MLB Daily Notes - August 28th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Big news - the MLB + Excel course will launch today, so keep an eye out for that! It will be $50, and it will teach you a lot of very useful Excel skills. I will send you videos that you can ingest at your own pace after you purchase it.
Pitcher Review
I have to start with my boy Jared Jones. He did not make me happy.
4 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 K, 3 BB, 9.6% SwStr%, 43.4% Strike5, 42.2% Ball%
Damnit. That’s about as bad as he’s been all year. We should probably forgive him since it’s his first Major League action since July 3rd, but remember - he wasn’t in very good form before the injury.
April: 21.6% SwStr%, 55% Strike%, 27.7% Ball%
May: 15.6% SwStr%, 49.1% Strike%, 32.0% Ball%
June: 13.8% SwStr%, 45.5% Strike%, 38.0% Ball%
He had other-worldly command early on. It was not surprising that he couldn’t maintain a Ball% that low, but it’s been far the other way since the calendar turned to June.
If you have him, I would give him one more chance in his next start. If the command still isn’t there, I’d bail on him for the rest of the year. These are crucial weeks, and we can’t be using starts on a guy who can’t throw strikes.
One reason for optimism from last night, his fastball was really good - he just did not have the slider.
Not a single whiff on the slider and a 60% Ball%. You would have to imagine the feel for the slider comes back next time, at least a little bit, and that could result in a very good start. But we’ll see. We know the kind of upside Jones’ has, so he’s tough to leave on waivers.
Jeffrey Springs led the day with a 20.3% SwStr%, and took me to a big DFS night.
5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 9 K, 2 BB, 57% Strike%
They pulled him with 79 pitches, that’s brutal if you’re in need of a quality start from him.
The updated pitch mix:
I’m not in love with those fastball numbers, but they’re fine. The pitch that brings home the bacon is the changeup, and it appears that the four-seamer is good enough to set it up how it needs to.
His pitch counts are the key:
76, 87, 83, 76, 82, 79
The Rays aren’t playing for anything, and they certainly view Springs as a big part of their rotation next year - so this is probably what you’ll see the rest of the way. In a 12-team league or deeper, I think he’s still worth a roster spot - but I don’t think you’ll see much more than five innings from him.
Spencer Schwellenbach was allowed to throw 106 pitches, but the Twins made it tough on him, and he only got through 4.2 innings.
4.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 8 K, 3 BB, 17.9% SwStr%, 52.8% Strike%, 36.8% Ball%
The three walks were uncharacteristic. That was the first time all year he walked more than two. So he didn’t quite have the command, and the Twins dragged out AB’s. It’s good to see the Braves willing to let him throw that many pitches, I presume they were just really hoping he could get through the fifth. Keep starting Schwelly, obviously.
I want to be done talking about Sean Manaea, but I can’t be.
6.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 11 K, 0 BB, 16.5% SwStr%, 58.3% Strike5, 29.1% Ball%
That’s a really good start. There have only been 51 starts this season with no walks and 10+ strikeouts. There have only been 18 with an 11:0 K:BB or better:
He is just so inconsistent. If you benefited from this start last night, you have set yourself up for him to bomb your team when it matters most in the next couple of weeks. I’m sick of him.
Gerrit Cole pitched okay but gave up a couple of dingers.
5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 12.1% SwStr%, 45.1% Strike%
I’ve just been keeping an eye on the pitch mix as we’ve accrued more and more data on him. Here’s what it looks like now:
A 12.3% SwStr% over 1,000 pitches from Cole is officially a red flag. This is not the Gerrit Cole we’re used to. The fastball has been good, no doubt, but we are used to Cole having a top-three fastball in the league, and that’s not what we’re seeing now. It seems that all of his pitches have just taken a step back, and that’s resulted in a much less impressive 25.6% K% and 8.1% BB% on the season.
We might be over the hill with Cole. I would not be too interested in using a premium pick on him next year.
We got the downside of Brandon Pfaadt last night:
4.2 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 8 R, 6 K, 1 BB, 11.2% SwStr%, 42.9% Strike%
Yesterday we talked about these “command specialist” types and how low their floor can be when they don’t have the command. To be fair to Pfaadt, he has better stuff than most of the guys in that group - but he does mostly have success because of his ability to locate. He did not have that last night, and you saw how rough it can be. He’s a fly ball pitcher to boot (43% GB%, 28% FB%), so balls in play can hurt him very, very bad.
