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The Run Environment
Be careful with your bankroll the last week and a half here. Guys are going to get short on pitching. They’re going to pull hitters early. I’m always really light, but at the same time, I think there are some cool leverage spots this time of year because, if you get playing time right, a lot of times we’re going to be ahead of the field.
The sim ranks it this way: BAL at NYM is the slate’s game at 12.65 total runs, and Baltimore’s 7.42 team total is the highest number on the board by more than half a run. Chicago is second at 6.89 (11.38 game total against ATL), Seattle third at 6.52 (10.49 total), and MIA at ARI is a split 11.27 with both sides around 5.6. Coors sits fifth: SD 5.01, COL 5.35, 10.36 total. The bottom is BOS at TEX (9.06) and Los Angeles’ 3.97 against Kirby.
Now the field. The four most-owned bats on the slate are all Padres (Tatis 21%, Merrill 19%, Harris 16%, Machado 15%), 71% combined, for the sixth-best team total. The Orioles’ top five (Alonso, Beavers, Mayo at 10%, Basallo 8%, Henderson 6%) are 44% combined for the best team total. Best probability at the lowest price is the play; that is Baltimore. Coors is usually a fade for me this time of year.
Weather
