MLB Daily Notes - April 17th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I did some work for my real job FIRST today, which is a really responsible move on my part. That job is still much more important than this one, as it pays me 2x more (although the gap is narrowing…) and it gives me all of the benefits that are so important to have when you have kids. It is kind of a bummer that your health insurance is provided by your employer. I mean that’s really nice in some ways, but a bit unfortunate in my situation. It raises the amount of money I need to generate on this Substack to go full-time here substantially, since if I quit that other job I’d have to then buy health insurance directly and that would be crazy expensive. And I’d also lose the 401K match, which is significant. So we’re a long ways off still. But I’m not complaining, I love everything about life.
I don’t want to go Jared Jones crazy on this Substack, but you’ll understand where I’m coming from. He has easily been the most impressive starting pitcher on a per-inning basis this season, and he’s on the Pirates, which seems almost too good to be true. I didn’t know the Pirates were legally allowed to have ace pitchers.
I love a good plot-stretcher, and Jones has replaced Strider in that role:
But the story today is that the Pirates pulled him after five innings with just 59 pitches thrown in a 1-0 game. The bullpen then gave up three runs in the 7th inning and the Pirates lost the game 3-1.
It’s no surprise that a team would be extremely careful with a 22-year-old SP, but to me that’s going a bit too far with it. Why do you employ pitchers? To win Major League games with. And after that fifth inning, you have a guy still 20 pitches shy of his average season pitch count with a 1-0 lead, he’s completely dominating, and you take him out to leave your pretty mediocre bullpen four innings to cover with a razor thin margin?
It was a pre-determined five inning limit for him. Again, weird because he pitched into the sixth in all three prior starts, but okay.
It’s not useful to just sit here and complain about it, but it did raise a question in my head. What is more important in injury-prevention? Is it PITCH COUNTS or is it INNINGS COUNTS? Is it about how many times your arm throws the ball, or is it more about the up-and-down nature of a game. Are you more at risk of injury after you’ve had to cool down and ramp up 5 times? I would assume that’s what the Pirates #analyticbros are saying, so I guess we have our answer there.
We’re in area of the unknown here. I thought Travis Sawchick framed it brilliantly:
It’s kind of like the COVID vaccine thing (watch out here we go) where the people that got the vaccine still got sick and they were like what the hell but then the pro-vaccine people say “yeah but it would’ve been worse”. It’s unfalsifiable, no way to really know. And that’s the case here as well. Would that 37% be way higher if MLB teams weren’t being way more careful in the last 5-10 years? Who knows!
My hunch is that team’s are being way too careful. It’s like when the star player on a basketball team gets two fouls early in the game and the coach benches him for 10 minutes. Taking your best player off the floor NOW so you MIGHT NOT have to do it later… seems not smart to me. A win in April is just as good as a win in September… if you have a guy winning you the game, let him win you the game.
Speaking of WIN, Keaton Winn pitches today and I’m excited.
That’s all I have to say about it, just wanted to hit that sick transition.
Ryan Weathers has been sneaky good this year, and he was great last night:
6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 1 BB, 21.2% SwStr%, 54.4% Strike%
He took down the whiff crown with 19. He has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP so far on a 14.6% K-BB%. So that’s not a very K-BB%, and his SIERA sits at 3.99.
Decent/good fastball and great changeup, but he’s been pretty wild with the sweeper. I don’t think you’re going to get great stuff out of him every time out, but he seems worthy of being a top 60 SP or so. Not sure what other people think of him, I used to look at Nick Pollack’s top 100 a lot, but I don’t really do that anymore. Too much pride in my heart and too many ads on the page.
But I checked it now and he has Weathers at #87. He’s #53 on my automated ranks. My automated ranks are much dumber than a real person that knows what they are talking about doing ranks, but guess what bro - all I have to do is push one button and I get a 152 pitchers ranked!
Top 10 automated SP ranks (using 2024 data only, so this can change significantly day-to-day):
Seeing Luis Gil there makes me think I really need to punish dudes more for wild ball rates, and I’m probably giving out too much credit for xwOBACON as well. It’s not a perfect system, but it’s freaking fun, ok?
Did you know that if you put your cursor over a Google Chrome tab and press down on your mouse’s scroll wheel, it closes the tab? Something about doing that has always tickled me. Although that’s irrelevant to 90% of you because nobody uses actual mice anymore. Sad.
Jon Gray had a good start, so the bumpy ride continues.
The algo isn’t a big fan of his with his 39% Ball% and 15% Brl% allowed.
But he is above the level of a “gas can”, as some people call it. But nobody wants to hear about Jon Gray!
How about Reynaldo Lopez. Who would’ve thought he’d come out of the gate with three straight qualbangers and a strong 17.6% K-BB%. Not me!
He has managed the walks, which is what I thought he wouldn’t be able to do.
The 12.2% SwStr% and 47% Strike% would imply a 23% K%, so he’s over-performed there [probably], and he’s also not given up a home run yet despite a ridiculous, ridiculous 41% FB%.
