MLB Daily Notes - August 12th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
No poop this morning, but my oldest son did pee all over the floor of his room. But I will take 10 wet underwear and carpet clean-ups over a single poop. Easy trade there.
Lots to catch up on. I really shut down my Internet usage this weekend, which is to say I paid very little attention to baseball. Relatively, I’m pretty decent with the phone usage. I know several people who cannot go even five minutes without being on their phone, and you’ll never catch them dead leaving the house without it. On weekends, I try to leave mine at home when we go do stuff. That is increasingly difficult these days. I need the app to claim that free mac and cheese with the rewards points every Sunday after church, stuff like that you know? Yesterday was a big day on that front. My wife made the move to order Young Trea Baby his own kid’s mac and cheese meal at the deli. So, add another $6.50 on to my Sunday lunch bill.
Pitcher Review
The big story of Sunday, from my perspective at least, is the start that Jeffrey Springs put up:
5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 8 K, 0 BB, 19 whiffs, 22.9% SwStr%, 54.2% Strike%
That was a big one after a couple of bad outings to start his season. He’s returning from Tommy John surgery, which isn’t an easy thing to do so we’ll probably see a mixed bag of results from Springs like we have so far.
Pitch mix from yesterday:
The toughest part about evaluating Springs is that we didn’t really know who he was before the surgery. He was pretty unknown before 2022, and then had a pretty nice season then, and then early in 2023 it looked like he had developed into ace, but we didn’t get enough of a sample to verify that before the injury. So the jury is still out, but this start shows us that the upside is there.
DL Hall struck out nine yesterday but didn’t do very well between those strikeouts:
4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 3 BB
He returned from a long IL stint and threw 92 pitches with a 13.0% SwStr% and a 51.1% Strike%, but a bad 39.1% Ball%. We know Hall has good stuff, but he’s never had much command and I think that will continue to hold him out of fantasy consideration.
Max Meyer threw more strikes yesterday (33% Ball%), but only got six whiffs this time for a 6.6% SwStr%. He did get deeper into the game:
6.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 K, 0 BB
Meyer has not been consistent. Sometimes, he’s gotten the whiffs but thrown too many balls, and other times, he hasn’t gotten the whiffs but has been okay in throwing strikes like yesterday.
I don’t know who Meyer is, but I’m pretty much just waiting until next year to figure it out.
David Festa struggled with efficiency yesterday in a start against Cleveland:
3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 K, 3 BB, 51.4% Strike%, 10% SwStr%
The key thing to notice is that he threw just 70 pitches. His pitch counts in the Majors this year:
78, 81, 73, 68, 82, 70
So it would seem they’re keeping him around 80. His numbers on the season aren’t bad, but there’s nothing that blows me away here, so I don’t think he’s much use in standard fantasy leagues.
Nick Lodolo just doesn’t have his normal stuff. He posted just a 5.1% SwStr% yesterday with a very poor 4:3 K:BB.
The SwStr% has been plummeting ever since that injury. I think he’s just not quite right. If he gets through the rest of this season healthy, he’ll be a target of mine in drafts next year since we should get a pretty good discount on him, and we’ll be able to believe he can get the nastiness back with full health heading into 2025.
Gerrit Cole was great on Saturday with a 28.9% SwStr% and ten strikeouts. The fastball velocity came back:
So this was a very good sign. It’s been up-and-down for Cole this year. But we’ve seen him get delayed a bit already this year after not recovering super well from a start, so it will be a good thing to see how his next start goes this week.
The best performance of Saturday, though, was Spencer Arrighetti:
7 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 13 SO, 1 BB, 22.8% SwStr%
That gives him 25 strikeouts in his last starts.
In these two starts, he has swinging-strike rates above 17% on all five of his pitches.
That’s insane stuff. I’m sure there’s a good amount of luck going into that, but this is a rookie, so we can believe a bit more about the in-season development. For the year, the Stuff+ is 92, so it wouldn’t seem likely that he’s really a 15% SwStr% guy, and for the year he hasn’t been (13.1%), but there’s a lot of good in the pitch mix and Arrighetti should certainly be rostered pretty much everywhere right now. The K-BB% is up to 17%.
Alex Cobb came back with 82 pitches and did this:
4.2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 K, 1 BB, 63% GB%
He is one of the best ground-ball pitchers in the league, but the command is spotty and the strikeout rate is unlikely to be any good.
Garrett Crochet won’t let us figure out if he’s on a pitch count or not, because he keeps giving up runs. He lasted just 2.1 innings on Friday, giving up just seven earned runs on nine hits to the Cubs. Since the All-Star break:
4 GS, 13.1 IP, 8.77 ERA, 17 SO, 7 BB, 6 HR, 25% K%, 10.3% BB%
The SwStr% is still great at 16.7%, but the Ball% has come up a bit to 35% and hitters are not missing his mistakes with a 15.9% Brl%.
I’d keep starting him, there’s no definite sign that the White Sox are going to stop him at 75 pitches, and the velo and the whiffs haven’t gone anywhere.
