Living MLB DW Commandments: Dynasty Roster Sinners
Ignore these commandments at your own fantasy baseball team’s peril
More content from new writer John Allen. He finishes up a two-part series where he talks about some of the things he tried (the good and the bad) to fix up some dynasty teams this year. There were successes, and there were failures. He went over the successes last time in this article. Below, you’ll hear the bad news. Here he goes:
“I’d rather laugh with the sinners than cry with the saints.”
Billy Joel, “Only the Good Die Young”
Taking over the worst team in a 14-team league, I knew I needed some luck.
And I got it. The greatest single fantasy season from a catcher in baseball history. Cal Raleigh would pull this team by himself … back to last place.
Wait!? What?
Yep, I’m the guy. I took The Big Dumper’s greatest season and rode it straight to the bottom. And now it’s time to confess.
To get there, I traded away Mariners closer Andres Munoz (isn’t he always injured?), Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story (speaking of always injured), Ranger Suarez, and Pete Crow-Armstrong (he’s never going to hit more than 15 HRs, right?) for what better be a bright future.
I’d like to say that was all my sins against the MLB Data Warehouse’s Ten Commandments. But I had three teams finish last (in my defense, they were in last when I took over the dynasty teams). So here is a complete confession with those 10 commandments:
1. Play to your league rules.
I don’t like playing head-to-head leagues. And it’s for a number of reasons, but mostly it boils down to who is the best team that week and fighting against letting potentially fluky small samples win. Despite that, I joined a couple of head-to-head leagues because they were unlike any league I had played in. First, I would play two different teams each week. That meant navigating opponents with potentially different strengths. It was made all the more difficult because of the depth of categories. For hitting, it was runs, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, OPS, TB and RC (runs created). For pitching, the categories were QS, SV, HLD, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, and BAA. In those two leagues, I took over the last-place team and the third-to-last-place team. I finished last and next to last in 2025. I would love to run away screaming from these leagues, but to leave a league with a terrible team is not what I do, so I will hope for a couple more trade-ready owners to try to get a little further from the bottom.
2. Don’t look at smaller samples when larger samples are available.
In one of my head-to-head leagues in 2024, Sean Manaea killed me in the playoffs. (I know, I seem to play in a lot of H2H leagues for someone who doesn’t like them) It was part of a second half where Manaea threw a league-best 105.1 innings (after July 1) had 12 quality starts, a 3.16 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Manaea made a big mechanical change in the second half, and that seemingly unlocked his game. After the season, the Mets were believers and signed him to a three-year, $75M deal. But an oblique strain and then elbow issues caused him to miss the first half of the season. The career 4.01 ERA pitcher returned in July a shell of his 2024 second-half self. He went more than five innings just once in 12 starts and had a 5.64 ERA. In his 15th and final appearance of the season, he averaged just 83.4 mph on his fastball, down nearly 10 mph.
3. K-BB% and SIERA will always be the best quick way to judge a pitcher.
Bailey Ober broke out in 2023. He followed up with 191 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP in 2024 (plus finishing 9th in MLB in K-BB% and 14th in SIERA). I expected an even better 2025. Then Ober tried to pitch through injuries that dropped his fastball more than 1 mph. Despite the injury, I missed one glaring weakness that should have had me put him on the trade block. Ober digs giving up the long ball. For qualified pitchers in his breakout season of 2024, he was in the top 10 for most home runs per 9 innings (1.36). That jumped to 1.85 in 2025 along with a 5.10 ERA.
4. Invest in stud prospect hitters in their second year.
I’m going to stretch this a little because it was his third year, but that first year was a cup of coffee-sized.
Peter Crow-Armstrong is a great defensive center fielder. After 300+ at bats in 2024, I thought he showed what he would be in the majors: a sub .250/.300 hitter with a little pop, and good stolen base totals. So, getting Jacob Misiorowski, Harry Ford and a future first-rounder for him before the 2025 season, seemed like a good deal. Then the season started. PCA was on fire with 15 HR, 16 SB, and hitting nearly .300 heading to June. Things changed after that and he finished .247/.287/.481 with 31 HR and 35 SB. Is PCA good, bad, or somewhere in between. I guess that is not my problem anymore, but maybe I wish it was.
