MLB Daily Notes - April 4
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
The Daily Notes are the flagship resource of MLB Data Warehouse. Every morning, Jon breaks down the current goings on in the fantasy baseball world, and an automated daily report gets you up to date on key stats and trends. Become a paid subscriber at MLB Data Warehouse to get this unlocked in your inbox every morning!
It’s the dreaded first double header day of the season. You’d think I would’ve figured out an air-tight way to handle double headers with the projections, but I still haven’t. It looks pretty good for the Royals, the projections show “KC” and “KC2”, like I set up. But for Milwaukee, I just have “MIL” for both games. And it’s using the same lineup for both teams in both games. And that’s not going to happen. And when the game one real lineups do come out, it will probably use the those for both game one and game two.
I wrote the base of these projections like 3-4 years ago now, and I wasn’t all that great of a coder at that point, and we didn’t have the AI stuff to help. I should have projected on the GAME IDs rather than the team combination. But back then, I didn’t even know the MLB API existed! How did I even live 30+ years of my life without that knowledge?
Walk rates are up early on (not counting intentional walks):
→ 2025: 8.2%
→ 2026: 9.3%
And so are strikeouts:
→ 2025: 22.3%
→ 2026: 24.2%
The best possible explanation for that is probably just the early-season rust. Pitchers don’t have the pristine command yet, and hitters are a little slow.
At this point last year, the league walk rate was above 9% as it is now. The strikeout rate wasn’t up, though. It was about the same every month. Swinging strike rate is up (12.1% → 12.8%) significantly as well. We’ll keep an eye on that. I did see something about fastball velo being up as well. That’s been happening every year, but you would expect more velo to equal more strikeouts.
Not sure if there’s anything actionable to do about that in the fantasy game. But if you’re a prop betting bro, maybe those over strikeouts lines are a little bit more advantageous right now.
The walk thing isn’t helped by seven different guys walking 5+ in single starts.
Eury Perez added his name to that list yesterday against the Yankees. Horrible start for him with the 4:6 K:BB. He looked really, really good in his first start though (against the Rockies). I wouldn’t budge on guys like Eury any time soon.
Emmet Sheehan struggled again, this time against the Nationals.
5.67IP 7H 4ER 4R 2K 3BB
So that’s pretty discouraging. The fastball velo is way down from last year.
You don’t drop the guy, you can’t trade the guy, you just hope that he’s still getting there. He did have a late start to spring with an illness. So maybe he’s still getting the strength back. If anything, I’d try to buy a little low on him.
Remember that’s the general rule here in April. Take advantage of slow or hot starts via trades.
Kyle Bradish and Dylan Cease did not give great results in the box score, but they both got a ton of whiffs.
It’s a pretty sharp idea, I think, to buy the pitchers who have the stuff working, but not the command yet. It’s reasonable to think that the command will improve as we get into the groove of the season. You’ll see guys improving their command in-season way more often than improving their stuff.
I’ve always said that the Kyle Bradish fastball is a problem and it could be something that keeps him away from the heights that a lot of people think he can access. And through 58 sinkers and 13 four-seamers thrown so far, it looks like I might be onto something. But yeah we don’t have a sample size yet.
Reid Detmers: 6.2IP 3H 0ER 0R 4K 4BB
He got through it, and a 13.3% SwStr% is good. But he didn’t command it well. I’m still pretty hesitant that he’s going to hold up. But at least he’s showing the strikeout ability in the rotation.
Is Aaron Nola going to have a Springer-esque veteran breakout (break… back.. out?) season? He has 16 strikeouts in two starts after punching out nine Rockies in Coors.
His two game logs:
His 2026 main dashboard profile:
The curveball is cooking!
Speaking of the Phillies, Zack Wheeler is on a rehab assignment. The fastball is averaging just 92.9mph. That’s a far, far cry from what we’re used to.
But he’s probably ramping up slowly and taking it easy. I imagine he builds back to 94-95 pretty soon. He averaged 96 last year with a lot of pitches much higher than that. Just #something #to #monitor.
In fact, maybe you could get a nice price in a trade for Wheeler. You’ve eaten the two missed starts already, maybe someone will think they’re sharp getting a guy they perceive to be an ace without having to wait as long for him.
Nick Kurtz has one hit and 13 strikeouts this year. An 0/5 against Cristian Javier and company last night in that first home game while his team scored 11 runs.
Tough start! He has a brutal 56% Contact%. He’ll probably get it going in due time and have some massive, Judge-like weeks and months. Another guy to look to buy low on if the Kurtz owner in your league is a bit of a fish.
Here’s the rest of the sub-60% Contact% club:
There’s that 38% K% we were worried about with Murakami!
Colson Montgomery was in my dream last night. I was working in an office and some dudes convinced me to do a fantasy baseball draft with them. I thought it was free, so I just did it. Then they told me it was a $3,800 entry fee. So I got mad and started telling them I’m not paying and I got auto-drafted Montgomery in the first round. That was a terrible dream and I’m super glad to be awake now.
That’s all the time I have, other than to say that if Michigan beats Arizona tonight, my wife wins our March Madness pool, and she’s very excited about that. Shout out, once again, to Helga.