MLB Daily Notes: Friday, August 26
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
I’m watching this Joe Rogan interview with Mark Zuckerberg. Very interesting guy. His whole life’s work right now is making virtual reality better, which I can criticize - I think people need to be less online rather than more - but he at least seems to understand the importance of human connection and relationships a little bit. I think the whole ordeal of VR and remote work and stuff will have some pretty nasty consequences for us in addition to the benefits, so that’s a pretty crazy and interesting shift we’re undertaking right now (as I type this from my basement).
The interview did remind me of this amazing clip though:
Nothing better than the old dusty politician trying to figure out new technology.
Giancarlo Stanton came back and was cleared pissed that Oneil Cruz took his exit velocity glory, and he laced two balls above 116 miles per hour, but he still couldn’t get near the new record of 122.4. I bet Stanton hasn’t slept much since Wednesday.
Aaron Nola was the man of the night throwing a complete game shutout against the Reds. He was incredible with a 39.6% CSW% and needed just 101 pitches to get his 27 outs. That’s a day after George Kirby threw 24 straight pitches for strikes to start the game, so I want to look at some ZONE RATE stuff.
Top Zone Rates, 1500+ Pitches Thrown
George Kirby 57.6%
Yu Darvish 54.9%
Julio Urias 53.7%
Dylan Bundy 53.7%
Brady Singer 53.7%
Chris Bassitt 53.3%
Sean Manaea 53.3%
Kyle Wright 53.1%
Framber Valdez 52.9%
Joe Ryan 52.9%
Nola is at number 20 with a rate of 51.7%. That’s actually lower than I expected given his sick 3.2% BB% on the year.
So which pitchers are more effective when throwing pitches in the strike zone? You can get this data by selecting this on the dashboard:
Top In-Zone SwStr%
Spencer Strider 18.7%
Shane McClanahan 17.8%
Dylan Cease 17.6%
Robbie Ray 17.0%
Cristian Javier 16.9%
Hunter Greene 16.3%
Gerrit Cole 16.0%
Shohei Ohtani 28.9%
Carlos Rodon 15.6%
Brandon Woodruff 15.5%
Lowest In-Zone xwOBA
Cristian Javier .225
Spencer Strider .250
Carlos Rodon .252
Martin Perez .260
Nestor Cortes .263
Dylan Cease .264
Shane McClanahan .265
Chris Bassitt .265
George Kirby .266
Aaron Nola .268
Here is the arsenal breakdown for Nola on the year:
One of the few guys throwing four pitches above 15% usage, but he has moreso focused on the four-seamer and curveball this year, but he’s been pretty fluid with his arsenal year to year.
deGrom led the slate in SwStr% at 19.5%, not surprisingly. That mark brought his season SwStr% down substantially from 25.2% to 23.9%. His K% is now 45.7%. It really brings into question what’s the highest a pitcher could possibly go. Is it possible to strike out 40%+ of the batters you face over a full sample? I guess Gerrit Cole pretty much proved you could in 2019 with a 39.9% K% over 212.1 innings, what an absolutely ridiculous season that was for him. I miss the spider tack. #BringBackTheTack
JT Brubaker didn’t pitch yesterday but it’s interesting that he’s a Magic Formula Qualifier now. He gave up six runs against the Braves this week, but over the last five starts, he has a really nice line of 26.3% K%, 4.2% BB%, and 49.4% GB%.
There are a bunch of interesting names on the hitter MFQ below
Andrew Vaughn
Emmanuel Rivera
Nick Gordon
Jesse Winker
and Lars Nootbaar continues to show up everywhere. If this guy isn’t universally owned yet we’re doing stuff wrong. Over the last two months, Nootbaar is hitting .287/.416/.541 with six homers, a 13.0% Brl%, a 16.2% K%, and an 18% BB%. What more can the guy do? He’s been one of the best hitters in the entire league over that time, in fact, he’s #7 on the JA ranks since 6/25. Go get that guy already!
