MLB Daily Notes - August 14th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
First day of school! My daughter begins kindergarten today. We are sending our kids to the Christian school that our church operates. The fantastic part about Indiana is that we have school choice laws here, which allow us to apply our tax dollars to the private school of our choosing - so it’s of very little additional cost to us.
If we still lived in Pennsylvania, it would be extremely expensive - probably prohibitively so - to send our kids to a private school where they can have their education given through the lens of our faith - so I’m feeling very thankful about that today.
Pitcher Review
It’s extremely funny that George Kirby shows up at the top of my “Yesterday’s SP Data” sheet today. He led the day with a 17.4% SwStr%, but everything else went almost historically bad for him.
3.2 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 11 R, 5 K, 1 BB
He was majorly aided by a scoring change that turned a hit into an error and saved him five earned runs. His line when he left the game had 13 hits and 11 earned runs on it, one of the worst lines we’d ever seen.
The funny psychological thing to do this for Kirby owners is that you probably saw that 11 earned runs last night and got very depressed. And then you saw it change to six, and you started feeling amazing about it. But if you had just opened the app to see 3.2 IP, 6 ER, you’d be really pissed. But since it could have been way worse, you’re feeling pretty good about the six.
Here’s the error that was labeled a hit at first. That's a pretty clear throwing error there; not sure why they didn’t get that right at first.
Baseball is funny with determining what is earned and what is unearned. I’m guessing most people reading this understand it, but maybe just to explain it to some people who have never figured it out. Here’s that inning:
Kirby gets Baez out, and then Vierling reaches on a fielding error. So there are two outs that Kirby should have gotten. Then he loads the bases; that’s all his fault. But he strikes Parker Meadows out, who should have been the third out. Therefore, everything after that is no longer Kirby’s fault as far as earned/unearned goes. He should have been out of the inning. The next guy hits a grand slam, and all four of those runs go as unearned since he should have been out of the inning before having to face Rogers at all.
If we were being completely fair in the fantasy game, we would have some kind of adjustment for WHIP as well. If you don’t count the earned runs against him from that homer, why should you count the hit? They should incorporate some kind of unearned hits or something.
Let’s not let all of this distract us from the fact that Kirby gave up 12 hits. Only 57 pitchers since 2021 have given up 12 or more hits in a single outing. It’s happened 16 times this year:
Only Ben Lively has given up more than 11 runs in a single outing since 2021, but there are a bunch of guys that have given up 11. Interestingly, nobody has given up exactly 12.
The Tigers hit .500 off of him yesterday (.563 BABIP) with a .345 expected average, and they hit three homers (two of which came from Kerry Carpenter in his first game off a long IL stint). You are never going to give up that many hits without a good amount of bad luck, but clearly, Kirby was pitching very poorly, and he damaged many fantasy owners. And some leagues are already in their playoffs - ouch!
The pitcher to watch last night was Zebby Matthews, who made his Major League debut for the Twins. His calling card was a sub-2% walk rate in the minors. Here’s his first box score line as a Major Leaguer:
5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 0 BB, 7.8% SwStr%, 44.2% Strike%, 36.4% Ball%
He did enough to coast to a win as the Twins loaded him up with run support, but the numbers aren’t all that impressive here. Only six whiffs on 77 pitches and a league-average ball rate!? The zone rate was low, too, at 44%. We can’t judge anything off of one start, of course, but I would have predicted a 32% Ball% or so for this guy, given what he did in the minors. And I still would expect that moving forward.
Here’s the pitch mix:
So he’s pretty much four-seamer + slider + cutter, which can work. The fastball velo is fine but nothing special, and hitters put it in play on all but one of their swings.
He attacked righties with just those main three pitches, saving the eight curves and changeups for lefties.
