Slate preview posts are for all paid subs, but access to the daily projections plus all of the DFS and betting tools is limited to PRO subscribers. Become an MLB DW Pro member today to get the full access to some of the best daily MLB tools on the market!
RUN PURE SPORTS PROMO
RPS is one of the premier sites on the Internet for MLB DFS. Projections, tons of tools, and an unmatched Discord community that is active for every slate. Sign up today at runpuresports.com to get an even sharper edge, and use code “PGH25” at checkout for 25% off your first payment.
Last write-up of the regular season. It has been a pleasure writing for you all this year. I hope you all enjoyed the season and got better at DFS. I actually really like the playoffs, so you’ll probably just see some content from me during it. I’m a big showdown fan. I’ve done really well at them over the years, binking multiple times, so I’ll talk about that, especially up front, as we have a couple of four-game slates. Thanks again, it has been a pleasure, and let’s go win some money on the last day of the regular season that is worth playing. Tomorrow will be weird.
The Run Environment
Houston at the A’s leads the sim at 10.77 runs, and the over 9.5 hits 58.2% of the time, best on the board. Next come Colorado at the White Sox (10.36), the Angels at Seattle (10.02), St. Louis at Milwaukee (9.82), Cleveland at KC (9.36), Arizona at San Diego (8.94) and Tampa at Philly (8.75). By team total, Seattle is way out front at 6.92, then Houston at 5.44, the White Sox and A’s at 5.33, and Cleveland at 5.07.
The field will pile into Seattle, and it’s right to. A 6.92 team total with an 80.8% win probability. The trap is paying up for name arms like Corbin Burnes and Michael Wacha on this slate.
Philly is 59 degrees with a 12 mph wind blowing in, and that helps explain the slate’s lowest total. Cleveland at KC has a 24% chance of rain, so keep an eye on it before lock.
Pitching
The Stud
Kade Anderson (SEA) $7,700 vs. LAA
The environment is as good as it gets. The Angels are simming for 3.10 runs, lowest on the slate, and Seattle wins 80.8% of the time. Anderson’s 22.73 sim DK is 6.5 points ahead of the next arm, with 7.2 strikeouts over 5.33 innings and a 28.69 ceiling.
He won’t be the most expensive arm, either. Four pitchers cost more and all four project worse. He’ll be the most popular pitcher on the slate, and the field is there for the right reason. We all know how much money we made betting against the Angels to strike out this year. Anderson’s really settled in as we go. He’s one of the best young arms in the game. Enjoy going there, especially when he’s only $7,700.
Verdict: Cash lock, chalk for the right reason, and eat it in GPPs too.
The Value
Jack Perkins (ATH) $5,200 vs. HOU
Perkins sims for 13.85 DK with a 21.97 ceiling. That’s the same projection as Dustin May ($6,700) and Davis Martin ($6,300) at a $1,100 to $1,500 discount. Paired with Anderson, he costs $12,900 for both arms, which leaves $37,100 for hitters, about $4,637 per bat.
The catch is where he’s pitching. He’s in the highest-total game, against a Houston lineup simming for 5.44, and the sim has him allowing 2.6 earned runs. Perkins was a dog last week for fantasy owners and season-long. I like both sides of this game, so you can play it either way, but at $5,200, he’s just too cheap to not throw.
Tournament Arms
Griffin Jax (TB) $8,600 vs. PHI
Jax is the second-best arm in the sim at 16.25 DK, with a 22.53 ceiling. Philly is simming for just 4.12 runs with the wind blowing in, and Tampa wins 53.8%. At $8,600 he lands in the same price range as Burnes and Wacha, and when prices are that close the field tends to pick the bigger name.
That’s the gap. He’s the second-best arm by 2.4 points, but I expect him to be owned like the fifth. If you fade the Burnes and Wacha crowd, you get the better pitcher for less money. They need to let Jax throw and get some pitches in as he heads into the playoffs here.
Davis Martin (CWS) $6,300 vs. COL
Martin sims for 13.3 DK with a 20.54 ceiling and a +1.46 Diff, and the White Sox win 54.4%. He’s within half a point of Perkins, but he won’t draw anything close to Perkins’ attention. He also pairs cleanly with a White Sox stack. You know it’s the last game of the season when I’m saying “pitch Davis Martin,” but it’s against the Rockies. That lineup is atrocious, and at his price point versus projection, he’s not going to have anybody on him. This is the kind of disgusting play that wins you a tournament.
Verdict: GPP leverage, the same projection as the chalk value arm with a small share of the ownership.
