Looking at Lineups - NL Central
Examining spring lineups to try to guess at what we'll see when the season begins
Hunter and I are going through these divisions, taking lineup notes and making guesses at each team’s default lineup. We’re focusing more on the lineups against righties. Most teams have two different approaches depending on the handedness of the pitcher that day.
But we’re doing out best, and it’s giving me something to use for the daily projections early on in the season before I have enough real regular season lineups to use programmatically.
Here’s the NL Central. Please leave your comments if you have a legitimate disagreement or if I’m missing something. I could particularly use some help with the Cardinals. What do they do at DH if Herrera truly is the Opening Day catcher? What if Nootbaar starts on the IL?
Brewers
The Brewers are pretty easy. In fact, this whole division other than the Cardinals, I feel pretty good about.
My guess:
Jackson Chourio LF
Brice Turang 2B
William Contreras C
Christian Yelich DH
Andrew Vaughn 1B
Sal Frelick RF
Luis Rengifo 3B
Garrett Mitchell CF
Joey Ortiz SS
Notes:
Pretty straightforward here. I do these before looking at roster resource, and this matches what they have currently with the exception of Vaughn and Frelick being flipped.
We have Garrett Mitchell returning after another injury-plagued season. We don’t expect to get much out of him health-wise, but he’s one of the league’s better athletes and is their leader in starts in centerfield this spring, so he’ll be in there against righties while healthy
You’ll see Jakob Bauers against righties, and we’ll see plenty of David Hamilton as a utility guy as well.
Gary Sanchez is back for another year, so he’ll spell Contreras behind the plate, but remember that Contreras is usually the DH on those defensive rest days
Cubs
My guess:
Nico Hoerner 2B
Alex Bregman 3B
Michael Busch 1B
Seiya Suzuki RF
Ian Happ LF
Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
Dansby Swanson SS
Moises Ballesteros DH
Carson Kelly C
Note:
Alex Bregman hit only 2nd with the Cubs before dipping out for the WBC
Everything else is less clear. You could see Nico Hoerner at the top of the lineup if they don’t want to keep doing the Michael Busch thing up there. Both of those guys have led off a good amount this year, so it will be one of those two. If it’s Hoerner, Busch goes to #4 or #5. Maybe they move Happ further back?
Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki haven’t played together at the time of this writing, but they’ve both only hit third early in the spring. So I think they’ll be the 3-4.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is 5-6 because of the lack of OBP skills
Moises Ballesteros… not 100% sure about that myself, but we will see! He’s the best guess for being DH, but I wouldn’t lock it in.
Matt Shaw isn’t in this lineup, but we do think we’ll see him a good bit filling in for different guys. He can play infield or outfield.
Reds
My guess:
TJ Friedl CF
Matt McLain 2B
Elly De La Cruz SS
Eugenio Suarez DH
Sal Stewart 1B
Noelvi Marte RF
JJ Bleday LF
Tyler Stephenson C
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Note:
The 1-4 is clear, the Reds have done this same 1-4 a bunch of times already
Sal Stewart and Eugenio Suarez will hit in the power spots, I’m putting them at 4-5 and I feel pretty good about that
They haven’t liked Noelvi Marte near the top of the lineup. He’s been hitting in the bottom third a lot. He and JJ Bleday probably fill in behind Suarez and Stewart
Ke’Bryan Hayes’ defense keeps him in there, but he’s an easy pick for the 9 hole.
Pirates
My guess:
Oneil Cruz CF
Brandon Lowe 2B
Bryan Reynolds LF
Ryan O’Hearn RF
Marcell Ozuna DH
Spencer Horwitz 1B
Jared Triolo 3B
Nick Gonzales SS
Henry Davis C
Notes:
Jake Mangum has been the most common lead-off man, but I don’t see him being in the starting lineup on the “default days”. But if an outfielder or Ozuna or Horwitz get hurt, you’ll see Mangum playing every day in the outfield and probably being the lead-off man.
I do think you’ll see Oneil Cruz sit against lefties more than last year in favor of Mangum, the defense is so much better with Jake in the outfield
It will be Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 4-5, both they might be switched from what I have
I’m predicting Konnor Griffin to start in AA or AAA, so that gives Nick Gonzales at least a few weeks to play at shortstop
Henry Davis is the C1 here because of his defense and familiarity with Skenes and the rest of the pitching staff
Cardinals
Masyn Winn SS
JJ Wetherholt 3B
Alec Burleson 1B
Ivan Herrera DH
Jordan Walker RF
Nolan Gorman 2B
Lars Nootbaar LF
Pedro Pages C
Victor Scott CF
Notes
Ivan Herrera is going to catch. Maybe not every day right away, but they say he’s the catcher. But we’ll see about that. They don’t have a clear DH if it’s not him, so I think even for that reason you could see them just electing him to go to DH while Pages plays some behind the dish.
I’ve got JJ Wetherholt making the team and hitting 1-2 with Masyn Winn. Winn has hit lead off every time, while Wetherholt has bounced around
But this is a lot of guesswork, the Cardinals roster is messy right now.