He’s in pretty bad form overall, giving up a homer in four straight starts and having a 6.29 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP over his last six starts. It’s hard to feel confident with him when it matters most, but I still think there will be some nice outings from him
One guy I have hardly mentioned this year is Aaron Nola. He threw seven scoreless last night:
7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 K, 1 BB
So let’s take a look at his season marks:
27 GS, 166.1 IP, 12 W, 3.35 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 22.6% K%, 6.2% BB%
I imagine that you’re pretty happy with him if you drafted him in round 4 or 5. He’s just a solid arm that never misses a start. The strikeout rate has been falling though:
2018: 27%
2019: 27%
2020: 33%
2021: 30%
2022: 29%
2023: 25.5%
2024: 22.6%
So that’s a big drop. His 3.86 SIERA is the worst he’s shown since 2019, so he’s moving in the wrong direction. I don’t think I’ll be very interested in him next year (for the first time, I think!).
One more guy - Justin Verlander. He made his 12th start of the year and did okay:
5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 K, 1 BB
His season now:
67 IP, 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 21.4% K%, 6.8% BB%, 11% SwStr%, 48% Strike%
This is good stuff for a 41-year-old. But the days of Verlander being a good fantasy option are gone.
Hitter Review
Has it been long enough to where I can say good things about Jarren Duran again? What a season he’s putting together.
.294/.354/.528, .882 OPS, 22% K%, 8% BB%, 20 HR, 32 SB
We’re possibly looking at a 25-40 season. He’ll be near a first-round pick next year. The power has really come on lately.
Duran HR by Month
Mar-Apr: 1
May: 2
June: 6
July: 4
August: 7
In the first two months, he posted a 7.3% Brl% and a 48% GB%. Since June, those marks are 11.8% and 46%. He’s always hit the ball hard, it was just a matter of getting the ball in the air more - and he’s done that lately.
Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have scored more fantasy points than Duran since June 1st.
One of my subscribers shouted me out in the Discord about Duran last night. He brought up my perfect draft article, which I had forgotten about. It was fun for me to review that last night. Here’s what I had:
Round 1: Mookie Betts
Round 2: Franciso Lindor
Round 3: Zack Wheeler
Round 4: Skubal/Glasnow
Round 5: Nolan Jones
Round 6: McLain/Cruz
Round 7: Schwarber
Round 8: Munoz
Round 9: Casas
Round 10: Ober
Round 11: Hunter Greene
Round 12: Duran
Round 13: Burger
Round 14: Friedl
Roudn 15: O’Hoppe
Round 16: Hunter Brown
Round 17: Bryce Miller
Round 18: Candelario
Round 19: Estevez/Finnegan
Round 20: McMahon
Round 21: Bradley
Round 22: Rizzo
Round 23: Matt Chapman
Round 24: Stanton
Round 25: Canning
Overall I’d say that would have been a pretty successful team. We had injuries, of course, with Betts/Casas/McLain/Friedl. We had total disaster picks with Jones/Candelario/Rizzo/Canning, but there’s more good than bad here, and we really nailed that pitching staff. Imagine this core staff:
Wheeler
Skubal
Greene
Brown
Miller
That would’ve taken you a long way. So, shout out to me. Most of the times I’ve looked back at my recommendations, they’ve been bad, but in this case, they were good.
That’s a really fun article to write, I will have to make sure I do that again next year.
The Marlins scored nine runs in Coors Field last night. That was highlighted by Jesus Sanchez who homered and doubled and drove in four.
The most interesting Marlin right now is Connor Norby. Here’s his MLB season so far:
67 PA, .266/.299/.547, 4 HR, 13.3% Brl%, 28% K%, 4.5% BB%, 68% Contact%, .221 xAVG, .289 xwOBA
So there is a good amount of strikeout there, but he’s been able to barrel it and keep it off the ground (31% GB%). He’s been a bit better with the Marlins, but we should stick to that full-season sample there. I don’t think I’d use him in a 12-team league right now, but there’s some positive signal early on here. He will certainly be a fixture in the Marlins lineup next year.
On the other side of that game, Ezequiel Tovar went double-doink. Here’s his season line:
568 PA, .274/.298/.470, 21 HR, 4 SB, 29% K%, 3.2% BB%
If you don’t remember, Tovar is the league’s wildest swinger:
He’s just up there hacking at whatever the pitcher throws. Due to that, he has the second-lowest 28% Ball% against in the league (Rafaela is first).
It’s not necessarily bad to swing a ton, meaning that you can still be a good fantasy player with that trait. In Tovar’s case, it’s a bad thing. His OBP will routinely come in under .300, which kills you in an OBP league - but also hurts in other leagues since the steals don’t come as often if you don’t end up on first with the walk as much as other guys. But it’s a good thing to get a bunch of balls in play in Coors (.327 BABIP overall in Coors games this year).