One thing with pitching analysis I don’t mention as much as I should is this ability to attack the opposite side of the plate. We often see situations where a right-handed young pitcher just doesn’t have the tools to get Major League lefties out. If you don’t have completely elite stuff, you’re usually going to need a changeup/cutter/splitter or something other than a fastball and a slider to get those lefties out consistently. Matthews certainly has this, with five different pitches he’s willing to throw to lefties. That will help.
Here’s how he attacked righties:
And how he attacked lefties:
There’s no doubt that he’ll stay in the rotation for the short-term at least. Overall, I would say this outing was uninspiring, but it’s too early to make any kind of judgment on him. What we would want to see next time is a much lower ball rate, more whiffs overall, and especially a few more on the four-seamer.
Hunter Greene puked again, but practice makes perfect and he was able to pitch successfully between regurgitations.
7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, 15.1% SwStr%, 52.8% Strike%
Impressive stuff once again. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this year when you look at the full picture:
24 GS, 143.1 IP, 27.8% K%, 9.1% BB%, 2.83 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
The key for Greene was always
→ Limit walks (9% or better)
→ Limit homers
We’ve never had any doubts about his strikeout ability, but there was the downside that he could end up with a pretty bad ERA because of the 9.5% BB% and 1.6 HR/9 he came into this year with. He has improved very well in both of those marks this year (9.1% BB, 0.69 HR/9).
Breaking down his fly ball profile:
2022: 36.2% FB%, 18.8% HR/FB
2023: 35.5% FB%, 17.5% HR/FB
2024: 31.5% FB%, 10.0% HR/FB
So, he is allowing fewer fly balls than before, which is a point in his favor, but he’s also benefiting from a very low 10% HR/FB. That mark is 13.8% at home, which makes sense, given the ballpark stuff, but it’s still much lower than the league-average 18.7% HR/FB in Cincinnati over the last three years.
I think he’s bound to give up a higher home run in the future, but that shouldn’t push him out of the “very good fantasy pitcher” range, given his nice 18-20% K-BB%.
Eduardo Rodriguez made his second start back from injury. And by that I mean his second start in any form of professional baseball game.In these two outings (at Cleveland and at home against the Rockies):
He has a 9.5% SwStr% and a 42% Strike%. Not good stuff so far, but again, he’s just getting back in the swing of things.
He’s fine in a very deep league, but I wouldn’t worry much about him in standard leagues.
The BB King Joe Boyle is back. I love this guy so much.
4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 16.5% SwStr%, 48.2% Strike%, 36.5% Ball%
That’s actually some of his best work in walks and ball rate. It was the first time in his eight starts where he was under 40%.
For the season, he is at a 44.4% Ball%. He would not sniff a Major League rotation in any system other than Oakland or Colorado.
There are only six pitchers in the league with ball rates above 40% with eight or more starts, and none are above 41%. Boyle is just next-level with his frequency of throwing pitches outside of the strike zone.
To make things even scarier, his fastball averages 97 miles per hour. Can you imagine having had to face that dude in Little League? Some super tall 13-year-old piping 85 at you from 60 feet away and hitting the backstop more often than the catcher’s glove.
We faced a guy kind of like that in my men’s league game last Sunday. You aren’t allowed to throw more than like 65-70 miles per hour there, so there’s never any real risk of damage being done, but still, this dude was pushing that limit and just had no command at all. He was wearing out that chain link fence behind the catcher, man. He’d drop his arm way down in his delivery and wouldn’t even look at the plate until he was halfway to the plate. I had to duck like three times. The catcher was having just a miserable time, muttering insults about the guy the whole time. So I’m up there scared and also laughing at the catcher’s grumpiness, great times. We beat that team 14-0 to improve our season record to 2-6, hell yeah.
Charlie Morton will give you a lot of bad starts, but never two in a row.
Better stuff from Shane Baz again:
7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, 13.4% SwStr%, 45.4% Strike%, 33% Ball%
We were worried about the SwStr% early on, but it’s been better over his most recent four outings.
For the season now he’s at a 44.9% Strike%, a 12.0% SwStr%, a 20% K%, a 9% B B%, a 112 Stuff+, and a 98 Location+.
