MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Daily Notes - August 31st

A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.

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Jon A
Aug 31, 2023
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Pitchers - Yesterday

Good pitchers were good yesterday!

Jesus Luzardo landed strikes (54.2% Strike%) and that took him to a great line with six scoreless innings and eight strikeouts. For as up-and-down as he’s been this year, the K-BB% sits above 21%, which is fantastic ratio. For the year, his walk rate is just 7%, so no doubt it’s been a positive year for Luzardo and he’s firmly established as a quite good starting pitcher.


Brandon Woodruff has made five starts since returning from injury

5 GS, 3.35 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 33.6% K%, 6.4% BB%

That’s a 37:7 K:BB ratio, which is some of his best work. The pitch mix since he returned:

Great stuff all around. A really great four-seamer and tons of good pitches behind it. He’s likely going right back in my top five for 2024.


Hunter Greene also showed us signs of life yesterday after two bad outings after his IL stint.

90 pitches, 12 whiffs, 13.3% SwStr%, 56.7% Strike%, 6:1 K:BB

He couldn’t quite get through six innings, so he was less than efficient - but he kept the ball in the yard and had much better command.


Braves rookie Darius Vines delivered a Coors quality start in his debut. He had a pretty good 13.4% SwStr% and a 5:1 K:BB in six innings (82 pitches). The Rockies are just pathetic right now, but this is impressive stuff in Coors Field.

This guy didn’t have very good numbers in the minors, so I don’t think he’s really worth considering for fantasy purposes - but I felt it worth a mention here.


The Pirates’ Andre Jackson had another good start and now he’s done this as a starter for the Bucs:

19.2 IP, 24.4 K%, 8.5% BB%, 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Nothing fantastic, but a serviceable starter, and I would say a streaming option from here on.


Dylan Cease gave up five more runs but got a lot of swing and miss:

109 pitches, 19 whiffs, 17.4% SwStr%, 45.9% Strike%, 40.4% Ball%

The ball rate is awful and he walked three. He’s been really bad this year, but there is some good in the profile:

14.3% SwStr%, 26.6% K%, 44.1 PA/HR

So he’s getting a lot of whiffs and a good amount of strikeouts, but he just doesn’t have much command of the ball and he doesn’t get ground balls:

38.3% Ball%, 10.4% BB%, 37% GB%

He’s allowed a .337 BABIP, which is the fourth-highest in the league among SPs with 20+ GS

  1. Flaherty .343

  2. Megill .342

  3. Brown .341

  4. Cease .337

  5. Gausman .336

  6. Weaver .334

  7. Singer .323

  8. Detmers .320

  9. Anderson .319

  10. Cobb .319

So I would say he doesn’t quite deserve his 4.98 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, but clearly, the guy just doesn’t have enough command to really be great.

Someone in my home league dropped him and I picked him up, but I’m not sure I should have. The playoffs are coming up and he has some nice matchups in week one, so I have some decisions to make!


Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday

1. Jesus Luzardo (vs. TB): 27.7 Points
2. Andre Jackson (vs. KC): 26.36 Points
3. Chris Bassitt (vs. WSH): 25.6 Points
4. Hunter Greene (vs. SF): 25.59 Points
5. Gerrit Cole (vs. DET): 23.9 Points
6. Brandon Woodruff (vs. CHC): 23.7 Points
7. Sonny Gray (vs. CLE): 23.35 Points
8. Kyle Hendricks (vs. MIL): 21.9 Points
9. Framber Valdez (vs. BOS): 20.5 Points
10. Darius Vines (vs. COL): 20.5 Points

Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday

1. Dylan Cease (CWS): 19 Whiffs (109 Pitches)
2. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 19 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
3. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 16 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
4. Bryce Miller (SEA): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
5. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 13 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
6. Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 13 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
7. Hunter Greene (CIN): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Reid Detmers (LAA): 12 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
9. Denyi Reyes (NYM): 11 Whiffs (78 Pitches)
10. Darius Vines (ATL): 11 Whiffs (82 Pitches)

