MLB Daily Notes: Friday, August 5
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
First things first, this DFS slate tonight is dope so I’m running a 25-person contest on DraftKings. It would be awesome if we could fill it up, so if you have $5 in your DK account and want to take a crack at a decent payout, join here:
Alternatively, reply to the tweet or DM me with your username and I’ll invite.
Pitcher Notes
Joe Musgrove went for a high CSW% but gave up six earned runs in his first start after the big contract extension. Eight hits and a walk while only getting 15 outs - he probably just doesn’t care anymore since he got the money, I’d imagine he adds about 125 pounds over the next month in celebratory booze and steaks - I’d straight up drop him right now.
Jeffrey Springs had one of his best outings of the year, and his first good outing since returning from the IL. Great stuff with a 12.9% SwStr% and no walks, he’s been one of the most overlooked pitchers in the league this year and has a great line of a 30.2% CSW%, 14.4% SwStr%, a 26% K%, and a 5% BB%.
Sonny Gray put up another really discouraging SwStr% mark of 7.3%. His 9.1% mark for the year over 1,268 pitches is alarming. He’s been throwing almost 60% fastballs (split between a sinker and a four-seamer) this year, and neither of those pitches have ever been very good for him - so it’s a weird change for him. I’m giving up on Sonny.
Verlander has been Sandy Alcantara-esque this year. He continues to put up elite box score lines despite just not having swing-and-miss stuff. He went for a putrid 7.3% SwStr% yesterday, a far cry from his season 12.8%. The 25.5% K% is probably about right for him moving forward, but you can’t argue with the results - he knows how to pitch.
Bottom five pitchers by the JA algo: Hutchison, Junk, Blackburn, Newcomb, Woodruff (!)
Hitter Notes
Oneil Cruz hit a ball 118.4 miles per hour for a single, it was his second ball of the year hit above 115 miles per hour. He joins Stanton, Schwarber, Ohtani, and Judge as the only hitters going above 118 this year.
Double blasts: Naquin, Ohtani, Wisdom, Gorman
Eloy Jimenez and Lars Nootbaar are all over the notes below, they’ve been crushing the ball lately
Top 10 JA model hitters since the all-star break: Judge, Riley, Alonso, Alvarez, Rutschman, LeMahieu, Brown, Jimenez, Goldschmidt, Wong
Interesting prospect call-up standing out in the projections today: Michael Massey from the Royals. He’s hit .316/.372/.526 this year between AAA and MLB, he has hit 16 homers and stolen 14 bases. Could be an add if you need some steals - and the 22% K% is good to see as well. Interesting DFS play tonight as well.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Touki Toussaint (LAA): 15.3 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
2. Joe Musgrove (SD): 13.9 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
3. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 12.1 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
4. Carlos Carrasco (NYM): 19.1 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
5. Paolo Espino (WSH): 5.6 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
6. Nick Pivetta (BOS): 10.5 SwStr%, 31.4 CSW%
7. Zach Thompson (PIT): 12.0 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
8. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 12.9 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
9. Kris Bubic (KC): 11.2 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
10. Alek Manoah (TOR): 10.3 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jeffrey Springs - 6.0 IP - 58.75 JA Points
2. Joe Musgrove - 4.33 IP - 47.75 JA Points
3. Carlos Carrasco - 6.0 IP - 47.0 JA Points
4. Jose Quintana - 6.0 IP - 46.0 JA Points
5. Johnny Cueto - 7.67 IP - 45.0 JA Points
6. Kris Bubic - 6.0 IP - 44.0 JA Points
7. Clayton Kershaw - 4.0 IP - 34.0 JA Points
8. Touki Toussaint - 4.33 IP - 34.0 JA Points
9. Justin Verlander - 6.0 IP - 33.0 JA Points
10. Nick Pivetta - 5.0 IP - 30.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 12 GS - 56.38 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 20 GS - 54.15 JA Points
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 18 GS - 53.98 JA Points
4. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 21 GS - 53.93 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 21 GS - 52.1 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 22 GS - 49.01 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 21 GS - 48.05 JA Points
8. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 16 GS - 46.61 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 14 GS - 46.3 JA Points
10. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 14 GS - 45.7 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Miles Mikolas's CU velo (22 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 78.0
Marcus Stroman's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 90.6
Nick Pivetta's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 86.9
Touki Toussaint's CU velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 74.7
Kyle Freeland's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 83.2
Carlos Carrasco's SL velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 83.6
Touki Toussaint's FS velo (19 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 85.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brandon Woodruff's FF usage (51.6%) up 14.3 points
