I can usually just show you the full SP data report from Thursdays,cause they are usually shorter slates. So here you go:
The takeaways from yesterday
Cristopher Sanchez is as-advertised. He’s now at a 31% K% with a 6% BB%. That’s the 10th-best K-BB% in the league early on, and he has the 52% GB%. He is in Logan Gilbert territory in the magic formula arena. We love high strikeout rates, low walks rates, and high ground ball rates. And it seems like Sanchez is going to be that kind of guy this year.
Will Warren is done for. He struggled early on and was removed after 1.2 innings, and Ryan Yarbrough followed him. I wouldn’t be shocked if that piggyback situation continues. Warren’s command has been bad (13.4% BB%) and he’s not getting whiffs (10.8% SwStr%).
That was quite a line from Eduardo Rodriguez. 5.1 innings, ten hits, and yet just one earned run allowed on a 9:0 K:BB. You won’t find too many starts out there with a 10:9:0 H:K:BB ratio. For the season, Rodriguez is at a 30% K% with a 6% B%. That’s an elite K-BB%. The SwStr% is at 12.1%, which is much, much lower than the 30% K% would suggest, and his ball rate isn’t anything special at 35.8%, either. He’s given up a .224 xBA, so that’s good. I have trouble believing that E-Rod can be a useful fantasy starter, but there are some good data points here.
Kumar Rocker had a great start. And this comes one start after I put him in the coffin for the year. That’s embarassing. He posted a 19.2% SwStr% with a 25.6% Ball%. That’s the guy we saw in the minor leagues. He struck out eight in seven innnings, but did give up three earned runs on five hits (no walks). He is now at a 17% K%, which is bad, but the 4.9% BB% is nice.
Let’s take a look at the updated pitch mix for Rocker.
The difference yesterday was the slider usage.
The slider is clearly his best pitch, so it makes sense to feature it. But as we always say, it’s pretty rare to see a guy have success as a starter while throwing primarily breaking balls. It also can’t be super great for your arm, right? He threw it 58% of the time yesterday. He scrapped the curveball and lowered the changeup usage while evening out the sinker + four-seamer mix.
If nothing else, it’s very interesting to see a change in approach, and this was clearly intention.
Some of these other names that have high K% but low SwStr%, which would make it likely that their K% comes down in a hurry:
Clay Holmes (31.5% K%, 10.8% SwStr%)
Tyler Glasnow (30.4% K%, 9.7% SwStr%)
Eduardo Rodriguez (30.2% K%, 12.1% SwStr%)
Carlos Rodon (30.1% K%, 12.4% SwStr%)
Jack Flaherty (28.7% K%, 12.8% SwStr%)
Logan Webb (28.0% K%, 11.6% SwStr%)
Drew Rasmussen (27.8% K%, 10.5% SwStr%)
Joe Ryan (27.4% K%, 12.3% SwStr%)
Martin Perez (26.9% K%, 10.9% SwStr%)
Max Fried (26.7% K%, 12.3% SwStr%)
We have some new stuff showing up the hitter section of the notes, so let’s look at some of those names. These are your “Last 30 Days Improvers”. What this does is compare the last 30 days for each hitter with what they had done in the given category over the last two years.
We’re 30 days into the season now, so violla! The highlights:
Tyler Soderstrom
You can have a lucky three weeks, even in the underlying metrics. You should never buy fully into one month of hitter data, but Soderstrom is doing just about everything possible to make us believe. The K% is down to 18.5%, the Cont% is up to 74%, the Brl% is super-elite at 21%, athe GB% is low at 41%, the EV90 is at a 109.1. He’s had just 14 PAs against lefties, but he’s hit .357 with a .643 SLG and a 21% K% in that short sample.
Tyler Soderstrom Stacast Page
Pete Crow-Armstrong
The questions we had about PCA were about the strikeout rate and the exit velocities. He’s shown us a much higher contact rate early on (77.5% Contact%). He’s swinging a ton (60%), and that keeps the OBP low, but it also might take a few strikeouts away since he’s giving himself more chances to get balls in play. The EV90 is still low, but it’s up to 103, which isn’t awful. The Brl% is at 6.6% early on with a 34% GB%. So he’s getting a ton of balls in the air, and that will turn into some home runs along the way. He has three so far on a .259/.303/.469 slash line. And that isn’t even to mention his stolen base upside, which is the main reason people drafted him. It’s looking good.
Lawrence Butler
The power numbers weren’t popping early on, but he hit a home run yesterday and the SLG is up to .451 on a .356 xwOBA. So the numbers look really good. Add to that a much-improved K% of 13% and you have a guy you should be feeling very good about. You might even be able to buy a littel bit low on him since he has just the two homers and four steals.
Geraldo Perdomo
He got the big contact extension and has rewarded the D’Backs for it already. He’s hitting .317/.417/.492 with three homers on an elite 7% K% with a .277 xBA and a .386 xwOBA. We have always known he was a good contact hitter, but that’s to another level early on at a 91% Contact%. The power isn’t for real, I would’nt count on continued homers (101.7 EV90, 4.8% Brl%), but anytime you’re getting that many balls in play and in the air (33% GB%), you’ll hit some homers. He’s also a nice source of steals, and his playing time is not in question. Jordan Lawlar seemed like a threat in the offseason, but the contract extension kind of put that to rest. Lawlar is hitting .300/.395/.557 with four homers in AAA, but he’s still struggling a bit with contact at a 28% K%. I think the SS job is Perdomo’s.
Corbin Carroll
Before yesterday, Carroll had just one stolen base, but six homers. It was a full-out power surge (.699 SLG). I don’t think any Carroll owners were upset with that, but there was like this “where are the steals???” feeling. He swiped three bags yesterday and now he has six homers and four steals on a .321/.398/.667 slash line. Total stud.
So that will be in the daily notes every day for the rest of the season, and I guess I said these notes will be free for all from now on. I’m not sure if I even agree with my decision on that, but what’s done is done. Enjoy the notes, and enjoy this Easter weekend of baseball.
Can you possibly add bat speed in these daily notes? Something like last 7 days vs previous 7 days. I think this might be very beneficial to have