Only five pitchers have given up 14 or more fly balls without allowing a homer yet, and Lopez is #3 on that list with 18.
So the conclusion here is that Reynaldo Lopez is cruisin’ for a bruisin’, and you should sell high.
As if the Orioles needed more help, they are watching Ryan O’Hearn off to a blazing start. Four dingers, a 17.5% Brl%, and just a 10% K%. It’s an 80% Contact%.
We saw him be a pretty good hitter last year as well at the age of 29 after joining a new team. Nobody really bought into that, but he’s still doing it and this is a really, really impressive start.
He is in a platoon, no doubt about it. All of his starts have been against right-handed pitching, but that’s the “strong side” platoon as they say, and he’s hitting 4th or 5th every time. He’s a bit tough to play in weekly lock leagues, but if you can bench him against lefties, he’s probably a must-own dude at this point.
By the way, Jackson Holliday has a 52% K% and a 55% Contact%. Hitting in the Majors is hard.
I have a lot of actual work to do now… damnit. I will talk to you all later. Check out the podcast if you haven’t yet!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jared Jones
2. Ryan Weathers
3. Ranger Suarez
4. Reynaldo Lopez
5. Jon Gray
6. Aaron Civale
7. Yusei Kikuchi
8. Hunter Greene
9. Grayson Rodriguez
10. Austin Gomber
11. Dylan Cease
12. Tanner Bibee
13. Carlos Rodon
14. Kyle Hendricks
15. Hunter Brown
16. Logan Gilbert
17. Jose Soriano
18. JP Sears
19. Tommy Henry
20. Patrick Corbin
21. Casey Mize
22. Lance Lynn
23. Jose Quintana
24. Garrett Whitlock
25. Jordan Hicks
26. Kyle Hurt
27. Chris Paddack
28. Wade Miley
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ranger Suarez (vs. COL): 35.45 Points
2. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. NYY): 30.5 Points
3. Ryan Weathers (vs. SF): 29.9 Points
4. Reynaldo Lopez (vs. HOU): 28.5 Points
5. Logan Gilbert (vs. CIN): 26.61 Points
6. Dylan Cease (vs. MIL): 25.3 Points
7. Jared Jones (vs. NYM): 24.65 Points
8. Jon Gray (vs. DET): 21.9 Points
9. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. MIN): 21.3 Points
10. Aaron Civale (vs. LAA): 20.5 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ryan Weathers (MIA): 19 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
2. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 18 Whiffs (112 Pitches)
3. Aaron Civale (TB): 16 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
4. Jon Gray (TEX): 16 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
5. Jared Jones (PIT): 15 Whiffs (59 Pitches)
6. Dylan Cease (SD): 14 Whiffs (110 Pitches)
7. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
8. Hunter Greene (CIN): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
9. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
10. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 12 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jared Jones (PIT): 69.5 Strike%, 15.3 Ball%
2. Ryan Weathers (MIA): 54.4 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
3. Hunter Greene (CIN): 54.1 Strike%, 38.8 Ball%
4. Yusei Kikuchi (TOR): 52.1 Strike%, 34.0 Ball%
5. Ranger Suarez (PHI): 50.0 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
6. Jon Gray (TEX): 49.5 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
7. Aaron Civale (TB): 49.5 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
8. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 49.5 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
9. Austin Gomber (COL): 49.4 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
10. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 48.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
11. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 48.9 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
12. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 48.3 Strike%, 35.6 Ball%
13. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 47.8 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
14. Dylan Cease (SD): 47.3 Strike%, 41.8 Ball%
15. Wade Miley (MIL): 45.5 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ryan Yarbrough: 58 Pitches, 15 Outs, 3.87 POUT
2. Jared Jones: 59 Pitches, 15 Outs, 3.93 POUT
3. Ranger Suarez: 112 Pitches, 25 Outs, 4.48 POUT
4. Logan Gilbert: 90 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.5 POUT
5. Lance Lynn: 101 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.81 POUT
6. Grayson Rodriguez: 87 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.83 POUT
7. Ryan Weathers: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
8. Hunter Brown: 88 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.18 POUT
9. Reynaldo Lopez: 94 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.22 POUT
10. Yusei Kikuchi: 94 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.22 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Dylan Cease's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.9mph to 83.3
Tanner Bibee's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 80.9
Jared Jones's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 90.1
Dylan Cease's FF velo (47 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.3
Dylan Cease's SL velo (46 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.0
Carlos Rodon's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.3
Yusei Kikuchi's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 90.3
Tanner Bibee's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.3
Jordan Hicks's FS velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.8
Logan Gilbert's FS velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.9
Tommy Henry's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 77.0
Jon Gray's FF velo (36 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 93.6
Lance Lynn's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 80.6
Austin Gomber's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 82.5
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (30 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 83.4
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (48 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 95.5
Hunter Greene's SL velo (36 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 84.7
Grayson Rodriguez's FC velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 86.4
JP Sears's ST velo (28 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 78.1
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (36 pitches) DOWN -2.6mph to 96.6
Reynaldo Lopez's SL velo (36 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 84.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's ST usage (18.8%) up 16.4 points
