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The Run Environment
Fourteen games and the sim builds the slate top down exactly where you’d guess. Coors leads with a WSH at COL total of 12.6, Washington’s road bats projecting 6.7 and Colorado 5.9. DET at CHC follows at 11.5 (5.6 and 5.9), then SF at KC at 11.0 with both teams above 5.3. After that it drops to the 9.0 tier: SD at ATL, MIA at HOU, ATH at ARI, STL at LAA. The middle of the board is a wall of 7.5 games.
Here’s the field read. Ownership is stacking the two chalk aces, Cease at 29% and Misiorowski at 28%, plus deGrom at 27%, and pouring OF money onto Coors. Curtis Mead sits at 14% and James Wood at 14%, both Coors autopilot. The field is right that Coors is the top total, but it’s wrong about how to get there, piling onto the same names everyone read on the same three tout sites this morning. The quiet spot is Kansas City: an 11.0 total, both team totals north of 5.3, and not a single bat above 6% owned. That gap is where the slate is won.
Weather
Pitching