The Fade
Corbin Burnes (ARI) $9,200 vs. SD
The sim projects Burnes for 4.14 innings, the shortest outing of any starter. His 16.73 ceiling is the lowest on the slate and his 11.34 DK ranks tenth. People will play him because of the name. Wacha at $9,400 is the same story at 11.89. Remember, Burnes is just working his way back from that injury. He’s priced like he’s been top-tier. Burnes: hard pass.
Verdict: Fade, the field is there on name value and the sim doesn’t back it up.
Stacks
Seattle Mariners, 6.92 sim runs
This is the best offense on the slate by a run and a half, and Seattle’s hitters are cheap. The leverage ratio says eat it, but be picky about which bats. I expect ownership to pile onto Raleigh and Julio. Meanwhile Lazaro Montes bats eighth and sims for 10.42 with a 23.1 ceiling, which beats Julio’s 9.55. Cole Young (+1.90 Diff) and Josh Naylor at the bottom of the order get the same runs at a fraction of the ownership.
Cal Raleigh, C, LU4, $4,900, chalk
Randy Arozarena, OF, LU2, $5,500, popular
Julio Rodriguez, OF, LU5, $4,500, chalk
Dominic Canzone, OF, LU3, $4,100, moderate
J.P. Crawford, SS, LU1, $3,500, moderate
Lazaro Montes, OF, LU8, $3,600, low
Josh Naylor, 1B, LU6, $3,800, low
Cole Young, 2B, LU7, $3,300, low
Tag: Chalk worth eating, but build it from the bottom of the order. Skip the bring-back. The over 9.5 is a coin flip at 50.8%, and Seattle alone accounts for almost all of it.
Houston Astros, 5.44 sim runs
This game is the best over on the slate (58.2% over 9.5, 53.2% over 10). Every lineup that uses Perkins as its salary saver is betting against these bats. So if Perkins gets hit hard, you gain twice: your Astros score and the field’s cheap arm fails. Yordan will be popular, but the rest of this lineup should go overlooked. Remember, a lot of people are going to throw Perkins, so this is also valuable to be on the other side with the bats.
Yordan Alvarez, OF, LU2, $6,600, popular
Jeremy Pena, SS, LU1, $5,400, low
Isaac Paredes, 3B, LU3, $4,800, low
Jose Altuve, 2B, LU4, $4,600, low
Yainer Diaz, C, LU5, $4,300, low
Cam Smith, OF, LU8, $4,000, low
Tag: True leverage. The over percentage supports a bring-back, so add Lawrence Butler ($4,400, 9.31) or Carlos Cortes ($3,100, +1.22 Diff).
Chicago White Sox, 5.33 sim runs
Randal Grichuk has the biggest Diff on the slate (+3.29), and Tommy Pham (+1.92), Murakami (+1.22) and Brenton Doyle (+1.18) are all beating their projections against Jose Quintana. A six-man version costs about $24,600, and I expect low ownership across the board. The over 9.5 sits at 53.4%. We found the key to get Munetaka going. They just got to let him drink more. Comes back after getting hammered in one of the best clips of all time, screaming, “I am Japaneseeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,” and goes yard twice. Love to see it as they head into the playoffs.
Randal Grichuk, OF, LU3, $3,700, low
Munetaka Murakami, 1B, LU4, $5,200, moderate
Miguel Vargas, 3B, LU1, $5,700, low
Tommy Pham, OF, LU2, $2,700, low
Chase Meidroth, 2B, LU5, $4,300, low
Brenton Doyle, OF, LU6, $3,000, low
Tag: True leverage. For a bring-back, Jake McCarthy ($5,000, 9.21) or Cole Carrigg ($4,700, 9.15) works.
Bats by Position
Catcher
Raleigh’s 11.4 sim is the second-best bat on the slate, and he’s a lock for cash. In GPPs, Shea Langeliers sims for 9.57 in the best game, and I expect him to be owned at a fraction of Raleigh.
Cash: Cal Raleigh ($4,900)
GPP: Shea Langeliers ($5,500, low owned)
First Base
Naylor gives you 9.39 at $3,800 from the Seattle lineup, which is the best median per dollar at the position. Murakami is almost the same projection at 9.32. He’s more expensive, but he comes with a White Sox stack the field is ignoring.
Cash: Josh Naylor ($3,800)
GPP: Munetaka Murakami ($5,200, moderate)
Second Base
Ketel Marte’s 9.83 is the top median at second base. Cole Young sims for 9.13 at $3,300 with a +1.90 Diff. He’s the cheap way into the Seattle chalk, and the field’s attention will be on the bigger names at the top of that lineup.
