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The Run Environment
Here are the top implied team totals from the games sheet:
Milwaukee, 6.8, opposing Jeffrey Springs
Seattle, 5.2, opposing Chris Bassitt
Houston, 5.1, opposing Grayson Rodriguez
San Francisco, 5.0, opposing Miles Mikolas
Philadelphia, 4.9, opposing Patrick Corbin
Athletics, 4.7, opposing Kyle Harrison
Milwaukee at 6.8 is the headline number and the trap. That total sits on top of the 11.0 over/under in the MIL at ATH game, and the whole slate is going to crowd onto the Brewers because 6.8 is the kind of number that screams at you. The problem is it locks last and you are paying up for the most obvious offense on the board. I would rather get the same correlation cheaper. The quieter runs are Seattle and Houston. Seattle at 5.2 against Chris Bassitt is a full lineup of contact bats in a real spot, and Houston at 5.1 against Grayson Rodriguez is the one where the matchups data is screaming the loudest, which I will get to. San Francisco at 5.0 with the wind howling out at Oracle is sneaky live too.