The pitch mix on the season now:
It’s an underwhelming pitch mix. A 49% Strike% on the four-seamer is good but not great, and this guy came up as one of the nastiest pitchers in the league, so we’ve fallen some ways since then. Even over these last four better starts, it’s still just a 49% Strike% on the four-seamer.
I really don’t know what to think about Baz. I used to think he’d be great if he could just stay healthy, but this year, he has stayed healthy and has not been great. Wait and see, I guess. I’d still be starting him in a 12-team league or deeper.
Hitter Review
Big shout out to Kerry Carpenter to start with. Let’s look at his career:
740 PA, .277/.337/.505, .843 OPS, 25.3% K%, 12.0% Brl%
Since 2022, Carpenter owns the 22nd-best OPS (.843) and the 22nd-best wRC+ (131) in baseball. He is a very good hitter, and he is very much underrated since he’s spent a lot of time on the IL and he’s been hidden a bit by the horrible Tigers lineup around him.
Another guy putting up very solid numbers while flying under the radar this year is Spencer Horwitz. He sports a .272/.357/.424 line with six homers and an 18% K%. That’s a very good OBP. The barrel rate is at 8.4%. That’s slightly above the league-average. It’s turned into two homers in August. I wouldn’t think he’s a reliable home run hitter given the exit velocity stuff, but in an OBP league, he’s very solid - especially with the 1B/2B eligibility.
James Wood also had a nice game with three hits. His season now:
.283/.369/.449, .819 OPS, 4 HR, 12.2% Brl%, 59% Hard%, 30.6% K%, 11.5% BB%, 59% GB%
The K% and GB% are both still too high, but they’re moving in the right direction, at least.
For now, you’re going to get some really big stretches and some very bad ones. He will be a polarizing player in drafts next year. I’m sure he’ll be pretty expensive; it will be another Elly De la Cruz situation where the floor is pretty low, but the ceiling is extraordinarily high.
Jake Burger homered again. He’s been extremely good since July began. He has eight homers and a 25% Brl% in August. He still has a 31% K% in this sample though, so there’s probably going to be a cold stretch coming, but the raw power stuff has returned to full form, and he should be started in every league.
I thought it was Wednesday yesterday, and I signed off saying that. But now I know what day it is, so - happy baseball Wednesday again.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Matthew Boyd
2. Hunter Greene
3. Joe Boyle
4. Tarik Skubal
5. George Kirby
6. Shane Baz
7. Charlie Morton
8. Kyle Harrison
9. Eduardo Rodriguez
10. Gavin Stone
11. Kevin Gausman
12. Yusei Kikuchi
13. Seth Lugo
14. Jake Irvin
15. Valente Bellozo
16. Carson Fulmer
17. Trevor Rogers
18. Austin Gomber
19. Taijuan Walker
20. Zebby Matthews
21. Paul Blackburn
22. Erick Fedde
23. Colin Rea
24. Javier Assad
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (vs. SEA): 31.1 Points
2. Hunter Greene (vs. STL): 30.75 Points
3. Kevin Gausman (vs. LAA): 24.95 Points
4. Valente Bellozo (vs. PHI): 24.75 Points
5. Gavin Stone (vs. MIL): 23.45 Points
6. Yusei Kikuchi (vs. TB): 22.96 Points
7. Charlie Morton (vs. SF): 21.3 Points
8. Matt Boyd (vs. CHC): 20.19 Points
9. Zebby Matthews (vs. KC): 18.25 Points
10. Shane Baz (vs. HOU): 16.35 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Hunter Greene (CIN): 16 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
2. George Kirby (SEA): 15 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
3. Kyle Harrison (SF): 14 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
4. Joe Boyle (OAK): 14 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
5. Charlie Morton (ATL): 14 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
6. Shane Baz (TB): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
7. Tarik Skubal (DET): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
8. Matthew Boyd (CLE): 12 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
9. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 11 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
10. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 11 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Matthew Boyd (CLE): 60.0 Strike%, 23.8 Ball%
2. Gavin Stone (LAD): 57.0 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
3. Carson Fulmer (LAA): 53.3 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
4. Hunter Greene (CIN): 52.8 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
5. Landon Knack (LAD): 51.6 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
6. Tarik Skubal (DET): 51.1 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
7. Yusei Kikuchi (HOU): 50.0 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
8. Charlie Morton (ATL): 49.0 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
9. Joe Boyle (OAK): 48.2 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
10. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): 47.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
11. Shane Baz (TB): 45.4 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
12. Kenny Rosenberg (LAA): 44.9 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
13. George Kirby (SEA): 44.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
14. Zebby Matthews (MIN): 44.2 Strike%, 36.4 Ball%
15. Kyle Harrison (SF): 43.8 Strike%, 39.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Valente Bellozo: 95 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.52 POUT
2. Shane Baz: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
3. Tarik Skubal: 88 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.89 POUT
4. Matthew Boyd: 80 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.0 POUT
5. Hunter Greene: 106 Pitches, 21 Outs, 5.05 POUT
6. Austin Gomber: 92 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.11 POUT
7. Zebby Matthews: 77 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.13 POUT
8. Kenny Rosenberg: 78 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.2 POUT
9. Erick Fedde: 89 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.24 POUT
10. Kevin Gausman: 106 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.3 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Landon Knack's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 86.8
Landon Knack's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 81.0
Joe Boyle's FF velo (58 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 99.2
George Kirby's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 84.2
Austin Gomber's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 79.2
Joe Boyle's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 89.2
Landon Knack's FF velo (35 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 94.7
Paul Blackburn's SL velo (14 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 79.5
Jake Irvin's SI velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 92.0
Trevor Rogers's FF velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 90.4
Kyle Harrison's SV velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 79.4
Kyle Harrison's CH velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 83.3
Javier Assad's FF velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 90.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Carson Fulmer's FF usage (44.0%) up 22.1 points
Kyle Harrison's CH usage (33.7%) up 15.3 points
Shane Baz's CU usage (28.9%) up 12.0 points
Taijuan Walker's SI usage (35.5%) up 10.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Paul Skenes Sinker: +29.3%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -28.2%
Tanner Houck Slider: -25.4%
James Paxton Sinker: +22.6%
Luis Gil Slider: +22.1%
JP Sears Sweeper: -19.9%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -18.4%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -17.0%
Bowden Francis Curveball: -16.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -16.3%
Luis Gil Changeup: -15.9%
Marco Gonzales 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -14.4%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Hayden Birdsong Curveball: +14.1%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +14.1%
Logan Webb Changeup: +14.0%
Tyler Glasnow Slider: +13.6%
Ben Lively Sinker: -13.5%
David Peterson Sinker: -13.4%
Marco Gonzales Sinker: -13.3%
Dakota Hudson Curveball: +13.2%
David Peterson 4-Seam Fastball: +13.1%
Dakota Hudson Slider: -13.0%
Taijuan Walker Sinker: +13.0%
James Paxton Curveball: +12.9%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.7%
Carlos Carrasco Sinker: -12.7%
Ryan Feltner Curveball: +12.7%
Paul Blackburn Cutter: +12.4%
Josh Winckowski Sinker: +12.3%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 39.4% CSW%
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 38.7% CSW%
Chris Sale - 99 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 99 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 105 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 75 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Brandon Pfaadt - 98 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
David Festa - 73 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 98 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 46.5% K%
Blake Snell - 97 TBF, 46.4% K%
Chris Sale - 99 TBF, 37.4% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 75 TBF, 37.3% K%
Bailey Ober - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
David Festa - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Framber Valdez - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Robbie Ray - 84 TBF, 33.3% K%
Grant Holmes - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%
Tarik Skubal - 105 TBF, 32.4% K%
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