Check out yesterday’s box scores here
I went to the A+ South Bend Cubs game last night with the wife and kids. I set a new record for watching 3.5 full innings. The kids are all at least three now, so we’re able to do stuff like sit still and watch. My daughter now knows that it’s extra tough for left-handed hitters to hit left-handed pitchers.
But we saw Bryce Rainer, the Tigers #3 prospect. Apparently he hit a homer right after we left. That’s a homer in five straight games for that guy, which is wild.
That stuff is for Tim to cover though. These here Daily Notes are for MLB talk.
Player of the Day
I think we should give it to Rafael Flores Jr. The Pirates catcher who came off the bench yesterday to hit two homers in a 4-3 Pirates win. He got the game within one in the seventh and then tied it in the ninth. And again, it was off the bench. Just the 11th time since 2021 a guy has hit multiple homers while not having started the game.
The MLB API uses “100” for the leadoff man, “101” for the first batter that takes that guy’s spot is “101”, the second guy “102”, and so on. Lil MLB API info for you coding bros. But I’m guessing you’d already figured out if you even know what the heck I’m talking about.
You might think I only picked him cause he’s a Pirate and they had a big exciting win yesterday. But you would be wrong! I don’t care about the Pirates anymore. I’m only a fan of them when they are above .500. That’s how it works. It’s a conditional commitment.
I wouldn’t be talking about Flores if he wasn’t starting to offer some fantasy league appeal. And hitting six homers in 56 PAs with a 1.140 OPS captures out attention.
What do we look for with a new/young hitter with a small sample? The first thing I usually do is check the prospect lists. Flores is nowhere near Tim’s top 150. Tim has him #25 in the Pirates org, which is not good.
Then we can look at the minor league numbers second. Here’s the last two seasons:
Nothing special here, either. He is hitting way more homers in the Majors than he did in the minors, another red flag.
Then we can go to the fScores:
A 100 overall grade. Not speed (which we don’t care about generally from a catcher). Some power and above-average discipline, so it’s not nothing.
But now we’ll check the MLB data from what he’s doing right now. We’re looking for some combination of decent discipline and contact rates with believable power numbers. So far:
78% Zone Contact%
39% Swing%, 25% Chase%
106.4 EV90, 107.6 EV90 on fly balls
42% GB%
21.2% Brl%
The EVs are good. The contact rate is not good, but it’s also not awful.
If this were a highly touted prospect who had crushed in the minors, those MLB numbers would be exciting. But since the bigger picture from the bigger sample didn’t have us interested in him, we’re less willing to buy into a couple of weeks’ worth of games in the MLB.
But we’re definitely going to get more look at him the rest of the season. Endy Rodriguez is hurt again, so he’ll start at least a few times a week for the Pirates, and I’d guess he’d be their #1 catcher just so they can keep seeing him. Henry Davis has done enough defensively and with some power to keep himself in the Majors, but he’s clearly not the “catcher of the future”.
Flores is fine as a deeper league add where you need a catcher, I can believe he’ll hit some more homers as we go forward, but don’t be mistaken into thinking this is a budding top prospect.
Let’s go to pitchers now, and then we’ll come back to hitters.
Brandon Pfaadt - 5.67IP 7H 5ER 5R 8K 0BB
He switched it all up. B-Fought got tired of not allowing runs while not getting any strikeouts. He decided to try the opposite.
It was a season-high in whiffs (17) and strikeouts. He didn’t get his hard overall (.280 xwOBA), but he gave up three homers. It was a looong time coming for him to give up some homers. He had a 13% HR/FB before last night, and now that shoots up to 16% (which is the league average).
Pfaadt has a miserable fastball but a decent sweeper and changeup thing going on. There’s no really good pitch in the mix. His streak of not allowing homers or xwOBAs above .300 every time out wasn’t going to last. So this was not a surprising start.
But if he had given up two runs instead of five, we’d be saying it was a major win for him since he finally got the strikeouts going! So the guy is giving us headaches trying to figure out how to view him for the rest of this season. He gets the Cubs and Phillies next if things stay on schedule, and I wouldn’t have wanted to use him for those starts regardless of what happened last night. So you can cut Pfaadt in 12-teamers or less.
AJ Smith-Shawver - 4.33IP 5H 4ER 4R 3K 3BB
He indeed re-entered the Braves rotation. This was just his second start of the year after he had a spring injury. I like to just look at the pitch stuff in these small samples:
Fastball has a good Stuff+ mark, but a 1.7% SwStr% on 60 pitches. He’s a splitter guy, so he’s looking a lot like Tyler Mahle who we’ve been talking about.
The velo is fine with AJSS, but he hasn’t been able to take a rotation job and lock it down so far in his young career (he’s still just 23 years old).
