MLB Daily Notes - April 15
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
MATCHUPS CHEAT SHEET
Somewhat BIG announcement here. I’m opening up the MLB DW Daily Matchups Cheat Sheet to all paid subs. This thing has a ton of stuff in it, and I’m adding to it often.
→ Data on today’s probable pitchers
→ HR Cheat Sheet (compares projections with betting lines and adds in the matchups model data)
→ SB Cheat Sheet (compared projections with betting lines and adds in SB attempt rate and sprint speed data)
→ H+R+RBI Cheat Sheet (gives you my projected H+R+RBI total next to the betting lines)
→ Unavailable RPs (shows you which RPs are unlikely to pitch tonight due to recent workloads)
→ Lineups (gives you stats on today’s lineups so you can see how each pitcher’s matchup looks)
→ Hitter Data report (today’s projections, stats, and stats against the handedness of the pitcher they’re facing today)
→ MATCHUPS MODEL (this is the big one, you get access to the matchups model results where you can see how each hitter does against the movement profile of the pitches they’re going to see in today’s matchup). That tab is called Hitters vs. Similar
→ BOOM HITTERS (the best matchups from the matchups model for home run hitting)
Check out today’s here. That’s just a copy of the live one, so it won’t update at all from here on. But you can check out what’s in the sheet so you know if you’re considering signing up.
Pitching
Are strikeouts down? That was a question I had after seeing some of these strikeout totals from last night:
Cole Ragans: 1
Framber Valdez: 1
Bryan Woo: 3
Mitch Keller: 3
But we can check these things. Here’s the league stats by year table from the very useful MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard:
So NO! Strikeouts are still UP a half of a point from last year.
The league walk rate has exploded up to 9.9%. There’s something to it being early in the year that raises it up a bit. If we look at K% and BB% by month going back to 2021:
It’s always higher at the beginning of the year. We’re at 10% this April, though, which is well clear of what we’ve come to expect.
It’s possible it’s ABS related, although I doubt that since the calls seem to go both ways about 50% of the time.
Maybe it’s just league mindset related. In recent years, teams have shifted toward looking for extra base hits. They’ll take on more strikeouts if they can get more homers. That’s a trade that pays off.
So why wouldn’t it apply to pitchers as well? Maybe they just don’t mind the walk quite as much as they used to as long as the guy doesn’t give up the long ball.
Beats me, but man we’ve had a lot of 5+ walk starts already.
MacKenzie Gore got his name on that list last night with a brutal 5:6 K:BB against the Athletics. If you read the slate preview, you weren’t surprised. Those starts are always looming with the dude. I wouldn’t change anything about him, he’s an auto-start every time unless we see the wheels completely falling off again like they did last year. His sinker velo was up last night, so no worries there:
The pitcher of the day, though, was REID DETMERS → 7.0IP 4H 1ER 1R 9K 0BB
A 9:0 K:BB against the Yankees! He’s now up to a 27.7% K% and down to a 6.4% BB%. The 15.3% SwStr% and 33% BAll% are things we love to see. The one problem is a 38% GB%. That will probably get him in trouble with the long ball. He’s given up just one so far, and it’s a 0% HR/FB (I guess the home run he did give up was a line drive).
Here’s the full list of pitchers with
→ 3+ GS
→ 14%+ SwStr%
→ Sub 34% Ball%
Detmers has the most innings of all of them! So we’re starting to believe.
We also see Mick Abel here. He had his second straight fantastic outing:
→ 7.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 10K 0BB
One-upped Detmers there with a 10:0 K:BB. That was the
I watched Pitcherlist video on him fastball yesterday. It was really good.
That fastball’s results now:
→ 153 pitches
→ 17.6% SwStr%
→ 62% Strike%
→ 27% Ball%
However…
→ .478 xwOBA
→ .522 SLG
I would much rather have elite strikes and hard contact rather than the other way around. I do believe that he’ll give up some home runs. But if he’s going to mess around with a 60% Strike% on the pitch, the home runs won’t be a big issue.
The changeup has been really good so far as well. The slider and curveball, not so much. But having an elite four-seamer with a good changeup and then just some other stuff to mix it up with… I think that’s a winning formula.
Beware the homers, bros! He’ll have some starts where he gives up a couple of dingers and it goes south. But if the K% and BB% are holding steady, you just power through. You can’t be a bad fantasy baseball pitcher with a 20% K-BB%, and he’s at 26% in these last two starts since getting right.
PAYWALL
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