The somewhat surprising thing with Tovar is how often he has struck out. You would think swinging that much would turn into a ball in play a lot since he’s almost never taking a strike.
8.4% Brl%
.234 xAVG
.287 xwOBA
The kid is 23, so he has all kinds of time to improve in plate discipline. The core tools are there with the power in his bat and the foot speed, so he could develop into a really useful fantasy bat. But for now, you’ll have your high highs and low lows.
Here are your least-lucky hitters of August:
Logan O’Hoppe: .173 wOBA, .296 xwOBA
Brandon Lowe: .277/.349
Nathaniel Lowe: .229/.293
Maikel Garcia: .282/.341
Juan Soto: .409/.465
Ryan McMahon: .239/.285
Jake Cronenworth: .317/.361
Alex Verdugo: .260/.301
J.D. Martinez: .319/.359
Jonathan India: .296/.336
O’Hoppe hasn’t been good, but he hasn’t been not as good as he’s actually been not as good. That’s a good sentence.
I feel like Jonathan India has been one of the sides of this comparison all year.
He was unlucky, and then lucky, and now he’s unlucky again.
Let’s look the plot of someone who has a tight plot right now. Jackson Merrill has a .428 wOBA and a .430 xwOBA in August. Here’s what the plot looks like:
Good for you, man. I think I’d cast my vote for him to be Rookie of the Year.
.293/.324/.492, .817 OPS, 17.9% K%, 4.5% BB%, 19 HR, 14 SB, 66 R, 74 RBI
That puts down my hometown hero Paul Skenes. I just think I give the nod to Merrill because he’s going to 100% of his team’s season. Skenes will be limited down the stretch and will probably come up shy of 150 innings.
Merrill has done something few, and I mean FEW, other hitters are able to do. Debuting at age 21 and immediately handling Major League pitching. Extremely impressive stuff. And we should also mention he’s learned a brand new position along the way!
Great stuff for Merrill, he can consider me a fan of his.
I was thinking more about the Yankees and how I like them yesterday. I cannot believe how I’ve become someone to root for them. I really want to see the Yankees and Dodgers in the World Series; that would be so fun.
17-year-old Jon would be absolutely disgusted.
And now I go to launch the Excel course! Have a sweet day.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jeffrey Springs
2. Logan Gilbert
3. Sean Manaea
4. Spencer Schwellenbach
5. Gavin Williams
6. Aaron Nola
7. Patrick Corbin
8. Dylan Cease
9. Justin Steele
10. Justin Verlander
11. Gerrit Cole
12. Brandon Pfaadt
13. Simeon Woods Richardson
14. Cal Quantrill
15. Yariel Rodriguez
16. Jack Flaherty
17. Johnny Cueto
18. Mitch Spence
19. Brant Hurter
20. Jared Jones
21. Miles Mikolas
22. Tobias Myers
23. Cooper Criswell
24. Cole Irvin
25. Logan Webb
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sean Manaea (vs. ARI): 32.61 Points
2. Logan Gilbert (vs. TB): 31.1 Points
3. Aaron Nola (vs. HOU): 28.75 Points
4. Jeffrey Springs (vs. SEA): 27.45 Points
5. Patrick Corbin (vs. NYY): 27.1 Points
6. Spencer Schwellenbach (vs. MIN): 21.71 Points
7. Justin Steele (vs. PIT): 18.45 Points
8. James McArthur (vs. CLE): 16.5 Points
9. Gavin Williams (vs. KC): 16.25 Points
10. Brant Hurter (vs. LAA): 15.65 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 19 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
2. Sean Manaea (NYM): 17 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 17 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
4. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 16 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
5. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
6. Dylan Cease (SD): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 13 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
8. Gavin Williams (CLE): 12 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
9. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 11 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Sean Manaea (NYM): 58.3 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
2. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 57.7 Strike%, 29.9 Ball%
3. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 57.0 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
4. Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL): 52.8 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
5. Logan Webb (SF): 51.8 Strike%, 33.6 Ball%
6. Brant Hurter (DET): 50.0 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
7. Gavin Williams (CLE): 49.4 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
8. Patrick Corbin (WSH): 48.1 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
9. Aaron Nola (PHI): 48.0 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
10. Tobias Myers (MIL): 47.6 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
11. Miles Mikolas (STL): 47.3 Strike%, 32.3 Ball%