Some other big box score results from the weekend:
Ober: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 9 K, 2 BB
Myers: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9 SO, 0 BB
Eflin: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB
Webb: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 1 BB
Castillo: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB
Berrios: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 1 BB
Gilbert: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
Martinez: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 7 K, 0 BB
Nelson: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 9 K, 1 BB
Bryce Miller: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
Second Half SP K-BB% Leaders
Schwellenbach 34.0%
Arrighetti 30.9%
Snell 30.9%
Pivetta 30.6%
Imanaga 27.7%
Flaherty 27.1%
Rea 26.9%
Gilbert 26.1%
Elder 25.7%
Sale 25.7%
Holmes 25.6%
S Gray 25.0%
King 24.6%
Ryan 24.1%
Kikuchi 23.9%
Ober 23.8%
T Anderson 23.7%
G Williams 23.6%
Festa 23.0%
Cease 23.0%
I’ve bolded the names that could be available in your league. The guys I’d be rushing to add would be Schwelly (but if you read these notes, you picked him up a couple of months ago), Kikuchi, and Williams.
I’ll talk more about some of those guys in a podcast episode later.
Hitter Review
Weekend fantasy points leaders:
Soler 81
Alvarez 69
Burger 66
Bregman 65
Merrill 59
Teoscar 56
McCarthy 56
Olson 52
Judge 52
Chisholm 51
Raleigh 48
Hilliard 45
Stanton 43
Willson Contreras 42
Isbel 42
Pena 42
Carroll 42
Adolis 42
Ozuna 41
Soto 41
Jorge Soler hit four homers in three Coors Field games. That environment certainly helps. Here are his marks as a Brave:
43 PA, .297/.395/.649, 4 HR, 27.9% K%, 14.0% BB%, 20% Brl%, 7 R, 10 RBI
So all of those Braves homers were in Coors. The strikeouts have been high, but he’s hitting hard fly balls and that’s what we want from Soler for fantasy purposes. In my view, he’s a must-start outfielder.
Jake Burger has also really turned it on. Since July:
146 PA, .313/.377/.695, 1.071 OPS, 15 HR, 18.2% Brl%, 30.1% K%
Still a lot of strikeouts, which was not a problem for him last year, but the homers have come in bunches lately. And that was somewhat predictable; the guy has a ton of raw power, and he just wasn’t going to be held down for that long. His 15 homers since July 1st lead baseball
Jackson Merrill could be your NL Rookie of the Year favorite now after the weekend. He has had a fantastic season:
.290/.320/.482, .801 OPS, 17 HR, .360 xwOBA
From the first game of the year, he’s been hitting a lot of balls hard without whiffing very much at all. But recently he’s been lifting the ball more, which has turned into a barrage of homers.
Among hitters with a contact rate above 78%, he’s ninth-best in the league with a 43.4% hard-hit rate. A very good combination of skills.
Alex Bregman has finally realized that he’s a free agent in a couple of months and he’s been ripping right along in the second half:
.279/.333/.523, 5 HR, 9.7% K%
The turnaround happened when the calendar turned to June. Since then:
259 PA, .298/.355/.492, 10 HR, 1 SB
Before that he had just a .652 OPS with seven homers. But his .319 OBP and .754 OPS are both career-worsts for him. He’s not a raw power or a speed guy, so there’s always been a pretty big downside as far as rotisserie fantasy goes, but he’s had a nice few months lately.
I’ve gotta eat some breakfast and then do some real-life work, but again we’ll be back later with a podcast to talk more about the weekend.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jeffrey Springs
2. Hunter Brown
3. Spencer Schwellenbach
4. Dylan Cease
5. Tanner Bibee
6. Albert Suarez
7. Luis Severino
8. JP Sears
9. Cristopher Sanchez
10. Luis Castillo
11. David Festa
12. Tyler Glasnow
13. DL Hall
14. Hayden Birdsong
15. Andrew Heaney
16. Chris Bassitt
17. Keider Montero
18. Max Meyer
19. MacKenzie Gore
20. Bailey Falter
21. Nick Lodolo
22. Merrill Kelly
23. Jack Kochanowicz
24. Kyle Freeland
25. Marcus Stroman
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. NYM): 29.9 Points
2. Hunter Brown (vs. BOS): 25.79 Points
3. Albert Suarez (vs. TB): 22.01 Points
4. Jeffrey Springs (vs. BAL): 21.65 Points
5. Tanner Bibee (vs. MIN): 21.16 Points
6. Spencer Schwellenbach (vs. COL): 18.7 Points
7. JP Sears (vs. TOR): 18.15 Points
8. DL Hall (vs. CIN): 17.71 Points
9. Jack Kochanowicz (vs. WSH): 17.06 Points
10. Tyler Glasnow (vs. PIT): 16.15 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 19 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
2. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 17 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
3. Dylan Cease (SD): 17 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Hunter Brown (HOU): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. Luis Severino (NYM): 16 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
6. Albert Suarez (BAL): 16 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
7. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
8. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 13 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
10. DL Hall (MIL): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hunter Brown (HOU): 56.8 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
2. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 54.2 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
3. Randy Dobnak (MIN): 52.9 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
4. David Festa (MIN): 51.4 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
5. DL Hall (MIL): 51.1 Strike%, 39.1 Ball%
6. Luis Castillo (SEA): 49.0 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
7. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 48.1 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
8. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 47.9 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
9. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 47.6 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
10. Bailey Falter (PIT): 47.3 Strike%, 35.5 Ball%
11. Luis Severino (NYM): 46.7 Strike%, 40.2 Ball%
12. Keider Montero (DET): 45.9 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
13. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 45.8 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
14. JP Sears (OAK): 45.4 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