The NFL product kicked off last night as my new writer, John Carlson, put out a Best Ball strategy article. He’s working on a second one as well. John C will be writing DFS articles for premium subs this NFL season since I’m not a huge NFL DFS player and didn’t want to do it myself. So hopefully he’s not trash! He’ll have stuff for most
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Here’s the rest of the MLB report for today.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola (PHI): 15.8 SwStr%, 39.6 CSW%
2. Jacob deGrom (NYM): 19.5 SwStr%, 39.1 CSW%
3. Justin Dunn (CIN): 12.0 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
4. Lance Lynn (CWS): 15.0 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
5. Marco Gonzales (SEA): 8.9 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
6. Luis Garcia (HOU): 12.5 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
7. Norge Ruiz (OAK): 17.6 SwStr%, 29.4 CSW%
8. Kevin Gausman (TOR): 17.0 SwStr%, 28.4 CSW%
9. Dakota Hudson (STL): 12.4 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%
10. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 11.1 SwStr%, 26.7 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Aaron Nola - 9.0 IP - 103.5 JA Points
2. Jacob deGrom - 6.0 IP - 76.25 JA Points
3. Lance Lynn - 5.67 IP - 61.0 JA Points
4. Kevin Gausman - 4.67 IP - 58.0 JA Points
5. Drew Rasmussen - 5.33 IP - 49.0 JA Points
6. Marco Gonzales - 5.67 IP - 44.0 JA Points
7. Dakota Hudson - 7.0 IP - 41.5 JA Points
8. Justin Dunn - 6.0 IP - 40.5 JA Points
9. Patrick Sandoval - 6.0 IP - 37.5 JA Points
10. Lucas Luetge - 2.67 IP - 35.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 15 GS - 56.34 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 25 GS - 52.25 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24 GS - 51.93 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 21 GS - 50.44 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 25 GS - 49.6 JA Points
6. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 25 GS - 49.46 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 25 GS - 48.4 JA Points
8. Blake Snell (SD) - 17 GS - 46.3 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 18 GS - 46.08 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 19 GS - 44.67 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kevin Gausman's FF velo (42 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 93.5
Luis Garcia's CU velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 75.9
Patrick Sandoval's CH velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 82.3
Triston McKenzie's SL velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 86.0
Lance Lynn's CU velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 81.2
Drew Rasmussen's FC velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 89.0
Dakota Hudson's SL velo (30 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 85.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Drew Rasmussen's CU usage (14.4%) up 10.4 points
James Kaprielian's FF usage (65.1%) up 11.5 points
Ryan Feltner's SI usage (23.9%) up 10.3 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Drew Smyly - 93 TBF, 40.3% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 95 TBF, 38.6% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 86 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
JT Brubaker - 94 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Matt Manning - 101 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 110 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 99 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 86 TBF, 46.5% K%
Justin Steele - 88 TBF, 37.5% K%
Andrew Heaney - 79 TBF, 35.4% K%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0% K%
Robbie Ray - 101 TBF, 33.7% K%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 33.3% K%
Blake Snell - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Carlos Rodon - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Drew Rasmussen - 79 TBF, 32.9% K%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 30.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 86 TBF, 44.2% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 88 TBF, 33.0% K-BB%
Andrew Heaney - 79 TBF, 31.6% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 94 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Drew Rasmussen - 79 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 88 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
George Kirby - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 95 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 110 TBF, 72.2% GB%
Logan Webb - 105 TBF, 68.5% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 98 TBF, 65.8% GB%
Dane Dunning - 91 TBF, 64.1% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 101 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 80 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 90 TBF, 61.3% GB%
Shane Bieber - 81 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Max Fried - 80 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Drew Rasmussen - 79 TBF, 32.9 K%, 2.5 BB%, 45.1% GB%
George Kirby - 101 TBF, 28.7 K%, 2.0 BB%, 47.1% GB%
JT Brubaker - 94 TBF, 28.7 K%, 5.3 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Justin Verlander - 72 TBF, 29.2 K%, 2.8 BB%, 46.9% GB%
Kyle Wright - 72 TBF, 27.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 55.1% GB%
Sonny Gray - 66 TBF, 31.8 K%, 6.1 BB%, 46.3% GB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 34.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Matt Manning - +6.8% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.4% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
JT Brubaker - +3.8% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Zac Gallen - +3.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Max Fried - +3.4% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Corey Kluber - +2.4% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Charlie Morton - +3.5% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Dean Kremer - +6.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Jakob Junis - +5.5% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Drew Hutchison - +2.0% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Michael Wacha - +6.8% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Ross Stripling - +5.8% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Andrew Vaughn (CWS) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Danny Jansen (TOR) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Paul Goldschmidt - 5.0 PA - 63.0 JA Points
2. George Springer - 6.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
3. Anthony Santander - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Danny Jansen - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