12. Justin Steele (CHC): 46.2 Strike%, 37.6 Ball%
13. Cooper Criswell (BOS): 45.8 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
14. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): 45.1 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
15. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 45.1 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Irvin: 60 Pitches, 13 Outs, 4.62 POUT
2. Aaron Nola: 102 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.86 POUT
3. Cal Quantrill: 86 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.06 POUT
4. Sean Manaea: 103 Pitches, 20 Outs, 5.15 POUT
5. Mitch Spence: 84 Pitches, 16 Outs, 5.25 POUT
6. Yariel Rodriguez: 79 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.27 POUT
7. Jeffrey Springs: 79 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.27 POUT
8. Brant Hurter: 80 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.33 POUT
9. Jordan Montgomery: 70 Pitches, 13 Outs, 5.38 POUT
10. Logan Gilbert: 97 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.39 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Patrick Corbin's FC velo (27 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 87.8
Cooper Criswell's FC velo (16 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.2
Cal Quantrill's FS velo (22 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.1
Miles Mikolas's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.9
Cal Quantrill's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 79.0
Sean Manaea's CH velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.4
Johnny Cueto's CH velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 81.8
Sean Manaea's FF velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 91.4
Simeon Woods Richardson's SL velo (33 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 84.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Cole Irvin's CU usage (36.7%) up 16.2 points
Cole Irvin's SI usage (31.7%) up 13.6 points
Gavin Williams's FC usage (18.1%) up 13.8 points
Gerrit Cole's CU usage (26.4%) up 12.6 points
Jack Flaherty's CU usage (32.3%) up 10.5 points
Johnny Cueto's CH usage (32.5%) up 11.3 points
Logan Webb's SI usage (52.7%) up 11.8 points
Miles Mikolas's FF usage (38.7%) up 12.1 points
Patrick Corbin's FC usage (26.0%) up 17.4 points
Sean Manaea's SI usage (39.8%) up 12.1 points
Tobias Myers's SL usage (32.9%) up 11.6 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Taijuan Walker Split-Finger: +20.1%
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Martin Perez Curveball: +19.6%
Yusei Kikuchi Slider: +17.5%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -17.0%
JP Sears Sweeper: -16.7%
Tanner Gordon Sinker: -16.4%
Bowden Francis Curveball: -16.0%
Gavin Williams Cutter: +15.4%
Tanner Gordon 4-Seam Fastball: +15.1%
Cooper Criswell Sinker: +15.0%
Ronel Blanco Curveball: +14.6%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -13.9%
Aaron Civale Sinker: +13.9%
Cooper Criswell Changeup: -13.8%
Luis Severino Sweeper: +13.6%
Bowden Francis Split-Finger: +13.5%
Gerrit Cole Cutter: -13.4%
Luis L. Ortiz Slider: -13.3%
JP Sears 4-Seam Fastball: +12.9%
Dean Kremer 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Tyler Holton Sinker: +12.5%
Paul Blackburn Sinker: +12.4%
Luis L. Ortiz Sinker: +12.2%
Chris Sale Slider: +12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Michael King - 94 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Michael Wacha - 73 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 72 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Jeffrey Springs - 76 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 93 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 89 TBF, 38.2% K%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 38.2% K%
Bryce Miller - 68 TBF, 36.8% K%
Bowden Francis - 94 TBF, 36.2% K%
Jeffrey Springs - 76 TBF, 35.5% K%
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 35.0% K%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 93 TBF, 34.4% K%
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Paul Skenes - 69 TBF, 33.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Bryce Miller - 68 TBF, 35.3% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 33.8% K-BB%
Bowden Francis - 94 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 30.1% K-BB%
Jeffrey Springs - 76 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Ryne Nelson - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 82 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Spencer Schwellenbach - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cristopher Sanchez - 83 TBF, 64.1% GB%
Jack Kochanowicz - 79 TBF, 63.9% GB%
