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Two hundred and fifty years of America today. That's a milestone worth pausing on for a second before we get to the slate. Freedom, family, faith, and a country where you can build something of your own from nothing. I don't take that for granted. Now let's honor the founders the right way: with a cold drink, a full grill, and a sim that's about to tell us exactly where the field is wrong tonight.
The Run Environment
The sim’s top two totals sit alone at the top: SF @ COL at 12.73 and STL @ CHC at 12.58. Coors is Coors, but the sim isn’t just rubber-stamping the park. It has SF putting up 6.89 runs against Tomoyuki Sugano and COL at 5.84. In Chicago, the Cubs are the story at 7.27 runs against Kyle Leahy, with St. Louis chipping in 5.32. After putting up 17 yesterday who knows what they do
The second tier is a cluster of double-digit games: MIA @ ATH (11.24), BAL @ CIN (10.54), SD @ LAD (10.28), and PHI @ KC (10.20). These are where the field spreads out.
The quiet spots are just as important. CWS @ CLE (7.24), NYM @ ATL (7.89), and TB @ HOU (8.12) are the pitcher-friendly games. That is not a coincidence, and it tells you exactly where to look for arms.