Drew Hutchison's SI usage (19.3%) up 10.8 points
Jakob Junis's FC usage (15.2%) up 13.7 points
Jeffrey Springs's SI usage (17.6%) up 14.5 points
Kyle Freeland's FF usage (39.8%) up 16.0 points
Miles Mikolas's FF usage (37.6%) up 13.2 points
Nick Pivetta's SL usage (32.6%) up 13.5 points
Noah Syndergaard's SI usage (43.0%) up 16.8 points
Noah Syndergaard's CU usage (22.8%) up 13.3 points
Touki Toussaint's SI usage (51.2%) up 23.1 points
Zach Plesac's SL usage (40.4%) up 15.5 points
Zach Thompson's CU usage (25.3%) up 11.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 37.8% CSW%
Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 77 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 66 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 69 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 66 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Max Scherzer - 109 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Rodon - 70 TBF, 38.6% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 38.2% K%
Braxton Garrett - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Kevin Gausman - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Joe Ryan - 66 TBF, 34.8% K%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 34.3% K%
Yu Darvish - 107 TBF, 33.6% K%
Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 31.2% K%
Lance Lynn - 90 TBF, 31.1% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 35.5% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 69 TBF, 34.8% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 70 TBF, 32.9% K-BB%
Braxton Garrett - 69 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 102 TBF, 31.4% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 66 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 90 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 107 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Brady Singer - 75 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 80 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Andre Pallante - 68 TBF, 61.7% GB%
Alex Cobb - 102 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 80 TBF, 60.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Zac Gallen - 69 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Antonio Senzatela - 74 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 94 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Jose Urena - 87 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 83 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Martin Perez - 79 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 56 TBF, 30.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Alex Cobb - 102 TBF, 29.4 K%, 5.9 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 69 TBF, 37.7 K%, 5.8 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Framber Valdez - 55 TBF, 27.3 K%, 3.6 BB%, 66.7% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 2.7 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 66 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Gerrit Cole - +4.2% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Lance Lynn - +3.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Shohei Ohtani - +3.0% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Brady Singer - +4.0% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +3.2% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Merrill Kelly - +2.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.8% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jake Odorizzi - +3.3% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +3.9% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Pablo Lopez - +3.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Joe Ryan - +5.5% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Dean Kremer - +2.7% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Ranger Suarez - +2.8% CSW%, -4.9 BB%
Aaron Ashby - +3.5% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -7.3 BB%
Andre Pallante - +4.5% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Brandon Lowe (TB) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
J.D. Davis (SF) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jake Cave (MIN) 4 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nolan Arenado (STL) 8 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Nolan Gorman (STL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) 8 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Tyler Naquin (NYM) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Tyler O'Neill (STL) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Seth Brown - 5.0 PA - 71.0 JA Points
2. Brandon Lowe - 5.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
3. Tyler O'Neill - 4.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Ryan McMahon - 4.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
5. Patrick Wisdom - 4.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
6. Salvador Perez - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
7. Austin Nola - 4.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
9. Shohei Ohtani - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
10. Tyler Naquin - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 369.0 PA - 156.1 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 444.0 PA - 140.36 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (SD) - 442.0 PA - 130.05 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 350.0 PA - 116.57 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 465.0 PA - 114.06 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 448.0 PA - 107.68 JA Points
7. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 418.0 PA - 106.12 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 430.0 PA - 104.84 JA Points
9. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
10. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 387.0 PA - 98.91 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 118.4mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 115.4mph - home_run
Austin Riley (ATL) - 114.9mph - field_out
Nate Lowe (TEX) - 112.2mph - double
Josh Naylor (CLE) - 110.5mph - single
Daz Cameron (DET) - 110.4mph - single
Salvador Perez (KC) - 110.4mph - home_run
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) - 110.2mph - home_run
Tyler Naquin (NYM) - 109.8mph - home_run
Ryan McMahon (COL) - 109.7mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 74 PA, 41 BIP, 16 Brls, 39.0 Brl%
Austin Riley - 63 PA, 45 BIP, 16 Brls, 35.6 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 57 PA, 33 BIP, 10 Brls, 30.3 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 44 PA, 37 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.0 Brl%
Nolan Gorman - 43 PA, 24 BIP, 6 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Max Muncy - 58 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Bobby Dalbec - 52 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Ramon Laureano - 69 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Luke Voit - 57 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 49 PA, 33 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.2 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Aaron Judge - 74 PA, 0.627 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 63 PA, 0.542 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 57 PA, 0.481 xwOBA
Eloy Jimenez - 44 PA, 0.468 xwOBA
D.J. LeMahieu - 75 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 43 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Luke Voit - 57 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Chas McCormick - 57 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Lars Nootbaar - 43 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto - 55 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Bryson Stott - 58 PA, 100 Swings, 95.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 80 PA, 128 Swings, 93.8 Cont%
Mookie Betts - 83 PA, 143 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 55 PA, 106 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 63 PA, 108 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 63 PA, 105 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 62 PA, 112 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Myles Straw - 62 PA, 93 Swings, 89.2 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 75 PA, 106 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 53 PA, 103 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Brandon Lowe - 60 PA, 18.3 K%, 17.8 Brl%
Eloy Jimenez - 44 PA, 11.4 K%, 27.0 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 55 PA, 14.5 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Lars Nootbaar - 43 PA, 18.6 K%, 18.5 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 64 PA, 12.5 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 57 PA, 19.3 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Seth Brown - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jurickson Profar - +3.8% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -3.1 Chase%
Jose Abreu - +8.6% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -7.2 Chase%
Adolis Garcia - +3.1% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Aledmys Diaz - +5.7% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -9.7 Chase%
Juan Soto - +11.9% Contact%, +6.3 mph exit velo, -11.6 Chase%
Teoscar Hernandez - +5.5% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
J.T. Realmuto - +6.5% Contact%, +5.2 mph exit velo, -13.1 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Anthony Rizzo - 0.412 xwOBA, 15.4% Brl%, 81.8% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 11.1% K%
Juan Soto - 0.407 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 17.9% Chase%, 15.1% K%
Sean Murphy - 0.402 xwOBA, 17.6% Brl%, 78.3% Contact%, 22.1% Chase%, 20.4% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 0.403 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 79.6% Contact%, 24.2% Chase%, 15.1% K%
Yordan Alvarez - 0.481 xwOBA, 30.3% Brl%, 82.0% Contact%, 15.7% Chase%, 22.8% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jo Adell - 37.7% Whiff%, 85.0% Weak%, 0.977 Cold Rating
Franmil Reyes - 33.8% Whiff%, 79.3% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Trey Mancini - 36.4% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.907 Cold Rating
Ryan Mountcastle - 33.6% Whiff%, 75.8% Weak%, 0.901 Cold Rating
Ezequiel Duran - 31.3% Whiff%, 78.1% Weak%, 0.884 Cold Rating
Martin Maldonado - 32.9% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.872 Cold Rating
Nick Castellanos - 33.3% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.87 Cold Rating
Ian Happ - 35.5% Whiff%, 67.7% Weak%, 0.866 Cold Rating
Jarren Duran - 29.8% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating
Marcell Ozuna - 34.0% Whiff%, 67.7% Weak%, 0.843 Cold Rating
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