Andre Pallante - 77 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 87 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Tanner Houck - 106 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Davis Martin - 87 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Brant Hurter - 79 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Max Meyer - 72 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Seth Lugo - 79 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Charlie Morton - 88 TBF, 27.3 K%, 6.8 BB%, 48.2% GB%
Framber Valdez - 68 TBF, 38.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 59.0% GB%
Gavin Stone - 89 TBF, 28.1 K%, 5.6 BB%, 43.1% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 56 TBF, 28.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Justin Steele - 82 TBF, 32.9 K%, 6.1 BB%, 52.0% GB%
Logan Gilbert - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 5.2 BB%, 47.6% GB%
Ryne Nelson - 73 TBF, 30.1 K%, 2.7 BB%, 46.9% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Matt Waldron: 10.5 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Nick Lodolo: 9.75 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
Roddery Munoz: 9.14 ERA, 4.59 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 7.96 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Chris Bassitt: 7.27 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
Kyle Gibson: 6.92 ERA, 3.68 SIERA
Corbin Burnes: 7.24 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 6.75 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Max Meyer: 7.46 ERA, 4.91 SIERA
Jameson Taillon: 6.55 ERA, 4.0 SIERA
Luckiest
Michael Lorenzen: 1.85 ERA, 5.02 SIERA
Valente Bellozo: 2.93 ERA, 5.97 SIERA
David Peterson: 1.71 ERA, 4.43 SIERA
Javier Assad: 2.84 ERA, 4.88 SIERA
Aaron Nola: 2.78 ERA, 4.8 SIERA
Gerrit Cole: 1.93 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
Michael Wacha: 2.25 ERA, 4.23 SIERA
Joey Estes: 3.03 ERA, 4.86 SIERA
Kevin Gausman: 2.84 ERA, 4.65 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.59 ERA, 3.28 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Bryan Woo - +2.6% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Sean Manaea - +3.6% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Brandon Pfaadt - +2.8% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Chris Sale - +2.1% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Bowden Francis - +3.1% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Michael Wacha - +6.9% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Spencer Arrighetti - +2.8% CSW%, -4.6 BB%
Bryce Miller - +4.5% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Framber Valdez - +3.3% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Dane Dunning - +2.0% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +4.8% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Daulton Varsho (TOR) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ezequiel Tovar (COL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Griffin Conine (MIA) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jake Rogers (DET) 3 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Josh Naylor (CLE) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Michael Harris II (ATL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 118.2mph - single
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 114.7mph - nan
Matt Chapman (SF) - 114.5mph - single
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 113.8mph - single
Daulton Varsho (TOR) - 113.7mph - nan
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 113.0mph - double
William Contreras (MIL) - 112.3mph - field_out
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.2mph - double
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 112.0mph - force_out
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.8mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Logan O'Hoppe - 68 PA, 0.139 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, 0.153 Diff
Brandon Lowe - 80 PA, 0.249 wOBA, 0.334 xwOBA, 0.085 Diff
Francisco Alvarez - 55 PA, 0.182 wOBA, 0.259 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Addison Barger - 55 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Jake Cronenworth - 78 PA, 0.301 wOBA, 0.367 xwOBA, 0.066 Diff
Nathaniel Lowe - 70 PA, 0.259 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Max Schuemann - 55 PA, 0.243 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Michael Conforto - 60 PA, 0.292 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Charlie Blackmon - 61 PA, 0.27 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Juan Soto - 90 PA, 0.394 wOBA, 0.453 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Bottom 10
Gavin Sheets - 59 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.131 Diff