15. Hayden Birdsong (SF): 44.7 Strike%, 40.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jack Kochanowicz: 93 Pitches, 23 Outs, 4.04 POUT
2. JP Sears: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
3. Tyler Glasnow: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
4. Albert Suarez: 94 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.7 POUT
5. Max Meyer: 91 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.79 POUT
6. Tanner Bibee: 84 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.94 POUT
7. Nick Lodolo: 79 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.94 POUT
8. Luis Castillo: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT
9. Spencer Schwellenbach: 96 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.33 POUT
10. Jeffrey Springs: 83 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.53 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 87.2
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 83.7
Kyle Freeland's SI velo (15 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 91.3
Luis Severino's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.3
Hunter Brown's FF velo (37 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 97.6
Andrew Heaney's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 83.8
Hunter Brown's FC velo (25 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.9
Tanner Bibee's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 81.6
DL Hall's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 81.2
Kyle Freeland's FF velo (19 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 91.3
Marcus Stroman's FS velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.0
MacKenzie Gore's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 81.2
JP Sears's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 79.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Falter's SL usage (31.2%) up 12.5 points
Cristopher Sanchez's CH usage (45.8%) up 11.9 points
David Festa's CH usage (41.4%) up 13.5 points
Hunter Brown's FC usage (26.3%) up 18.3 points
JP Sears's SI usage (15.5%) up 10.8 points
Jack Kochanowicz's SI usage (74.2%) up 13.0 points
Luis Severino's ST usage (27.2%) up 19.8 points
Nick Lodolo's SI usage (26.6%) up 15.7 points
Randy Dobnak's CH usage (51.0%) up 17.0 points
Randy Dobnak's FF usage (19.6%) up 12.4 points
Tyler Glasnow's SL usage (43.9%) up 12.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Paul Skenes Sinker: +29.3%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -28.2%
Tanner Houck Slider: -25.4%
James Paxton Sinker: +22.6%
Luis Gil Slider: +22.4%
JP Sears Sweeper: -19.9%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -19.8%
Brady Singer Sinker: +18.1%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -16.8%
Marco Gonzales 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
Kyle Harrison Slurve: +14.3%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Hayden Birdsong Curveball: +14.1%
Logan Webb Changeup: +14.0%
Tyler Glasnow Slider: +13.6%
David Peterson Sinker: -13.4%
Marco Gonzales Sinker: -13.3%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.2%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -13.1%
David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +13.1%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -13.0%
James Paxton Curveball: +12.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.7%
Ryan Feltner Curveball: +12.7%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -12.7%
Ben Lively Sinker: -12.6%
Ross Stripling Curveball: +12.5%
Luis Gil Changeup: -12.5%
Josh Winckowski Sinker: +12.3%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 78 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 36.6% CSW%
Spencer Arrighetti - 97 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 113 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
David Festa - 73 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 97 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 76 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Grant Holmes - 77 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 39.2% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 37.3% K%
Spencer Arrighetti - 97 TBF, 37.1% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 69 TBF, 34.8% K%
David Festa - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 33.8% K%
Robbie Ray - 84 TBF, 33.3% K%
Grant Holmes - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%
Carlos Rodon - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
Gavin Williams - 89 TBF, 31.5% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - 97 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Grant Holmes - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 88 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Gavin Williams - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 74 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Nick Martinez - 71 TBF, 25.4% K-BB%
Jack Flaherty - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Shota Imanaga - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 92 TBF, 69.1% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 90 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Dylan Cease - 78 TBF, 60.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 106 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Jose Soriano - 92 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Mitch Spence - 71 TBF, 54.5% GB%
Tanner Houck - 105 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Bryan Woo - 70 TBF, 53.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Elder - 46 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Cody Bradford - 48 TBF, 29.2 K%, 4.2 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Framber Valdez - 78 TBF, 30.8 K%, 6.4 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Gavin Williams - 89 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, 44.6% GB%
Hunter Brown - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 54.1% GB%
Joe Ryan - 54 TBF, 31.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 88 TBF, 28.4 K%, 2.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Luis Castillo - 101 TBF, 28.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Sonny Gray - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 6.6 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 37.3 K%, 2.7 BB%, 55.6% GB%
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