Strike% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Hunter Greene (CIN): 56.7 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
2. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 54.2 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
3. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 54.2 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
4. Zach Neal (OAK): 51.8 Strike%, 34.9 Ball%
5. Andre Jackson (PIT): 50.0 Strike%, 37.2 Ball%
6. Reid Detmers (LAA): 50.0 Strike%, 36.9 Ball%
7. Logan Webb (SF): 50.0 Strike%, 30.9 Ball%
8. Joey Wentz (DET): 49.0 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
9. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI): 48.9 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
10. Miles Mikolas (STL): 48.0 Strike%, 30.6 Ball%
11. Garrett Whitlock (BOS): 48.0 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
12. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 47.8 Strike%, 41.1 Ball%
13. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 47.8 Strike%, 37.0 Ball%
14. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 47.6 Strike%, 35.7 Ball%
15. Framber Valdez (HOU): 47.0 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%

Pitcher/Pitch Trends

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Kyle Freeland's SI velo (28 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 90.9
Kyle Freeland's CU velo (15 pitches) UP 2.4mph to 82.7
Kyle Freeland's FF velo (19 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 91.0
Garrett Whitlock's ST velo (18 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 81.6
Dylan Cease's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.0
Kyle Freeland's SL velo (31 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 85.4
Denyi Reyes's FF velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 90.7
Miles Mikolas's SL velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 84.7
Denyi Reyes's FC velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 85.1
Hunter Greene's SL velo (45 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 85.7
Rich Hill's FC velo (21 pitches) DOWN -4.7mph to 78.6

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Angel Zerpa's SI usage (26.2%) up 10.2 points
Bryce Miller's SI usage (16.1%) up 11.0 points
Chris Bassitt's CU usage (22.7%) up 11.1 points
Framber Valdez's CH usage (30.1%) up 15.4 points
Garrett Whitlock's ST usage (36.0%) up 13.3 points
Hunter Greene's SL usage (50.0%) up 11.6 points
Kyle Hendricks's CH usage (52.0%) up 13.8 points
Miles Mikolas's CU usage (33.7%) up 14.3 points
Patrick Corbin's SI usage (59.4%) up 17.7 points
Reid Detmers's FF usage (56.0%) up 13.2 points
Rich Hill's FC usage (39.6%) up 22.5 points
Sonny Gray's ST usage (32.1%) up 12.6 points
Zach Neal's CH usage (26.5%) up 10.1 points

Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts

Tanner Houck Sinker: +22.9%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +22.8%
Bailey Falter Slider: +19.7%
Jon Gray Slider: +19.4%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +17.8%
Bryce Miller 4-Seam Fastball: -16.7%
Bailey Falter 4-Seam Fastball: -16.4%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -16.1%
J.P. France Curveball: +16.0%
Framber Valdez Changeup: +15.6%
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +15.5%
Adam Wainwright 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Bryce Miller Sinker: +15.2%
Noah Syndergaard Cutter: -15.0%
Lance Lynn Cutter: -14.4%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -14.1%
Chris Sale Slider: +13.1%
Jordan Lyles Changeup: +13.1%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -13.0%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: +13.0%
Dakota Hudson Slider: +12.9%
Gavin Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.9%
Noah Syndergaard Slider: +12.7%
Trevor Williams 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Charlie Morton Cutter: +12.7%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +12.5%
Adam Wainwright Sinker: -12.3%
JP Sears Slider: +12.3%
Jordan Lyles 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Patrick Sandoval Sinker: +12.2%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +12.2%
Gavin Williams Slider: +12.1%

Pitchers - Recent Leaders

Bobby Miller’s rookie year now looks like this:

4.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 12.0% SwStr%, 46.7% Strike%, 35.3% Ball%, 21.7% K%, 6.9% BB%

Pretty much a league-average pitcher right now, but I would imagine he will make a step forward next year given the stuff he has (150 Stuff+).