Jhonkensy Noel - 57 PA, 0.442 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, -0.095 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 87 PA, 0.461 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Daulton Varsho - 75 PA, 0.39 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Leo Jimenez - 58 PA, 0.41 wOBA, 0.325 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
Tyler Stephenson - 69 PA, 0.435 wOBA, 0.354 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Mark Vientos - 74 PA, 0.402 wOBA, 0.321 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Jake McCarthy - 84 PA, 0.396 wOBA, 0.315 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Tyler Fitzgerald - 81 PA, 0.3 wOBA, 0.22 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Matt Vierling - 60 PA, 0.403 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, -0.08 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Giancarlo Stanton - 66 PA, 43 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 84 PA, 57 BIP, 14 Brls, 24.6 Brl%
Ian Happ - 78 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Jhonkensy Noel - 57 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Kerry Carpenter - 49 PA, 26 BIP, 6 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Jake Burger - 80 PA, 52 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Brandon Marsh - 57 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Jesus Sanchez - 64 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Michael Harris II - 54 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Juan Soto - 90 PA, 61 BIP, 12 Brls, 19.7 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 84 PA, 0.532 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 0.495 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 80 PA, 0.456 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 90 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Joc Pederson - 63 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 81 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Ian Happ - 78 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Jackson Merrill - 78 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Santiago Espinal - 49 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 66 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 86 PA, 155 Swings, 96.1 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 64 PA, 116 Swings, 94.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 90 PA, 137 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Anthony Rendon - 60 PA, 102 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Enrique Hernandez - 53 PA, 100 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 60 PA, 98 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 64 PA, 117 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 52 PA, 93 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
Maikel Garcia - 62 PA, 93 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Cedric Mullins II - 45 PA, 84 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
C.J. Abrams - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Dylan Moore - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Jonny Deluca - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Jose Caballero - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Dansby Swanson - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Luis Robert - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Zach McKinstry - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Altuve - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Xavier Edwards - 14 Attempts (14 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 12 Attempts (12 steals)
Jose Caballero - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
James Wood - 11 Attempts (6 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Luis Robert - 11 Attempts (7 steals)
Tyler Fitzgerald - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Dylan Moore - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Jarren Duran - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Oneil Cruz - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Taylor Walls - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Judge - 84 PA, 16.7 K%, 24.6 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 66 PA, 16.7 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Bobby Witt Jr. - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 19.0 Brl%
Corbin Carroll - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 87 PA, 19.5 K%, 15.4 Brl%
George Springer - 83 PA, 18.1 K%, 18.6 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 78 PA, 12.8 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 63 PA, 19.0 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Juan Soto - 90 PA, 14.4 K%, 19.7 Brl%