5. Expect regression in everything.
Several of my rosters included George Springer. Regression had already visited Springer over the past two seasons. Despite the only 20-20 season of his career in 2023, it was also the first season with a wRC+ less than 119 (103). He followed that with a worse showing in 2024 with a 94 wRC+. While he was dinged up at times, he played 299 of 324 possible games over those two seasons. If felt like time to let him go. Instead, 35-year-old Springer turned the clock back to his 20s, as he hit more than 30 HRs for the first time since 2019 and drove in more than 100 runs for the first time since 2018. I gave that up for a package that was highlighted by Braves prospect Owen Murphy, who spent most of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. And another league netted me Tigers slugging prospect Josue Briceno in the deal for Springer. I guess I’ll have to try a little patience.
6. Buy struggling players and sell overperforming players early in the year.
In April, I lived through Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams posting a 5.48 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over five starts. When May started the same, I knew he was never going to become the next great Cleveland pitcher. So, flipped Williams to fill an outfielder hole with Jung Hoo Lee, who looked like he was figuring it out with the Giants after hitting .324 in April. Their paths for the rest of the season did a Freaky Friday and I was stuck looking for starting pitching (and an outfielder who could hit) the rest of the year.
7. Look to buy raw talent, give those players a longer leash (EV, pitch velo, etc.).
Aroldis Chapman has always thrown hard. But since 2021, that heat came with a lot more walks. When the Red Sox signed Chapman to a one-year deal before the 2025 season, it was his fifth team in four years. He looked like a guy to get you some holds and maybe a handful of saves with good strikeout totals, but no longer elite ERA or WHIP. I shipped him out for injured Brewers pitcher Robert Gasser and former Dodgers DSL slugger Arnaldo Lantigua. Then Chapman became the Red Sox closer in April, and had the lowest ERA (1.17) and WHIP (0.701) of his 16-year career, saving 32 games.
8. Don’t be the first guy to draft a catcher or a relief pitcher.
I have been in an AL-only limited keeper league with no bench players for more than a decade. With 11 teams and a two-catcher league, making sure you have one decent catcher is paramount. For this auction, I was starting with two open catcher spots and was either going to spend big ($20+) for one or try to navigate getting two for a total of $30. But there were only three catchers available that I was interested in, Adley Rutschman, Yanier Diaz, and Shea Langeliers – Cal Raleigh, Salvador Perez, and Austin Wells were among the keepers. Rutschman came up first in the auction, and I bid him to $20. When he went to $21, I went to $22 and paid the most of all teams for a catcher. Diaz went later for $21 and Langeliers went much later for $14. Shea finished the year as the second-ranked catcher in our league after his .277/.325/.536 season that included 31 HRs. Rutschman cratered to a .221/.307/.366 year when he wasn’t injured.
9. Ignore spring training. And if you already are, ignore it even more.
I must confess, I thought if he could find a defensive home, Curtis Mead would be a solid fantasy asset. Not great, but the low-cost, high production player who helps you win, like his Rays’ teammate Yandy Diaz. Mead was crazy to start spring training, going 14 for his first 18. He finished spring with a league-best .543 batting average. The stories of his 20-pound weight gain promising more power and home games at a minor league park meant for the power he lacked in the minors, it all spelled breakout for the 24-year-old. In the middle of spring training, I dealt Jonathan Aranda for Mead and a 4th-round pick. But something happened on the way to the 2025 All-Star Game debut. Mead instead hit .139 through April 30. By July, he was back in Triple A and by the end of the month, he was a Chicago White Sox. Meanwhile, Aranda making that breakout jump I had been waiting for.
10. Don’t take the fantasy sports or the Internet very seriously at all.
The silver lining is all those poor decisions could help me this offseason. Some of these other owners have seen these moves and they should want to make a deal with me. The only way to dig out of these holes is with draft capital to allow for misses (which I have), embracing the tank, and a willingness to try pretty much anything because you can’t finish lower than last.