The Rays just don’t miss. Whenever they’re supposed to smash, they smash. 22 runs in two games in Sacramento now with one left to play this afternoon.
And they did with Taylor Walls and Carson Williams grabbing three homers and six RBI. That is funny. Walls has 24 career homers, and two of those came last night. They were the first two of his MLB season this year. He’s hitting .216/.305/.300 this year, that’s a higher OBP than SLG even after the two dingers. The guy has a .198/.289/.298 slash line since 2021.
Going back to 2021 and requiring 1,000 PAs, Walls is the 8th-worst hitter in baseball by wRC+.
Worst Hitters Since 2021
Austin Hedges 47 wRC+
Nick Allen 55
Martin Maldonado 60
Garrett Hampson 66
Kevin Newman 70
Michael Toglia 70
Brenton Dyle 70
Taylor Walls 71
Patrick Bailey 72
Christian Vazquez
This is a list mostly of catchers and Rockies. But with the Wander Franco career derailment, and Walls' defensive abilities, he’s been in the Majors enough to play some games every year and get his way to almost 2,000 PAs.
Carson Williams didn’t even start in the game but subbed in for Junior Caminero when it got out of hand, and he hit his first homer of the year. He has a .154/.201/.316 slash line in 146 PAs in MLB the last two years. He’s a defensive wiz, one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, we think. If he could only hit .220 or something, he’d be their starting shortstop, but he hasn’t been able to do that with a 39% K%. But playing the Athletics in Sacramento is something like playing a bad AAA team.
It’s kind of embarrassing for baseball at this point. 30 teams, more than 10 billion dollars in yearly revenue for MLB, and here we are playing games in minor league parks with teams that have like a handful of pitchers who should actually be in the Major Leagues.
Six dingers for the Rays last night. Yandy, Caminero, and Mesa added one each to the three from Walls and Williams.
And we have one more year of games in Sacramento. I’m ready to be done with it.
It’s even worse because the Athletics can’t even score runs there anymore. Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers are done for the year (not confirmed with Kurtz but very probable), and they got complete-game’d by Nick Martinez last night.
The Padres were the other big scoring offense of the night. 17 hits, 11 runs against a good Brewers pitching staff. That was pretty surprising in San Diego.
I would not want to stream pitchers against the Padres any longer. They have really gotten it together.
Big game from Luis Campusano, so it was just an all-time night for the league’s worst hitters. But three hits for Machado, two for Merrill, two more for France, and a big four-RBI game from Luis Rengifo of all people.
Kyle Harrison got romped here.
That was a surprise. Ten hits, eight runs, just three strikeouts after he mowed down ten last time in five innings. That sent his ERA from 2.84 to 3.47.
This was his second eight-run allowance of the year, but that first one was in the ridiculous Las Vegas series which shouldn’t even count.
Harrison’s velo was down yesterday:
His SwStr% was way down (7.8%), and he got TRUCKED for three homers and a .422 xwOBA on a 35.6% Strike%. Terrible stuff from Harrison. You wonder if he’s healthy. He just came off the IL and had to leave that first start early. So you might be puckering the cheeks a bit right now if you were counting on him for the fantasy playoffs this year.
Paul Skenes - 5.0IP 5H 1ER 2R 4K 1BB
Fine box score result, but it’s panic time nonetheless. They yanked him after 65 pitches. He got four whiffs and had his lowest fastball velo of the year.
Is he hurt? Are the Pirates waving the white flag on the season and shutting him down? Should the Pirates just jab him with microneedles until something gets fixed? We’ll see ya next year, Pirates. Or will we?
Speaking of low whiffs. Just three for Nolan McLean.
→ 6.0IP 1H 1ER 1R 3K 2BB
Didn’t get strikeouts either, but still a clean six innings with a 0.5 WHIP. Not sure how he pulled that off. A 44.7% Strike%, a 3:2 K:BB, that usually turns out very badly but that dude just doesn’t follow the rules.
Hunter Brown - 5.0IP 5H 3ER 3R 4K 3BB
This was a disappointment to given the matchup with the Giants in AT&T Park. 44.9% Strike%, six whiffs, 6.7% SwStr%, 89 pitches to get 15 outs.
He has not had a good season. I couldn’t really victory lap Brown from the pre-season before because of the time he missed due to injury. But I think I can call it a win now.
3.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 10.9% K-BB%, 1.2 HR/9. That’s not a good pitcher. There’s plenty of hope for the future, but I’ve always viewed him as more of an SP3 for fantasy leagues rather than the SP1 price he was taken at this year. So I got some things right this year.
A bad start (relatively) from Dylan Cease.