Manny Machado - 81 PA, 13.6 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Matt Olson - 88 PA, 18.2 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Ryan O'Hearn - 46 PA, 8.7 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 81 PA, 7.4 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Joc Pederson - 81 PA, +0.13 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 121 PA, +0.122 xwOBA
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 100 PA, +0.118 xwOBA
Jake Burger - 120 PA, +0.113 xwOBA
Joey Bart - 94 PA, +0.101 xwOBA
Ramon Urias - 83 PA, +0.094 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 125 PA, +0.092 xwOBA
Matt Wallner - 91 PA, +0.092 xwOBA
Michael Conforto - 89 PA, +0.084 xwOBA
Ian Happ - 117 PA, +0.082 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Ian Happ - 117 PA, +11.3 Brl%
Jackson Merrill - 105 PA, +10.3 Brl%
Logan O'Hoppe - 94 PA, +8.7 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 81 PA, +8.4 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 121 PA, +7.7 Brl%
Jackson Chourio - 119 PA, +7.5 Brl%
Alex Bregman - 105 PA, +7.2 Brl%
Manny Machado - 111 PA, +7.1 Brl%
Geraldo Perdomo - 110 PA, +7.0 Brl%
George Springer - 115 PA, +6.5 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Joey Bart - 94 PA, +12.0 Cont%
Aaron Judge - 115 PA, +10.9 Cont%
Enrique Hernandez - 85 PA, +10.3 Cont%
William Contreras - 112 PA, +9.9 Cont%
Gleyber Torres - 120 PA, +8.8 Cont%
Matt Wallner - 91 PA, +8.1 Cont%
Ryan O'Hearn - 83 PA, +8.1 Cont%
Shea Langeliers - 87 PA, +7.9 Cont%
Eugenio Suarez - 115 PA, +7.6 Cont%
Parker Meadows - 80 PA, +7.4 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Parker Meadows - 80 PA, -13.1 K%
Pete Crow-Armstrong - 100 PA, -11.9 K%
Cody Bellinger - 105 PA, -11.0 K%
Joey Bart - 94 PA, -10.8 K%
Giancarlo Stanton - 85 PA, -9.5 K%
Jo Adell - 98 PA, -9.3 K%
Ceddanne Rafaela - 103 PA, -8.8 K%
Eugenio Suarez - 115 PA, -8.8 K%
Nick Castellanos - 112 PA, -8.6 K%
Matt Vierling - 94 PA, -8.4 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Willy Adames - +5.6% Contact%, +4.4 mph exit velo, -11.6 Chase%
Jarren Duran - +7.5% Contact%, +7.5 mph exit velo, -7.0 Chase%
Miguel Amaya - +16.7% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -5.2 Chase%
Matt Vierling - +7.2% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -13.7 Chase%
Jared Triolo - +16.1% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -15.2 Chase%
Seth Brown - +10.1% Contact%, +8.6 mph exit velo, -3.7 Chase%
Michael Massey - +7.6% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -10.1 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Aaron Judge - 0.564 xwOBA, 31.6% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Carlos Santana - 0.385 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 78.0% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 18.2% K%
Corbin Carroll - 0.412 xwOBA, 15.8% Brl%, 79.3% Contact%, 21.4% Chase%, 20.0% K%
Francisco Lindor - 0.452 xwOBA, 20.8% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 23.3% Chase%, 18.5% K%
George Springer - 0.381 xwOBA, 23.8% Brl%, 78.1% Contact%, 17.0% Chase%, 16.4% K%
Jonathan India - 0.384 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 82.8% Contact%, 24.6% Chase%, 13.6% K%
Juan Soto - 0.427 xwOBA, 18.9% Brl%, 76.3% Contact%, 19.5% Chase%, 17.5% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Tyler Fitzgerald - 36.2% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.943 Cold Rating
Zack Gelof - 35.5% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating
Zach Neto - 32.2% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Paul Goldschmidt - 29.4% Whiff%, 84.6% Weak%, 0.866 Cold Rating
Julio Rodriguez - 31.3% Whiff%, 74.2% Weak%, 0.866 Cold Rating
Dansby Swanson - 30.5% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating
Christopher Morel - 39.4% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Jackson Holliday - 30.2% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Andres Gimenez - 28.8% Whiff%, 81.1% Weak%, 0.846 Cold Rating
Jeremy Pena - 33.3% Whiff%, 68.6% Weak%, 0.824 Cold Rating
Minor League Reports
Top Minor League Hitting Performances - Yesterday
Dalton Rushing (LAD): 3/5, 3R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 39FPts
Luisangel Acuna (NYM): 4/5, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 2SB, 37FPts
Mark Payton (CWS): 2/4, 4R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 33FPts
Jimmy Herron (COL): 3/4, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 1SB, 31FPts
Brandon Lockridge (SD): 4/4, 2R, 0HR, 1RBI, 2SB, 28FPts
Jared Oliva (SEA): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 28FPts
Quincy Hamilton (HOU): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 27FPts
Raynel Delgado (CLE): 2/3, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 27FPts
Dru Baker (TB): 3/3, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1SB, 27FPts