Carlos Rodon's FC usage (13.9%) up 10.2 points
Garrett Whitlock's FC usage (24.1%) up 19.7 points
Garrett Whitlock's SL usage (22.2%) up 19.3 points
Grayson Rodriguez's FC usage (21.8%) up 13.9 points
Hunter Brown's FC usage (18.2%) up 16.4 points
JP Sears's SI usage (14.6%) up 13.5 points
Jordan Hicks's ST usage (34.9%) up 13.0 points
Jordan Hicks's FS usage (14.0%) up 10.5 points
Lance Lynn's SI usage (36.6%) up 21.8 points
Logan Gilbert's FC usage (13.3%) up 11.6 points
Patrick Corbin's FC usage (14.6%) up 12.4 points
Ryan Weathers's ST usage (34.4%) up 13.0 points
Wade Miley's SI usage (25.8%) up 20.6 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jared Jones - 88 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Jack Flaherty - 79 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Max Meyer - 65 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Brady Singer - 69 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
MacKenzie Gore - 65 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 40.6% K%
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 39.4% K%
Jared Jones - 88 TBF, 36.4% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 65 TBF, 35.4% K%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 35.2% K%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
Hunter Greene - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 30.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Freddy Peralta - 66 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Jared Jones - 88 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 70 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Reid Detmers - 64 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
MacKenzie Gore - 65 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 95 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Aaron Civale - 89 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brady Singer - 69 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 95 TBF, 63.5% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 68 TBF, 60.9% GB%
Keaton Winn - 66 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Jordan Hicks - 86 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Adrian Houser - 68 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 69 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Michael Soroka - 89 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Ryan Feltner - 68 TBF, 53.5% GB%
Casey Mize - 65 TBF, 53.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 71 TBF, 28.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Cole Ragans - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 6.2 BB%, 44.3% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 27.2 K%, 4.3 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 88 TBF, 35.2 K%, 4.5 BB%, 44.2% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 63.5% GB%
Shane Bieber - 45 TBF, 44.4 K%, 2.2 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 65 TBF, 30.8 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 57 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.3 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Zac Gallen - 89 TBF, 29.2 K%, 7.9 BB%, 47.3% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 100 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 48.4% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Cole Ragans - +3.7% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Logan Allen - +3.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +7.5% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Tanner Houck - +2.6% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Graham Ashcraft - +5.9% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Dakota Hudson - +2.3% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.7% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Joe Ryan - +4.7% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
MacKenzie Gore - +4.7% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Jose Urena - +5.1% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Kyle Muller - +5.9% CSW%, -7.8 BB%
Shane Bieber - +4.4% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Corey Seager (TEX) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kerry Carpenter (DET) 3 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Enmanuel Valdez, Yesterday: 108.6 Previous High: 108.4
Ian Happ, Yesterday: 114.0 Previous High: 113.9
Hardest Hit Balls
Ian Happ (CHC) - 114.2mph - nan
Ian Happ (CHC) - 114.0mph - double
Jo Adell (LAA) - 112.3mph - single
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 111.0mph - field_out
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 110.9mph - home_run
Ian Happ (CHC) - 110.2mph - single
Jake Bauers (MIL) - 110.1mph - field_out
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 109.9mph - single
Edward Olivares (PIT) - 109.9mph - field_out
Josh Bell (MIA) - 109.9mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Lawrence Butler - 60 PA, 0.279 wOBA, 0.412 xwOBA, 0.133 Diff
Yordan Alvarez - 82 PA, 0.382 wOBA, 0.482 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Colt Keith - 61 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Christian Encarnacion-Strand - 76 PA, 0.23 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, 0.092 Diff
Francisco Lindor - 81 PA, 0.231 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.092 Diff
Ty France - 57 PA, 0.295 wOBA, 0.384 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Andrew Benintendi - 63 PA, 0.191 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, 0.089 Diff
Brandon Nimmo - 76 PA, 0.326 wOBA, 0.414 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Jonathan India - 75 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 71 PA, 0.235 wOBA, 0.317 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Bottom 10
Orlando Arcia - 63 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.131 Diff
Jose Altuve - 86 PA, 0.484 wOBA, 0.384 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 72 PA, 0.378 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
Brenton Doyle - 69 PA, 0.363 wOBA, 0.27 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Oswaldo Cabrera - 56 PA, 0.377 wOBA, 0.289 xwOBA, -0.088 Diff
Masyn Winn - 55 PA, 0.393 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 78 PA, 0.387 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
William Contreras - 76 PA, 0.469 wOBA, 0.387 xwOBA, -0.082 Diff
Elias Diaz - 58 PA, 0.341 wOBA, 0.261 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Ezequiel Tovar - 75 PA, 0.362 wOBA, 0.282 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
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