start (21.8)

• K% is only 22% over the last five starts

• Rays are a great matchup (.651 OPS against LHP since May 1st)

On a slate with other more bonafide aces, I wouldn’t be interested in paying this for Cortes, but he’s in consideration here because of the lack of other options, his performance this year overall, and the matchup.

Kevin Gausman vs. White Sox :: $10,200

• Certainly can’t pay him in cash (by that I mean double-up type contests or if you’re just making one lineup and looking for a decent score, as compared to putting in a lineup trying to take down a tournament)

• Interesting for tournaments if he gets the stuff back since nobody else will touch him

Dylan Cease vs. Blue Jays :: $9,800

• Blue Jays have been the toughest matchup in the league over the last month (1.97 DK/IP for opposing pitchers)

• Cease has the second-highest K% on the slate (33%), but a bad 11% BB%

• Not a cash option

Sean Manaea vs. D’Backs :: $9,000

• Strikeouts can never be trusted with this dude, and he’s down to 21% over the last five starts, but 25.5% for the year

• Arizona is a middling matchup against lefties, they hit them pretty well

Spencer Strider vs. SF :: $8,600

• Has scored 4.85 DraftKings points per inning since May 15th, the best mark on the slate

• Giants vs. RHP since 5/1: .233/.329/.388, 7% Brl%, 21.5% K%, 11.4% BB%

• I’d say he’s a cash game play at the price, but it’s not all that safe given his walk rate and the fact that Brandon Belt is back - it’s an improved lineup right now for sure

Roansy Contreras vs. CHC :: $7,400

• Has averaged 14 DK/G over the last five, 23% K%

• Upside for more strikeouts with his fastball/slider which are both sick

• Tournament play for sure, questionable for cash

Zac Gallen vs. SD :: $9,300

• He’s been bad lately and the K% is never all that good

• BUT, the Padres vs. RHP when you take away Machado: .228/.299/.356, 22.3% K%, 6.2% Brl%

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Hitter Matchups

Highest barrel rates allowed for pitchers on the slate

• Matt Swarmer (vs. PIT): 14.8%

• Roansy Contreras (vs. CHC): 12.2%

• Jose Urquidy (vs. NYM): 12.1%

Best Splits Advantages

• Cardinals RHH vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

• Pirates RHB vs. Matt Swarmer

• Braves LHB vs. Anthony DeSclafani

• Angels LHB vs. Jonathan Heasley

Top Hitters by JA Projections

• Buxton 11.63

• Trout 11.60

• Judge 11.43

• Devers 11.33

• Duran 10.68

• Goldschmidt 10.53

• Ohtani 9.95

• L Gonzalez 9.91

• Yepez 9.88

• LeMahieu 9.87

• Torres 9.80

• J Ramirez 9.57

• Alvarez 9.54

Top Projected Offenses

• NYY

• STL

• BOS

• LAA

Top Value Bats

• Jarren Duran $3300

• Jack Suwinski $2100

• Kyle Higashioka $2300

• Nomar Mazara $2000

• Oneil Cruz $2000

• Alex Kirilloff $2200

Now on to my player pool & main lineup rough draft