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I had time this morning to write up both 6 game slates today. This wont always happen but here we are.
The Slate Take
Six game main slate. The implied totals don’t separate as much as the field thinks. ATH at LAA is the 9.5 game, LAD at SD comes in at 7.5, and the three middle games (TOR-NYY, BOS-KC, PIT-STL) all sit at 8.0. MIL-CHC is the dead game at 6.5. The runs are spread across more teams than usual, which means the field is going to chase the 9.5 and the ATH-LAA double stack is going to be the most popular construction in the room. That’s where the edge lives. If LAA is heavily owned and ATH is heavily owned in the same game, the leverage is to fade one side of it and use the ownership somewhere else.
Tonight’s Lesson
When the field chalks the highest total game, ownership concentration becomes the entire game. A 4 percent owned pitcher with a 20.23 projection is worth more than a 42 percent owned pitcher with a 17.85 projection, even if the 42 percent guy is slightly better, because the leverage compounds across every contest you enter.