One of my better resources is back. The 2025 MiLB Statcast dashboard link has been added to the Resource Glossary. If you’re a paid subscriber, you should have that page bookmarked. That’s where all the links to premium stuff live.
I’m offering the daily notes completely for free this year, so the links won’t be in this post. It was kind of annoying to have to paste the links in at the bottom every day last year, so I’m just trusting that you all can find what you need on that static page.
That dashboard is a lot like the Main MLB one, but for the minor leagues. You can find pitch mix data, SwStr%, exit velocity, launch angle, and a bunch more stuff for the minor leagues. Here are a few screenshots:
You can also find minor league data on the MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard, dating back to 2021!
Last fall I added the “Hitter Profile” and “Pitcher Profile” tabs, which I used a ton all offseason. They are really nice.
If you’re a paid sub, take advantage! Go check those out.
The SP of the day yesterday was clearly Nathan Eovaldi. He eclipsed the rare complete game shutout. He’s now thrown 15 innings with 17 strikeouts and zero walks. He’s given up two runs on seven hits for a 0.47 WHIP.
And everything under the hood looks great as well:
An 18.8% SwStr% and 30% Ball%, even over a two-start sample, is extremely elite.
This can serve as another lesson for us. This is potential sell-high opportunity. Eovaldi is good, no doubt, but do we really think he’s going to rip off a career year at age 35?
It’s possible he can beat the 2023-2024 production if he’s fully healthy and on the mound consistently. But it’s pretty foolish to think he’s going to add 5+ points to his K%. I think you’ll see him back around a 24%-25% K% before long.
You’re probably not going to find somebody to give you a big return for Eovaldi after just two starts. But I don’t know, don’t give your league mates too much credit. Maybe somebody is ready to give you Rafael Devers for him, or something like that. It’s worth some consideration.
Dustin May had himself a great 2025 debut.
5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 6 SO, 3 BB
He threw 81 pitches, that’s about what we expected. The ball rate was high at 43%, so he didn’t quite have that pinpoint command.
We can forgive that in his first start in almost two years. Nobody even put a four-seamer of his into play, and there were only a few balls hit off the ground.
The SwStr% of 13.6% isn’t through the roof, but that’s a good number. Back in 2023, he really was not getting whiffs. It will be interesting to see where that settles in. The sweeper and sinker aren’t pitches you’d expect to get a ton of whiffs. He makes his living off of getting hitters to mishit the ball. Anyways, he’s a must-own player in anything other than a shallow 10-teamer.
Great result, great SwStr%, but not good Strike% or Ball% whatsoever.
The fastball was elite. And he got by well with the slider and splitter, but two ball rates above 50% is not a good sign.
Facing the Mariners in Seattle is one of the easiest matchups in the sport, so I wouldn’t really be upgrading Mize for this one. But at least he didn’t blow it! You always like a good result over a bad. His next start will be at home against the Yankees, so that will be the true test. If you used him last night, I’d say you’re fine to drop him if there’s somebody else there you really like.
Upcoming Pitching Projections - Detroit Tigers
Two different guys named Shane had nice outings. First, let’s look at White Sox pitcher Shane Smith.
5.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 SO, 4 BB, 0 HR
This was his Major League debut. Here’s the pitch mix:
That’s a nice SwStr%. But he struggled to earn strikes (41% Strike%, 38% Ball%). Here’s his career summary:
Those are really strong marks in the minors last year, so we might have something here. I wouldn’t be adding him anywhere yet, but he at least meets the “pitcher to watch” threshold.
Shane Baz took full advantage of the soft matchup with the Pirates.
6 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 10 SO, 0 BB
He came out with heavy curveball usage, and hitters couldn’t do anything with it. That’s a super-elite 62% Strike% on a curveball. I’m not going to check, but I bet it’s insanely rare to see that kind of strike rate on a curve.
The fastball averaged 97. That’s nice to see. It didn’t go super well for him (6.5% SwStr%, .553 xwOBA), so there’s reason for some hesitation here. You need to get a 50%+ Strike% on your fastball to have reliable success, so we’ll be watching that. His next matchup is likely against the Angels at home, so that’s probably a situation where you’d want to start him again.
Thomas Harrington was awful, so you can forget about him for the time being.
That’s not his usual self. He’s a strike-thrower, so maybe some nerves or rust here. But I imagine his next start is in AAA.
There’s a bunch of early games today, so I’ve gotta turn the page and get moving on today’s stuff. But I don’t want to disrespect some of the aces!
Logan Gilbert: 5 IP, 10:1 K:BB, 23.9% SwStr%
Kodai Senga: 5 IP, 8:1 K:BB, 20.8% SwStr%
Michael King: 5 IP, 11:1 K:BB, 20.5 SwStr%
Corbin Burnes: 4.2 IP, 8:3 K:BB, 16.3% SwStr%
Chris Sale: 5 IP, 5:0 K:BB, 16.1% SwStr%
I just don’t find it the best use of time to tell you that good pitchers pitched good.
The struggles continued for Rafael Devers. He leads the league (by far) with a 65% K% early on. And he’s 0/19.
Most hitters will have a stretch of give games where they really struggle. That’s one thing. It’s another thing to have a 45% Contact% and a 65% K% over 23 PAs. I still have to view him as a buy-low, but every whiff makes you a little bit more worried that something is not right.
Maybe it’s just an adjustment thing? Going from playing third base to being the DH is probably weird. I mean, I feel like you could do that without needing a week of with no hits and striking out three times per game, but what do I know?
Some other early season guys struggling with the whiff:
Julio Rodriguez: 52% Contact%
William Contreras: 58%
Brandon Lowe: 59%
Eugenio Suarez: 60%
Austin Riley: 60%
Willson Contreras: 60%
Matt Chapman: 60%
Matt Shaw: 60%
Corbin Carroll: 62%
Bryan Reynolds: 62%
It’s funny to see Suarez there with his five homers in 20 PAs. He’s only struck out four times. We’re talking about a five-game sample for most of these guys, I need to settle down.
The Hot Hitter Tracker has returned.
This is in the daily notes every day. It compares the last seven days with the “career” numbers and see who has been performing much better lately. By “career”, I mean 2023-2025. So keep that in mind.
It looks for hitters who have improved in
Contact%
Exit Velo
Chase%
So these are hitters swinging at good pitches, making contact at a higher rate, and hitting the ball harder than they usually do.
I think there’s way more randomness in this than people want to admit, but a lot of people love the hot hitter tracker. And everybody who has ever played baseball will go to their deathbed claiming that a hitter can truly be hot or cold. So I’ve just had to swallow my thoughts about it. There are plenty of things I don’t know.
Anyways, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Andres Gimenez, and Bo Bichette look very good early on.
That’s an awfully good sign. He has started all three games against righties and was benched against the one lefty they’ve seen.
He’s been buried in the lineup, but if he keeps this up, he’ll be up there hitting 5th or 6th pretty soon, I’d imagine.
That lineup tracking tool is also in the Resource Glossary.
There’s an absolute ton of stuff here… I fully use my own resources to do all of my writing and podcasting. Over the last few years I’ve just solved my own problems. I’ll think of something that would be useful for me to have, and instead of looking around the Internet to see if it already exists, I just create it myself. And you all get the benefit!
That’s it for today’s daily notes. Back soon with a big slate preview for these Wednesday afternoon games!
