Late Round SPs
End Game SPs to Capitalize on SP Upside
One of the biggest edges in fantasy baseball leagues is being the guy who finds the breakout SPs before anybody else gets to them. Every year, at least a handful of SPs come into the season as hugely improved pitchers. That’s not clear initially, but by May, they’re looking like waiver wire THEFTS.
This is about the time to really start focusing on who those names could be. We have seen guys make at least a few spring starts already, and we’ve seen how drafters are reacting.
I’ll break down a bunch of potential breakout SP names who are outside of the top 250 ADP. These are names we should be drafting in the final rounds of our drafts, where it’s all profit. If they break out, we’re set; if they don’t, fine, we’re fine with replacing them on waivers.
Braxton Ashcraft
ADP 250
Ashcraft might not have SP1-SP2 upside in the fantasy game, but he seems like a guy who could be very solid. The fastball has velo, but it didn’t perform super well last year, and that could hold him back. He’s throwing more sinkers this spring, though, and anything to set up his elite slider will help.
Mike Burrows
ADP 250
He’s got himself a 30% K% this spring, so he’s on most people’s radars by now. It’s another situation where the fastball is not dominant, but he’s added a sinker to tunnel off of the four-seamer. And the devastating pitch he has is the changeup. The Astros seem to know what to do with him.
Cody Ponce
ADP 260
I don’t know much about the guy, but it’s possible he starts his MLB return season with a matchup at home against the Rockies. The Blue Jays play three at home against the Athletics prior to that series, so even if he’s the #3, it’s still a decent matchup to start.
We’ll get some looks and make some decisions from there. I have much lower confidence here than the others, but figured I’d throw him out there. The unknown does add upside, in addition to the downside. Wider range of potential outcomes.
Grayson Rodriguez
ADP 265
He’s not hurt yet! The fastball is averaging just a touch under 95 this spring, which isn’t fantastic, but it’s above that danger zone, you could say. It’s really tough to imagine this guy ever throwing 150 innings with a 27% K% or something good like that, but we’ll see. It could happen.
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