→ 5.0IP 5H 3ER 3R 7K 4BB
Still ripped off seven strikeouts, but four walks, five hits, three runs. It was just 14 fantasy points, his fourth time below 15, and the first time since mid-May.
The Red Sox can do no wrong. Except I guess they can because they lost this game.
And their second loss in a row to the lowly Blue Jays. Who led off with Charles McAdoo and Brett Bateman.
Talk about a World Series hangover season.
Now for some good news.
Sean Burke - 7.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 8K 0BB
20 whiffs for Burke against the Reds. The MLB DW projections had Burke ahead of Cease, and that looks pretty sharp now. He was a DFS fixture for me last night and I had a pretty nice night.
21.3% SwStr%, 26.6% Ball% oh boy! That was only the 28th start of the year from an SP where they went 20%+ SwStr% and sub-28% Ball%. Very impressive stuff from Burke, who has somehow become an ace for the White Sox.
Cody Bradford - 7.0IP 5H 3ER 3R 1K 1BB
Uncommon start here. Seven innings, five hits, three runs, ONE strikeouts. This is the Bradford approach. He throws a ton of strikes and lets the ball get into play and hopes for the best.
He’s going to be a pretty good WHIP pitcher; we’ve liked him for a long time for that, but the K% is not going to be good, and the ERA will be mediocre at best since he’s allowing so much potential trouble with all the balls being hit into play.
He was a streaming pick yesterday. And I guess you’ll take it. Quality start, not a horrible ERA, and seven innings. But if you don’t benefit from the quality start, you didn’t get much to like here with the single strikeout. But he gets the Athletics next!
Nick Lodolo - 4.0IP 5H 4ER 4R 5K 0BB
He’s back again. 13 whiffs, 18.6% SwStr% in this one with a 34.3% Ball%. That’s some good news. But five hits, four runs, and THREE homers allowed is the bad news.
The White Sox got dingers from Brenton Doyle, Edgar Quero, and Miguel Vargas.
But I’m kinda encouraged by it. He had a 58% GB% with those good strike numbers. Sometimes you’ll give up a few homers. This was at least a step in the right direction for Lodolo in terms of SwStr% and Ball%.
The curveball is still very good; he just has to find the fastball location again. That’s been the real problem for him.
Eury Perez - 7.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 7K 2BB
Great stuff from Eury against the Pirates. 15 whiffs, 15% SwStr% (that means he threw 100 pitches), and a 7:2 K:BB. Ball% was a little high (38%), but the Pirates couldn’t get anything going against him whatsoever.
Eury since getting off the IL: 2.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 19.4% K-BB%, 0.33 HR/9
Looking like a fantasy ace, I think he’ll be a top 20 SP in drafts next year.
Blake Snell - 6.0IP 3H 1ER 1R 10K 1BB
Did not expect this! A 10:1 K:BB from an efficient Snell. Took him just 84 pitches to get those 18 outs. The Dodgers bullpen blew his win but the Dodgers won the game late.
96.2 on the fastball, 35% Ball%, whiffs on all of his pitches. Looked like prime Snell there. There’s never a guarantee with him, but if you’ve been holding onto him, you should feel very good about this start.
Mitch Bratt - 6.0IP 4H 2ER 2R 4K 1BB
Qualbanger from Bratt who has had two pretty good starts now after a really rough start to his MLB season.
The GB% at 25% is bothersome; he’s a fly ball pitcher that isn’t getting many whiffs. So I wouldn’t add him, but he’s a pretty decent prospect for the Diamondbacks and could end up figuring it out enough to be worth a spot in their rotation next year. No real upside with him for fantasy leagues, though.
Ryan Weathers - 5.67IP 2H 1ER 1R 4K 3BB
Not efficient. 106 pitches to get through 5.2 innings. He gave up a homer, just his second since June 24th. His last nine starts have been good:
The K-BB% is down from 21% to 16% in this sample, but he’s fixed the home run problem with that .39 HR/9, and maybe that’s the most important thing for a dude pitching in New York.
Bryan Woo - 5.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 5K 1BB
Just when we all started talking about his crazy home/road splits, he throws five scoreless on the road against a bad Yankees lineup.
A 9.8% SwStr% was bad, but a 58.7% Strike% was elite. He really had the command dialed in and threw a ton of strikes to a lineup that just isn’t much of a threat these days.
Martin Perez - 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 2K 3BB
This freak’ guy has a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this yaer despite an 18.6% K% and 10% BB%. He was CUT earlier this year but now you look back and would have to say he’s been the Braves second-best pitcher on the year.
Ground balls, weak contact… that’s how Perez gets it done. It’s hard to believe it can continue like this, but it kinda just has.
Andre Pallante - 6.0IP 4H 0ER 0R 2K 3BB
Another shutout performance with low K’s. Pallante is a weirdo pitcher, man.