Heriberto Hernandez (TB): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0SB, 26FPts
Top Minor League Pitching Performances - Yesterday
Pat Monteverde (MIA): 0 Pitches, 7IP, 2H, 0ER, 10K, 0BB, 38FPts
Justin Armbruester (BAL): 97 Pitches, 6IP, 3H, 1ER, 12K, 1BB, 37FPts
Yilber Diaz (ARI): 90 Pitches, 6IP, 4H, 1ER, 13K, 0BB, 36FPts
Kai-Wei Teng (SF): 77 Pitches, 6IP, 1H, 0ER, 7K, 0BB, 30FPts
Antonio Santos (CHC): 89 Pitches, 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB, 28FPts
Carlos Pena (DET): 81 Pitches, 6IP, 1H, 0ER, 6K, 1BB, 28FPts
Trey Dombroski (HOU): 71 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 0ER, 7K, 2BB, 26FPts
Nick Dombkowski (PIT): 66 Pitches, 5IP, 2H, 1ER, 8K, 0BB, 24FPts
A.J. Blubaugh (HOU): 92 Pitches, 5IP, 5H, 1ER, 7K, 2BB, 23FPts
Richard Fitts (BOS): 71 Pitches, 6IP, 5H, 2ER, 6K, 0BB, 22FPts
AA-AAA OPS Leaders
Deyvison De Los Santos (AAA - MIA) 484 PA 0.966 OPS
Coby Mayo (AAA - BAL) 369 PA 0.946 OPS
Keston Hiura (AAA - LAA) 364 PA 0.943 OPS
Jason Vosler (AAA - SEA) 455 PA 0.936 OPS
Dalton Rushing (AAA - LAD) 416 PA 0.928 OPS
Kyle Manzardo (AAA - CLE) 350 PA 0.927 OPS
Nick Allen (AAA - OAK) 379 PA 0.927 OPS
Jimmy Crooks III (AA - STL) 353 PA 0.914 OPS
Cal Stevenson (AAA - PHI) 366 PA 0.913 OPS
Willie MacIver (AAA - COL) 332 PA 0.912 OPS
CJ Alexander (AAA - KC) 349 PA 0.906 OPS
Jordan Diaz (AAA - OAK) 405 PA 0.902 OPS
Pedro Leon (AAA - HOU) 455 PA 0.902 OPS
Colby Thomas (AAA - OAK) 480 PA 0.897 OPS
Gustavo Campero (AAA - LAA) 402 PA 0.892 OPS
Carson Taylor (AA - PHI) 394 PA 0.888 OPS
Tirso Ornelas (AAA - SD) 455 PA 0.888 OPS
Roman Anthony (AAA - BOS) 437 PA 0.886 OPS
Johnathan Rodriguez (AAA - CLE) 407 PA 0.884 OPS
Ryan Ward (AAA - LAD) 430 PA 0.882 OPS
AA-AAA Pitching K-BB% Leaders
Brandon Young (AAA - BAL) 90 IP 23.2% K-BB
Shane Smith (AA - MIL) 84 IP 22.8% K-BB
Yilber Diaz (AAA - ARI) 98 IP 22.7% K-BB
Bubba Chandler (AAA - PIT) 98 IP 22.4% K-BB
Thomas Harrington (AAA - PIT) 91 IP 21.9% K-BB
Ian Seymour (AAA - TB) 123 IP 21.8% K-BB
Aaron Brown - 676345 (AA - HOU) 92 IP 21.3% K-BB
Robinson Pina (AAA - PHI) 110 IP 20.9% K-BB
Brady Basso (AAA - OAK) 88 IP 20.8% K-BB
Troy Melton (AA - DET) 98 IP 20.7% K-BB
Tyler Stuart (AAA - WSH) 113 IP 20.5% K-BB
Noah Cameron (AAA - KC) 105 IP 20.4% K-BB
Caden Dana (AA - LAA) 135 IP 20.1% K-BB
Carson Palmquist (AAA - COL) 102 IP 19.9% K-BB
Chayce McDermott (AAA - BAL) 97 IP 19.3% K-BB
Rhett Lowder (AAA - CIN) 83 IP 19.1% K-BB
Mason Barnett (AA - OAK) 113 IP 18.9% K-BB
Alex Pham (AA - BAL) 106 IP 18.9% K-BB
Drew Parrish (AA - ATL) 104 IP 18.7% K-BB
Carson Ragsdale (AAA - SF) 109 IP 18.5% K-BB
Schedules & Streamers
Toughest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
CHC - 112.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
TB - 110.4 Opposing SP Stuff+
PHI - 106.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
LAA - 106.1 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIN - 105.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
Softest Upcoming Hitter Schedules - Next 7 Days
PIT - 78.5 Opposing SP Stuff+
MIL - 83.8 Opposing SP Stuff+
SEA - 88.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
HOU - 91.3 Opposing SP Stuff+
CLE - 91.7 Opposing SP Stuff+
Today's SP Streamer Picks
Spencer Arrighetti (46.0% Owned): Projected 5.38IP 2.55ER 6.18SO 2.44BB 16.21FPts
David Festa (12.0% Owned): Projected 5.01IP 2.38ER 5.38SO 1.67BB 14.29FPts
Jack Leiter (9.0% Owned): Projected 5.52IP 2.48ER 4.81SO 1.9BB 13.87FPts
OPS Leaders - Last 2 Weeks - LOW OWNED HITTERS
Miguel Amaya - 30 PA, 1.355 OPS
Matt Wallner - 34 PA, 1.248 OPS
Trevor Larnach - 30 PA, 1.192 OPS
MJ Melendez - 31 PA, 1.12 OPS
Joey Loperfido - 35 PA, 1.099 OPS
Ramon Urias - 30 PA, 1.098 OPS
Connor Norby - 35 PA, 1.088 OPS
Parker Meadows - 38 PA, 1.052 OPS
Jesus Sanchez - 29 PA, 1.039 OPS
Matt Vierling - 31 PA, 1.012 OPS
Today's Hitter Streamer Picks
Connor Norby 2B (8.0% Owned): Projected 0.79R 0.18HR 0.58RBI 0.95SO 0.33BB 0.09SB 9.17FPts
Spencer Horwitz 1B (13.0% Owned): Projected 0.66R 0.14HR 0.76RBI 0.81SO 0.48BB 0.05SB 8.95FPts
Charlie Blackmon RF (6.0% Owned): Projected 0.81R 0.15HR 0.59RBI 0.67SO 0.39BB 0.06SB 8.82FPts
Michael Toglia RF (33.0% Owned): Projected 0.72R 0.24HR 0.73RBI 1.13SO 0.37BB 0.05SB 8.8FPts
Otto Lopez SS (2.0% Owned): Projected 0.61R 0.12HR 0.73RBI 0.58SO 0.19BB 0.13SB 8.73FPts
Nolan Jones 3B (46.0% Owned): Projected 0.7R 0.18HR 0.66RBI 1.02SO 0.44BB 0.09SB 8.71FPts
David Hamilton SS (26.0% Owned): Projected 0.67R 0.08HR 0.54RBI 1.02SO 0.34BB 0.34SB 8.71FPts
TJ Friedl LF (40.0% Owned): Projected 0.64R 0.1HR 0.72RBI 0.68SO 0.43BB 0.17SB 8.61FPts
Lawrence Butler OF (39.0% Owned): Projected 0.69R 0.19HR 0.48RBI 1.37SO 0.39BB 0.13SB 8.48FPts
Brendan Rodgers 2B (23.0% Owned): Projected 0.64R 0.14HR 0.77RBI 0.75SO 0.26BB 0.03SB 8.38FPts
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