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Julio Urias - 77 TBF, 38.4% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 72 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 69 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 103 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Reese Olson - 81 TBF, 33.5% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Freddy Peralta - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 35.8% K%
Reese Olson - 81 TBF, 34.6% K%
Charlie Morton - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Julio Urias - 77 TBF, 33.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Andrew Abbott - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 31.4% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Julio Urias - 77 TBF, 32.5% K-BB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 69 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 75 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 60.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 94 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Bobby Miller - 72 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 74 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Alex Cobb - 101 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 106 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 55.8% GB%
David Peterson - 69 TBF, 55.0% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 69 TBF, 54.2% GB%

Garrett Whitlock since he’s come back from the IL and into a long relief role:

11 IP, 14.4% SwStr%, 28.8% K%, 7.7.% BB%

He’s given up homers (12.5% Brl%, .363 xwOBA) and has had some bad luck (.414 BABIP), but overall he’s really impressive to me - and I hope he gets back into the rotation next year.

Mitch Keller is also below as he’s had a very good three-start stretch

20 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 25 K, 5 BB, 0 HR, 31.6% K%, 6.3% BB%

He might be worth a look if he’s available, as he’s getting back a little bit of that early-season juice.


Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Aaron Nola - 93 TBF, 29.0 K%, 7.5 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Cole Ragans - 95 TBF, 35.8 K%, 7.4 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Garrett Whitlock - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 29.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.2% GB%
Hunter Brown - 70 TBF, 31.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Ian Hamilton - 54 TBF, 31.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 61.3% GB%
Justin Steele - 95 TBF, 29.5 K%, 3.2 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 70 TBF, 32.9 K%, 4.3 BB%, 55.8% GB%
Michael King - 55 TBF, 29.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 48.6% GB%
Mitch Keller - 79 TBF, 31.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 95 TBF, 27.4 K%, 6.3 BB%, 54.8% GB%
Tristan Beck - 55 TBF, 27.3 K%, 7.3 BB%, 50.0% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Aaron Civale - +2.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Mitch Keller - +6.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Julio Urias - +7.9% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Jordan Montgomery - +2.7% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Luis Severino - +2.6% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +5.9% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Chris Flexen - +3.8% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Griffin Canning - +5.1% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Adrian Houser - +8.0% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Jhony Brito - +5.1% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +6.1% CSW%, -2.2 BB%

Hitters

Trea Turner is just smashing

He has 33 barrels this year, here’s how that has broken down by month:

April: 3
May: 7
June: 7
July: 3
Aug: 13


And how about Marcell Ozuna this year.

68 R, 31 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB, .269

He’s the #21 player on the roto player rater and the #14 outfielder. Over the last 30 days, he’s #5, here’s that top 10:

  1. Betts

  2. Rodriguez

  3. Harper

  4. Witt Jr.

  5. Ozuna

  6. Acuna Jr.

  7. Bellinger

  8. Tucker

  9. Turner

  10. Seager


Adam Duvall is also crushing in August. There are 13 players in August with 100+ PA and an OPS above 1.000:

  1. Betts 1.268

  2. Harper 1.226

  3. Rodriguez 1.188

  4. Ozuna 1.140

  5. Seager 1.070

  6. Carpenter 1.067

  7. T Hernandez 1.050

  8. Duvall 1.045

  9. Turner 1.043

  10. Torres 1.040

  11. Freeman 1.027

  12. Garver 1.018

  13. Witt Jr. 1.004


Multiple Barrels

Trea Turner (PHI) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

New Max Launch Velos

Garrett Stubbs, Yesterday: 109.6 Previous High: 104.9

Hardest Hit Balls

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 113.3mph - field_out
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 112.2mph - home_run
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 112.1mph - single
Nolan Jones (COL) - 111.9mph - double
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.8mph - double
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 111.1mph - home_run
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) - 110.9mph - foul
Jake Burger (MIA) - 110.6mph - field_out
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL) - 110.3mph - foul
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.3mph - single

Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison

Top 10
Harrison Bader - 62 PA, 0.165 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, 0.112 Diff
Alec Bohm - 81 PA, 0.317 wOBA, 0.41 xwOBA, 0.093 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 67 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, 0.087 Diff
Juan Soto - 82 PA, 0.295 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, 0.086 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 77 PA, 0.305 wOBA, 0.389 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 82 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.389 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 95 PA, 0.366 wOBA, 0.448 xwOBA, 0.082 Diff
Trent Grisham - 58 PA, 0.209 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Jon Singleton - 60 PA, 0.304 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.074 Diff
Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 0.253 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Bottom 10
Julio Rodriguez - 76 PA, 0.562 wOBA, 0.426 xwOBA, -0.136 Diff
Adam Duvall - 76 PA, 0.515 wOBA, 0.39 xwOBA, -0.125 Diff
Trea Turner - 80 PA, 0.498 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, -0.121 Diff
Kerry Carpenter - 74 PA, 0.456 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Jose Altuve - 94 PA, 0.433 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, -0.111 Diff
Anthony Santander - 64 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Bryce Harper - 73 PA, 0.564 wOBA, 0.465 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Nolan Jones - 76 PA, 0.354 wOBA, 0.255 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Ezequiel Duran - 68 PA, 0.342 wOBA, 0.249 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 85 PA, 0.419 wOBA, 0.327 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff

August Barrels Leaders

  1. Harper 17

  2. Torkelson 16

  3. Betts 15

  4. Ozuna 15

  5. Ohtani 14

  6. Acuna Jr. 14

  7. T Turner 13

  8. Tucker 13

  9. Judge 13

Brl% vs. K% since 7/1

That dot on the far right is Ohtani.


Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Spencer Torkelson - 79 PA, 46 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.9 Brl%
D.J. Stewart - 60 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 73 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 59 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Daniel Vogelbach - 59 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 58 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 84 PA, 61 BIP, 13 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Luis Robert - 58 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 72 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Marcell Ozuna - 84 PA, 0.493 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 75 PA, 0.477 xwOBA
Bryce Harper - 73 PA, 0.465 xwOBA
Eddie Rosario - 60 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 95 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Max Kepler - 67 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Julio Rodriguez - 76 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 83 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
D.J. Stewart - 60 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 84 PA, 0.416 xwOBA


Luis Arraez Batting Average by Month

April: .438
May: .330
June: .406
July: .354
Aug: .229

Pretty wild stuff there for Arraez, especially given that his K% and GB% have stayed pretty much exactly the same this month. Baseball is a funny game!


Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 119 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Ha-Seong Kim - 84 PA, 135 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 71 PA, 140 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 64 PA, 114 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Ty France - 84 PA, 138 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Tommy Edman - 78 PA, 124 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 87 PA, 171 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 73 PA, 111 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Brice Turang - 63 PA, 109 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Pablo Reyes - 63 PA, 101 Swings, 87.1 Cont%

Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Randy Arozarena - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Noelvi Marte - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Michael Harris II - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Geraldo Perdomo - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Gunnar Henderson - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
George Springer - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Jose Caballero - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Harrison Bader - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Will Brennan - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Tommy Pham - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Christian Yelich - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Matt McLain - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Kyle Tucker - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Rafael Ortega - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Ryan McKenna - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Dylan Moore - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Tommy Edman - 3 Attempts (3 steals)

Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders

Julio Rodriguez - 15 Attempts (11 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 14 Attempts (13 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
TJ Friedl - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Jose Caballero - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Maikel Garcia - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jose Ramirez - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Michael Harris II - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Chris Taylor - 8 Attempts (7 steals)

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