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Sorry for the delay on this I had to run my business as I am also covering for Jon this weeks. This is a five-game main slate that starts at 1:11 PM ET, and the whole thing bends toward one ballpark in Colorado. I’m playing my usual split tonight: most of my money in a double-up with one chunk carved out for a small-field single-entry and a 20-max MME swing. The goal is simple. Be where the field is comfortable in cash, and be one pivot off them everywhere else. Short slates reward conviction, so let’s pick our spots and own them.
The Run Environment
Five games, and the implied totals tell you exactly where the money is going to herd. Here’s the board from the sheet, highest to lowest, with the arm each offense is facing.
Cubs, 6.7, Ryan Feltner
Royals, 5.7, Kumar Rocker
Tigers, 5.5, Keider Montero
Mets, 5.4, Hunter Dobbins
Rangers, 5.3, Michael Wacha
Rockies, 4.8, Edward Cabrera
The Cubs at 6.7 in Coors against Feltner is the headliner, and the field knows it. That’s where everyone piles in, and the ownership already confirms it. The trap here isn’t that the Cubs are bad, it’s that they’re the most expensive offense on the slate and the most owned, so you’re paying full freight for runs everyone else also rostered. The quieter runs are in Kansas City. The Royals sit at 5.7 against Kumar Rocker with a 10.5 game total, and because the Cubs suck up all the oxygen, you can get a full Royals stack at a fraction of the attention. That’s the leverage lane I keep coming back to tonight.