The 9.6% K-BB% in his 17 starts with a 1.2 HR/9 is disheartening. I’m not really a believer, but he’s got plenty of time. If he can just stay healthy and in the rotation, maybe the Braves will be able to develop him into a decent SP3-SP4.
Parker Messick - 6.67IP 6H 1ER 1R 10K 0BB
The second ten-strikeout game for Messick, and the first since June 23rd.
He’s been featuring the four-seamer more lately:
That pitch has been awesome for him this year. A 55% Strike%, 14.4% SwStr%, .226 xwOBA. And then he has a changeup with a 19.3% SwStr%. Messick is a high-floor young lefty. It’s been an incredible season for him: 2.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19% K-BB%, 0.85 HR/9.
He’s never looked like a super high strikeout guy to us here at MLB DW, but he’s just really really good at pitching and has a deep pitch mix. He has allowed more than two earned runs four times all year. You’ve been happy with his starts almost every single time.
The cut-off I like to use with fantasy point scoring (DraftKings scoring system) is 15 points. I call 15 points a “good” start. Messick has done that in 17 of 25 starts (68%). That’s 16th-best in the league.
Here is everybody above 65%:
Misiorowsk is the standard bearer of everything pitching this year. He has been under 15 points ONE TIME, and he scored 14.9 in that one.
Aaron Nola - 7.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 8K 0BB
I’ve been banging the Nola drum for a couple of weeks now. If you read all the stuff here, you have seen it! And I hope you added Nola.
19 whiffs, an 8:0 K:BB, seven innings. Gorgeous start.
His last three starts:
25 strikeouts, five walks, three homers, two wins. Those first two starts were five innings a piece, he was kind of inefficient due to five walks in those two. But he put it together last night.
He still gave up a homer, which he does almost every time. He’s made just six starts this year with no homers allowed.
But you can give up a 1.3 HR/9 or so if you’re going to pitch to a 17%+ K-BB%. Nola’s at 17% this year and 19% in the second half.
There will probably be another start or two where he gives up 2-3 homers and doesn’t get lucky in making them solo shots. I’m not saying he’s a top 40 SP now, but I like a lot of what he’s doing and think he should be streamed in advantageous matchups. He’ll go to Seattle next (a great matchup) and then to Arizona (kind of a bad matchup, but could be made better if Ketel Marte stays on the IL).
Cade Cavalli - 6.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 11K 1BB
He is finishing strong. 29 strikeouts in his last three. 40 and 37 fantasy points in his last two.
He had some home run issues driven by a high HR/FB early on. But he has cleaned up that pretty nicely. Down to a 0.95 HR/9 on the year with a 20% K-BB%.
Obviously a must-own dude. 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP since June began with a 28% K% and 6% BB%.
Chase Burns - 5.0IP 6H 2ER 2R 8K 2BB
Good stuff again from Burns. 104 pitches to get those 15 outs, so a lack of efficiency, but really good to see the Reds are still letting him go out there and throw a bunch of pitches.
He’s now +27 in innings from last year (that includes minor league stuff from 2025). That’s not as bad as I thought. But do they want him to throw another 30 innings this year? We’ll see. The Reds aren’t making the playoffs, so they could ease off, but obviously you’re just starting him no questions asked and taking whatever the Reds will let you get.
His fastball velo had come down in late July, but it’s back up near normal in the last two.
Paul Skenes - 4.33IP 4H 3ER 3R 5K 4BB
The extra rest did not help. It might have hurt. He had his worst command of the year with four walks in 4.1 innings. It’s been a disaster.
He’s at a 61.5% “Good Start Rate”. Full leaderboard on that here.
The dude still has a 22.7% K-BB% and 2.60 JA SIERA. He’s probably a “buy low” for next year given the underlying data, but I doubt he’ll slip very far in drafts.
I don’t know what it is. His velo did come back up to 96.8 yesterday after it bottomed out last time. Maybe he’s fatigued, maybe the World Baseball Classic ramp-up hurt him. Maybe he was just never as good as he showed in 2024-2025.
But it’s really something to have this bad of a season and still be at an elite K-BB% with a 0.98 HR/9.
Payton Tolle - 5.0IP 6H 3ER 3R 6K 2BB
He sailed through the first four innings but ran into trouble in the fifth. Not a great result from Tolle, but still an elite 55.1% Strike% and 30.6% Ball%.
The Diamondbacks are not easy to pitch against.
He’s also +27 on his innings from last year, but he’s the Red Sox SP1 right now as they hold onto a Wild Card spot, so I can’t see them limiting him at all. He’s a stud pitcher, I’m convinced he’s going to be one of the best in the league for the next several years.
He throws hard. And that’s good, but it also might mean he’ll get hurt. I would always lean in favor of hitters in keeper leagues because of the extra injury risk that comes with pitchers. But I’m pretty Tolle will be a top ten pitcher for me in 2027.