Cash: Ketel Marte ($4,700)
GPP: Cole Young ($3,300, low owned)
Third Base
Jose Ramirez (9.71) edges Junior Caminero (9.62) and costs $1,000 less. Caminero is also hitting in a wind-in park. Miguel Vargas leads off in the White Sox stack at +0.94.
Cash: Jose Ramirez ($5,100)
GPP: Miguel Vargas ($5,700, low owned)
Shortstop
J.P. Crawford leads off for the best offense on the slate at $3,500 and sims for 9.70, which is the easy call. Bobby Witt Jr. at $6,400 has a -1.28 Diff, and his name will pull ownership his projection doesn’t deserve. Jeremy Pena leads off in the best game on the slate.
Cash: J.P. Crawford ($3,500)
GPP: Jeremy Pena ($5,400, low owned)
Outfield
Yordan’s 11.91 is the best median on the slate. Montes and Grichuk both clear 10.4 for under $3,700, so they’re strong in cash as well as GPPs. For GPP pivots, Canzone (10.03) is the Seattle bat the field forgets about, Cam Smith has a +1.12 Diff batting eighth, and Pham at $2,700 frees up salary.
Cash: Yordan Alvarez ($6,600), Lazaro Montes ($3,600), Randal Grichuk ($3,700)
GPP: Dominic Canzone ($4,100, moderate), Cam Smith ($4,000, low), Tommy Pham ($2,700, low)
The Leverage Board
Randal Grichuk, +3.29 Diff, 10.68 sim, low owned. That’s the biggest gap on the slate. People see a $3,700 veteran and keep scrolling, but the sim has him as the third-best bat.
Griffin Jax, 16.25 sim, low to moderate owned. He’s the second-best arm, and the field will give his price range to Burnes and Wacha on name .
Lazaro Montes, 10.42 sim, 23.1 ceiling, low owned. Batting eighth hides him. His ceiling beats every Seattle bat except Raleigh’s. If you read anything I wrote this year, you know I love Montes, this kid.
The Houston lineup, 5.44 runs, low owned outside Yordan. Nobody noticed that the chalk value arm is pitching in the slate’s best run environment.
Tommy Pham, +1.92 Diff at $2,700, low owned. He’s a min-price bat hitting second in a 5.33 lineup. This is my ode to Jon on my last write up of the season. How can I not say that Tommy Pham is not leverage?
Nathaniel Lowe, +1.76 Diff at $2,800, low owned. He bats sixth for Cleveland, so nobody’s looking.
The Builds
Cash Build
This build goes for the highest median and ignores ownership. Anderson plus Jax costs $16,300, which leaves $33,700 for hitters, or $4,212 per bat. That’s tighter than the Perkins build, but Jax’s extra 2.4 points are worth more than the $3,400 Perkins would save.
SP: Kade Anderson, SEA, $7,700 (7,700)
SP: Griffin Jax, TB, $8,600 (16,300)
C: Cal Raleigh, SEA, $4,900 (21,200)
1B: Nathaniel Lowe, CLE, $2,800 (24,000)
2B: Cole Young, SEA, $3,300 (27,300)
3B: Jose Ramirez, CLE, $5,100 (32,400)
SS: J.P. Crawford, SEA, $3,500 (35,900)
OF: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, $6,600 (42,500)
OF: Lazaro Montes, SEA, $3,600 (46,100)
OF: Randal Grichuk, CWS, $3,700 (49,800)
Total: $49,800 of $50,000
GPP Build
This lineup wins if Houston hits Perkins hard, the game clears 10 runs, and Anderson does what the sim expects. The deviation from the obvious build is skipping Perkins for Davis Martin and stacking against the field’s value arm. That way the build gains on every lineup that uses Perkins if he struggles.
Anderson plus Martin costs $14,000, which leaves $36,000 for hitters, or $4,500 per bat.
SP: Kade Anderson, SEA, $7,700 (7,700)
SP: Davis Martin, CWS, $6,300 (14,000)
C: Yainer Diaz, HOU, $4,300 (18,300)
1B: Josh Naylor, SEA, $3,800 (22,100)
2B: Jose Altuve, HOU, $4,600 (26,700)
3B: Isaac Paredes, HOU, $4,800 (31,500)
SS: J.P. Crawford, SEA, $3,500 (35,000)
OF: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, $6,600 (41,600)
OF: Cam Smith, HOU, $4,000 (45,600)
OF: Lawrence Butler, ATH, $4,400 (50,000)
Total: $50,000 of $50,000