MLB Daily Notes - April 17
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
MLB DW PRO SUPER DISCOUNT:
Upgrade to MLB DW Pro get the daily projections and all of the tools that go with it for just $125. That’s a $100 discount on the original price. Upgrading will pro-rate so you’re not double-paying. Reach out to me with any questions or issues. Upgrade Here!
We had this tornado watch thing at 1 AM last night, so my wife and I got a national emergency service alert or whatever it’s called. It’s so absurdly loud. And I was so, so asleep when it went off. She asked me if we should do what the thing said and take the kids to the basement. So I’m lying there 10% awake doing the math.
It’s a conditional probability equation, really. For us to get jacked up by the tornado, a lot of legs of that parlay would have to hit.
The tornado would have to actually form (<50%)
It would have to form in my neighborhood (<5%)
It would have to launch some object perfectly through one of the two windows my kids were sleeping by (<10%)
And I think those estimates are pretty gracious; they’re probably a lot lower than that. The potential cost, an injury to one of my kids, is pretty great. But by the time I had really reasoned it all out, I was asleep again, and I guess so was my wife. So I woke up at 7am, and everything is fine. I went outside, and the garbage bin wasn’t even knocked over. Some tornado!
Pitchers
Peter Lambert (5.0IP 7H 4ER 4R 8K 1BB)
This was really something. An 8:1 K:BB with 23 whiffs, a 25.6% SwStr%, a 54.4% Strike%, and a 31.1% Ball% against the Cardinals. I don’t think it’s anything to react to. He was cut by the Rockies in 2024 and went to Japan in 2025. Weird stuff can happen in one start, but this was certaintly weird:
That’s a ton of whiffs on his top three pitches.
Tanner Bibee (6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 5K 3BB)
A very nice count of 18 whiffs for the Buy-BEE. But still a little wild with a 37.5% Ball% and a 5:3 K:BB.
He’s trying to get away from the four-seamer however possible, and the solution for that has been to throw the cutter. That’s worked for whiffs sometimes, but both pitches have been murked so far (.442 xwOBA on the cutter, .430 on the four seamer, .704 SLG on the cutter, .577 on the four seamer). The changeup is good, but the fastball makes him very unreliable.
He’s droppable in ten-team leagues and pretty fringey in 12-teamers. We’re talking about a dude with a 4.14 SIERA last year, and it sits at 3.98 this year.
Cam Schlittler (6.0IP 3H 0ER 1R 6K 2BB)
Some are saying that Schlittler is the best pitcher in the game. It’s a small sample case to be made, but there is a case to be made.
We like looking at Strike Rate in short samples. And he’s clearing everybody in that stat.
Schlittler 54.5%
Imanaga 54.2%
Gausman 53.8%
deGrom 52.5%
Pivetta 52.3%
Hancock 51.8%
Harrison 51.7%
Detmers 51.5%
Soroka 51.4%
Misiorowski 51.4%
He has a 34% K%, a 3% BB%, a 31% K-BB%, no homers allowed, a 1.63 JA SIERA. He’s definitely been the most impressive starter in the league so far. You should sell high… to me, if you’re in a league with me.
Casey Mize (6.67IP 3H 0ER 0R 7K 1BB)
14 whiffs, 6.2 strong innings for Mize. A 7:1 K:BB. Doing good things. He’s started years well before, and it never lasts. But the 19% K-BB%, 13.1% SStr%, 36% Ball%, .303 xwOBA back up the good performances so far.
But his fastball still stinks. He’s gotten some whiffs on it so far, but the 44% Strike% is very bad and it’s been hit in the air a ton. Lucky to have only given up one homer on it.
The splitter has saved him so far, but we know the splitter can’t be trusted for the long haul if you don’t have a good fastball weapon ahead of it.
Don’t believe your lying Mize!
Kodai Senga (3.33IP 6H 6ER 7R 3K 3BB)
Dude is busted. It was a tough pitching environment with the wind, but I’m not sure he can really blame the wind for a three walks and a 42.4% Ball%.