Super useful season from him. The Cardinals are thrilled to get a 3.53 ERA out of him in 130 innings. The key for him is ground balls and that super low HR/9. He’s given up 10 homers all year and ZERO in his last five starts.
The Cardinals have gotten a decent ERA from their rotation which has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league.
Their starters have the fifth-lowest K% in the league at 19.8%:
But the 3.97 ERA is tenth-best. Ground balls matter. They have a team 46% GB%. That’s third-best in baseball.
Top Team GB% - Pitchers
SF 46.2%
NYY 45.8%
STL 45.6%
PHI 45.4%
DET 45.0%
The lowest in the league:
ATH 37.9%
HOU 39.1%
TB 40.3%
COL 40.4%
MIN 40.4%
I know the Athletics were put in a weird spot by having to do this weird ballpark transition and stuff without much money to spend on their roster, but you’d think they’d have prioritized getting some ground balls from their pitching staff in year two here in Sacramento.
It’s made worse by the fact that their hitters have the third-highest GB% in the league. So they’re doing it exactly backward. But enough Athletics hate for today.
Top Hitters
The Orioles got a couple dingers from the middle of the order.
Here’s the profile on Christian Encarnacion-Strand, the longest name in the league. And yes, I did confirm that:
The longest pitcher name is Simeon Woods Richardson at 23 characters, including spaces.
CES has a pretty nice 22% K%, 21.7% Brl%, and .406 xwOBA. They might have something with him here. But it’s 64 PAs, so who knows.
Alonso has been crushing the ball of late. He’s up to 26 homers.
You’re getting a nice stretch from the the Polar Bear.
And how about the damage that Esteury Ruiz has done when given the opportunity this year. He swiped and piped last night, hitting a home run off of Paul Skenes.
Here’s a stat. Esteury Ruiz leads the league in fantasy points scored per plate appearance.
DK Points Per PA Leaders, 150 PA minimum
The caveat there is that I had to limit it to just 150 PAs to get him in there. I’m sure he won’t do 2.87 for much longer. But look how far above the field he is! Six bombs, 28 steals…
He’s running almost every time he gets on base.
He’s super valuble for steals in leagues where you don’t have to play him in the games he doesn’t start in, which is very common.
He has a .266 AVG with a .204 xBA. The BABIP is .359. He’s so fast that he can definitely outdo his xBA, but not like this!
His career BABIP is .311, so he’s wayyy above that. And his K% is up there at 29% this year.
The walk rate is high, which doesn’t make sense either given his 48% Swing%. That’s about a league average swing rate, so it’s not a situation where he’s hunting walks. Pitchers just haven’t thrown him strikes, which really doesn’t make a lot of sense because he’s not a huge power threat.
So we’ll see major regression on AVG/OBP, and therefore steals coming from Ruiz. But I’ve had him on my home league team with daily roster changes, and he’s been a smash in that context.
Alex Bregman has found the homer swing of late.
Let’s do one of those things where I pick a very specific date to split on to make a point.
→ Before July 11th: 7 HR (59.4 PA/HR) → Since July 11th: 6 HR (19.3 PA/HR)
Since July 11th, he has a 4.7% Brl%. Red flag! Not barreling it anymore than usual. His air pull is 17.6%, which is not very high. His EV90 is 101.1, which is awful.
The only thing he’s doing “better” is hitting more fly balls.
Seems like kind of a fake power surge from Bregman.
But he’s been roster-worthy in most leagues. Going back to July 1st, he’s got an .825 OPS with a .270 AVG, 26 runs, 24 RBI, and those six bombs.
Jo Adell hit a dinger. Let’s check his short splits:
→ with LAA: .239/.287/.395, 23.7% K%, 3.5% BB%, 28 PA/HR → with CLE: .167/.344/.375, 31% K%, 15.6% BB%, 31 PA/HR
They have had him swing less:
→ with LAA: 54% Swing% → with CLE: 49% Swing%
So more walks with happen there. That could be good. But he’s not really stealing bags this year; hasn’t attempted one with Cleveland yet, so I don’t think we’re getting much fantasy value from Adell even on his new team.
Jacob Young with his tenth homer after having just five the previous two seasons. He’s swinging harder and trying to hit bombs this year, and it’s worked.
Pretty good ballplayer there, and a sneaky decent fantasy season if you have him like a 20-team league or something like that. OPS is up from .583 last year to .719 this year. Still not good, but better, and definitely an approach change that happened over the offseason.
Joc Pederson hit another dinger. 22 for him. Great bounce-back season from Joc.
Getting removed mid-game a lot when a lefty comes in, and DH-only eligibility makes him a tough add for fantasy leagues, but only 48 players have 20+ HR already and he’s one of them.