Clay Holmes - 5.33IP 6H 1ER 1R 1K 2BB
Normal Holmes stuff. A couple of walks, just one strikeout, but 5.1 innings with one run allowed.
The Cubs haven’t changed anything with him. He’s still throwing a bunch of sinkers and not getting whiffs. Just a 5.9% SwStr% with the Cubs so far, but a 72% GB%! 72%! You like ground balls if you’re the Cubs with the weird wind business in so many of their home games and with that elite infield defense.
But I’m a Holmes hater and I will continue to be. Give me strikeouts and WHIP or give me DEATH.
Drew Rasmussen - 5.0IP 7H 5ER 5R 5K 2BB
The guy just has to mix in some duds every once in awhile, doesn’t he?
A 3.01 ERA for Rasmussen now! Stop the presses! His first ever ERA above three.
But a 21.4% K-BB%, 0.94 WHIP, 0.87 HR/9. He’s up to 134.1 innings. The Rays limitations sneak up on you. It seems like Rasmussen should have more than this given that he’s made 24 starts and has been mostly free for the last several months.
When in doubt, the Rays will go to the bullpen. A quick hook here and a quick hook there add up.
But he’s on his way to 160-170 innings and he’s been super valuable for fantasy leagues.
Matthew Liberatore - 6.0IP 4H 3ER 3R 9K 0BB
You can never be fully out on Liberatore. He has a 23% K% and 8% BB% now. The 1.5 HR/9 is a problem, and he has some just awful starts . He’s been under ten fantasy points TEN times this year. But he’ll throw up some gems from time to time with the decent command and great curveball. And that’s what we saw last night with nine more strikeouts. He has 25 strikeouts in his last four with just four walks.
Jackson Jobe - 5.33IP 4H 1ER 1R 3K 3BB
Six whiffs, 3:3 K:BB, 44.2% Strike%, 38.4% Ball%. I don’t think he’s good. Just a 9.7% SwStr% on his big heater through three outings, and it’s been hit for two homers and a .442 xwOBA.
I wouldn’t really want Jobe in a 12-team league. He seems to me to be a guy who looks on tape but doesn’t actually fool hitters at the highest level.
I said “tape” there. I still see people saying “film”. And when was the last time video was done on those things? We have to update our language. You don’t “hang up” a phone anymore.
I do like that language better than saying “video” or “click”. What are you going to say after somebody terminates your phone call “hey that guy just freaking clicked off on me!”? Lame. But I like words, and I think it’s funny that we still use terms that haven’t been accurate in 20 years to describe things. I guess it’s all the same as long as everybody knows what you’re talking.
I have fond childhood memories of playing with the cord from the 90s phone hanging on our dining room wall:
That might be the exact phone my parents had.
Sandy Alcantara - 6.0IP 8H 3ER 3R 1K 1BB
Another Sandy quality start while he crushes your strikeout rate. He has 176.2 innings now to lead the league by 15. But an 18% K%. The 3.52 ERA is fine, and he has 20 quality starts to lead the league. So he’s been great in a lot of different league types.
Quality Start Leaders
20: Alcantara
18: Sanchez
17: Yamamoto
16: Gray, Wacha, E-Rod,
15: Bibee, McLean, Misiorowski, Sale, Schlittler, Cavalli
Michael Wacha has more quality starts than Jacob Misiorowski…
Roki Sasaki - 5.0IP 7H 2ER 2R 6K 1BB
More good than bad here! 18 whiffs, 26.3% Ball%, 58.6% Strike%, six strikeouts in five innings. Didn’t get the win, so I don’t hate myself for benching him in Coors. Fastball velo is still hovering around 98, which is what we want to see:
He’ll go to Atlanta next.. another tough one. But I think he’s earned a must-start label in most fantasy leagues.
The 4.42 ERA is ugly. But it’s at 2.31 in his last six starts since the break. 15% K-BB%, 0.5 HR/9 in that span. The home run thing is probably his biggest bugaboo. He’ll walk guys, but if he’s throwing hard, he’ll get strikeouts, which makes the home runs the tiebreaker, persay.
Max Scherzer - 4.0IP 5H 7ER 7R 1K 3BB
One strikeout, seven earned runs. He’s very bad, and lefties are basically taking batting practice against him.
There’s no reason for a team to leave a left-handed hitter on the bench when they’re up against him. They’ve walked more than they’ve struck out and have a .353 xwOBA.
Back to Hitters
Vinnie Pasquantino finally had a game. He popped his seventh homer of the year. The back injury has really derailed the season, I think. He might just not be very good, but I’m always willing to forgive bad performance when a guy has a back thing going on. He’ll be a decent buy-low for next year.
He still isn’t striking out much and he’s taking walks. The plate discipline is great and isn’t going away, he just hasn’t hit the ball hard at all (103.4 EV90, 101.1 on fly balls). That stuff should improve with health.