The silver lining was, I guess, that his velo ticked back up a bit. He looked really good to start the year, but now he’s had two straight disasters with 13 ER in less than six innings.
I’m not sure what you do if you have him in fantasy. He feels like a dude who could snap back and have some very good weeks and months in the future, but if I had to put money on it, I’d be firmly against Senga. Something doesn’t seem right, and we’ve really never seen the guy put together several actually good outings in a row.
It turns out, I guess, that it’s pretty tough to go from Japan to the MLB. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is really the only pitcher we’ve seen transition smoothly, at least in recent years. It hasn’t gone well for Senga, the Imai thing is off to about as bad of a start as it could be, and Sasaki is absolutely terrible.
Michael Wacha (6.0IP 3H 2ER 2R 6K 3BB)
Feels like he was very lucky to have the good start he did. A 41.2% Ball% and three walks. But the changeup bails him out of tough spots, although he did give up a homer on it yesterday.
I think you can use Wacha for awhile if you’re really in need of a stater. He’s been better than league average in everything thus far.
Jose Soriano (5.67IP 2H 0ER 0R 8K 4BB)
He threw a 47.5% Ball% last night. That was an explosion upward. He has been at 37%, 38%, 29%, and 35% in his first round starts. So he’s really, really lucky this wasn’t his first bad start.
He even gave up a couple of barrels in this one. A 45% GB% and a 9.1% Brl%, but no homers surrendered. A 182 BABIP last night bring shis season BABIP to .149. Just a 10% HR/FB, he hasn’t allowed a single hit with runners in scoring position yet.
It can’t continue like this, but that’s obvious, he has a 0.28 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. The 32.5% K% cures a lot of wounds, but the walk rate is now up to 10.8% after four yesterday.
If the strikeouts continue (7, 4, 10, 10, and 8 in his five starts), then yeah, he’ll be a lot better than last year. But it’s not impossible that he regresses back toward the 21-23% K% he’s put the last two years.
If there’s even a 20% chance of that happening, I think you have to try to trade the guy, especially after seeing the command go away last night.
Tyler Glasnow (7.0IP 2H 1ER 1R 7K 2BB)
No trouble in Coors for Glasnow. He put the breaking balls in his back pocket and threw 60% fastballs.
And that’s a pretty sharp idea in Coors, provided you have a sick fastball. The spin rate pitches are the most affected by Coors, if I’m not mistaken, and the Rockies aren’t a lineup of All Stars. So Glasnow just challenged them with the heater and it worked marvelously.
Logan Gilbert (5.33IP 7H 2ER 2R 7K 1BB)
His ERA is up to 4.04 now with a 1.17 WHIP. Not exactly studly numbers. But his 23.5% K-BB% is very nice, and his HR/9 is down to 0.93 after a mark of 1.4 last year.
Seven hits allowed last night and one homer. He’s been punished by a .351 BABIP this year. I think there are better, more truly dominant outings, ahead for Gilbert.
Joe Ryan (6.0IP 3H 1ER 2R 6K 0BB)
Joe Ryan is the king of the 6:0 K:BB. His ball rate is up a bit this year to 35.3%, but it hasn’t hurt him. He has thrown strikes when needed and has another walk rate below 6%.
The fastball velo is down 1.1mph from last year, and it’s been a little worse for it. Just a 13% SwStr% on the fastball, which is elite, but we’ve seen better from him. Look at the 0.0% HR/FB there. That won’t stick around for much longer. I think it’s reasonable to sell high on Ryan right now. I’m not sure if he can do much better than he’s done so far, and I know for sure he can (and will) do worse.
Jacob deGrom (4.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 3K 2BB)
Just super inefficient. It took him 88 pitches to clear four innings, and that was it. It was a bad whiff game (10.2% SwStr%). The velo was down 0.5mph from his last starts and -1 from last year. I don’t think there’s any cause for concern. But he kinda killed my DFS night after I put the lock button on him - so that wasn’t cool.