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We have four-day games, a four-game turbo slate, and then a seven-game night slate. I’m going to be breaking down the seven-game night slate today. No issues with any weather. If you’re going to play the Turbo Slade, everyone’s going to throw Detmers and Rodgers. The leverage is bringing Andrew Painter versus Washington. He’s only 6K, and he has a ton of upside as he works his way back. And the pitching is so ugly on the early slate. Besides Hunter Brown, I’m not touching that with a 100-foot pole. I’m staying off that slate. Disgusting.
The Run Environment
Seven games, and the sim spreads them wider than usual. STL at NYY leads at 10.28 total with a 69.8% chance of clearing 7.5 runs. MIA at ATL follows at 9.76, then SD at ARI at 9.42 and DET at SEA at 9.01. The bottom is PIT at MIL, a 6.27 total that clears 7.5 only 31.6% of the time. That is a 4-run spread between the best and worst game on a seven-game slate.
Team totals: San Diego 5.61, St. Louis 5.40, Seattle 5.32, Miami 5.02, New York 4.88, Atlanta 4.74. Milwaukee sits last at 3.05.
Here is the field read. Ownership is bunched around San Diego (Tatis 12%, Machado 11%, France 10%, Bogaerts 10%) and around Atlanta and New York name bats. St. Louis, which owns the second-highest team total in the highest-total game, is drawing 3% to 7% across the entire lineup. That is the quiet spot, and it is not close. The trap is paying up for Yankee bats at double the ownership of the Cardinals hitting against them.
Weather