I didn’t buy into the 32-homer season, not at all. I think he’s the guy we saw in 2024. .260 batting average, 20ish homers, and a good number of RBIs if the Royals are hitting him in a run-production spot in the lineup.
Mookie Betts was the Dodgers bat to come through. He has a 4.2% HR% this year, his best mark since 2023.
Missed a lot of time so he won’t get to great counting stats, and the steals are gone (nine in the last two seasons). So if he’s not hitting for a good batting average and scoring a bunch of runs, he’s not so good for fantasy leagues. His xBA is .274 though. So he’s been unlucky with that .237 average. Just a .231 BABIP this year. Last year it was .258 and he’s at .296 career.
He’s probably a .265 BABIP guy at this point in his career with the declining physical skills.
The days of him being a top-ten SS are probably over. He’s 33, and just not a guy who was ever going to be much of a power hitter past his prime years. But he’s swinging for homers a little more this year, I think.
His barrel rate is up to 7.7% after 5.5% last year and 6.0% in 2024. Probably a conscious decision. Maybe he realizes he’s not as useful with the running anymore and will see the natural decline of his BABIP, so he’s going for more pulled fly balls. That’s what Jose Altuve did late in his career, and it’s a logical path to take for a smaller hitter who doesn’t want to go full Arraez.
And Betts could go full Arraez if he wanted to. I’m pretty sure he could hit .290 with ease, but he’d be hitting basically no homers with it.
He has ZERO opposite-field homers. And that’s probably by design. I doubt he could get hit more than a few if he wanted, that’s hard to do, you have to swing really fast.
The opposite-field home run leaders this year:
12: Pete Alonso
9: Yandy Diaz, Elly De La Cruz
8: Sal Stewart, James Wood
7: Rafael Devers, Munetaka Murakami
6: Harper
All guys with big bat speed and/or playing in Cincinnati where it’s easier to do that.
Big Coors game for Mickey Moniak. He homered and doubled. He has 20 homers now with an .847 OPS (the best mark of his career). The Rockies have done something right!
Sometimes all you have to do with a skilled player is tell him to chill the F out.
Mickey Moniak Swing% / Chase% by Year
2021: 54% / 36%
2022: 58% / 45%
2023: 61% / 46%
2024: 56% / 39%
2025: 56% / 38%
2026: 57% / 41%
Back in 2023, he just had no idea where pitches were going and was chasing at an absurd rate. The Angels helped him out with that in 2024 getting him under a 40% Chase%, and that number has basically carried over to Colorado. He’s still swinging a ton and chasing a ton, but it’s not like “I can’t believe he’s chasing that much” anymore.
Here’s everybody over a 40% Chase% this year:
It’s mostly a list of bad hitters. But Mangum, Rafaela, Harris, and Goodman have had pretty good seasons while doing that. It’s not a stat that is good to take in isolation.
Swing decision stuff overall is just not a stat that tells you very much unless taken in context of other things. The best “swing decision makers” are defined (by me) as having a high percentage of your swings coming at pitches in the zone. It’s a little bit elementary. Not all in-zone swings are created equal. But look at the top ten names and tell me if this is a list of good hitters:
Taylor Ward
Mookie Betts
Austin Martin
Kevin McGonigle
Gleyber Torres
Trent Grisham
Tyler Stepheneon
Evan Carter
JJ Bleday
Miguel Vargas
McGonigle and Vargas have been awesome, but the other eight aren’t helping many fantasy teams.
The bottom ten:
Sal Perez
Harris II
Goodman
Basallo
J Rodriguez
Bichette
A Martinez
Altuve
I Vargas
Mangum
More good fantasy players on this list than the first! So yeah, I don’t see much value in using these stats for fantasy baseball analysis.
Matt McLain had a nice game. The spring training MVP has had another poor season at the plate.
→ .199/.296/.350
That’s a disastrous .647 OPS. But hey, 11 homers and 15 steals to do some good for a standard roto league where the horrid batting average is only one of five categories.
Three hits, two runs, and a steal yesterday. He’s been worse at home… many such cases in the Reds data this year. Here’s Reds home and road wRC+:
Stewart has been better at home and good on the road, Elly has been elite at home and mediocre on the road. Bleday has been elite at home and horrible on the road. Those are the only guys really following the rules.
The Reds should build a lineup full of fly ball hitters and lean toward ground ball pitchers playing in that ballpark. Easier said than done, but they haven’t taken advantage of their unique home park, and they SUCK again this year.
That’s it and that is all. I’m heading to Pittsburgh for our fantasy football draft tomorrow, so content might be a little bit light tomorrow. But we’ll get everything out. I haven’t written ANYTHING for fantasy football draft prep this year, and I don’t think I’m going to. I’m not useful for that. But the in-season tools and DFS articles will come and they will be FUN and USEFUL. More on that here:
