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The Slate Take
This is a stack-or-die slate. The two highest implied team totals are the Reds at home in front of an 11 mph wind blowing straight out and the Diamondbacks in Milwaukee against a rookie. Everywhere else there’s either elite pitching (Skubal, Sanchez, Webb) or rain risk eating into the projection (Camden, PNC). Field is going to pile on Sanchez and Peterson at the chalk pitcher tier, pile on the obvious CIN stack, and miss the leverage on a $6,300 arm with the second-highest projection on the board. The edge tonight lives in the gap between the chalk arm everybody sees and the cheap arm with a real strikeout floor that gets ignored because his ERA tells a story his peripherals don’t.