5. Jose Altuve - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
6. Josh Donaldson - 6.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
7. Giancarlo Stanton - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
9. Ian Happ - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
10. Andrew Vaughn - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Juan Soto (SD) - 513.0 PA - 136.84 JA Points
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 438.0 PA - 136.8 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 526.0 PA - 134.68 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 515.0 PA - 115.03 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 541.0 PA - 112.68 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 414.0 PA - 107.83 JA Points
7. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 513.0 PA - 97.0 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 440.0 PA - 96.82 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 460.0 PA - 95.13 JA Points
10. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 506.0 PA - 93.28 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 117.7mph - single
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 116.5mph - field_out
George Springer (TOR) - 113.0mph - single
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 113.0mph - single
Bobby Dalbec (BOS) - 111.9mph - foul
Bo Bichette (TOR) - 111.2mph - single
Seth Brown (OAK) - 111.2mph - single
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 110.7mph - double
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 110.4mph - home_run
Jose Rojas (LAA) - 110.3mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 64 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Michael Massey - 64 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Nick Pratto - 56 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 62 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 72 PA, 41 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.1 Brl%
Emmanuel Rivera - 63 PA, 41 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.1 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 66 PA, 47 BIP, 8 Brls, 17.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 47 BIP, 8 Brls, 17.0 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 62 PA, 36 BIP, 6 Brls, 16.7 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Paul Goldschmidt - 85 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Vinnie Pasquantino - 63 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 71 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Alex Bregman - 81 PA, 0.422 xwOBA
Christian Walker - 80 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 89 PA, 0.408 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 85 PA, 0.408 xwOBA
Rowdy Tellez - 62 PA, 0.408 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 76 PA, 130 Swings, 96.2 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 66 PA, 120 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 62 PA, 109 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 74 PA, 132 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 78 PA, 129 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 75 PA, 112 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 61 PA, 99 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 56 PA, 106 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 66 PA, 112 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Ketel Marte - 53 PA, 89 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Andrew Vaughn - 74 PA, 17.6 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Emmanuel Rivera - 63 PA, 19.0 K%, 17.1 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 59 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
MJ Melendez - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 16.0 Brl%
Matt Olson - 89 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.9 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 51 PA, 15.7 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 85 PA, 17.6 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Rhys Hoskins - 90 PA, 20.0 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 82 PA, 11.0 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Lars Nootbaar - +5.5% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -7.2 Chase%
Matt Olson - +8.7% Contact%, +6.8 mph exit velo, -5.5 Chase%
Brendan Rodgers - +4.7% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -13.6 Chase%
Isaac Paredes - +5.5% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -11.8 Chase%
Eloy Jimenez - +6.8% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -11.2 Chase%
Brendan Donovan - +4.1% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -5.1 Chase%
Taylor Walls - +8.0% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -5.2 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman - 0.424 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 81.4% Contact%, 17.7% Chase%, 8.3% K%
Christian Walker - 0.44 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 76.7% Contact%, 23.4% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Corey Seager - 0.39 xwOBA, 10.6% Brl%, 78.4% Contact%, 23.0% Chase%, 14.8% K%
Jake Fraley - 0.408 xwOBA, 15.2% Brl%, 81.5% Contact%, 18.9% Chase%, 18.4% K%
Jose Altuve - 0.398 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 81.8% Contact%, 22.8% Chase%, 12.7% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.385 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 76.6% Contact%, 20.1% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Matt Olson - 0.438 xwOBA, 18.8% Brl%, 80.5% Contact%, 23.0% Chase%, 16.1% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.434 xwOBA, 17.8% Brl%, 76.9% Contact%, 22.1% Chase%, 18.8% K%
Sean Murphy - 0.415 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 79.6% Contact%, 22.7% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Oneil Cruz - 46.8% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.99 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 35.0% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.912 Cold Rating
Paul DeJong - 43.8% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.87 Cold Rating
Seth Brown - 30.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.868 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 40.2% Whiff%, 68.2% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating
Dylan Carlson - 31.1% Whiff%, 71.9% Weak%, 0.862 Cold Rating
Aaron Judge - 34.0% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.841 Cold Rating
Ryan Mountcastle - 33.7% Whiff%, 68.6% Weak%, 0.833 Cold Rating
Aristides Aquino - 39.3% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.827 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 29.4% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.825 Cold Rating
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