MLB Daily Notes: Friday, July 22
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
I slept until 7:30 two days in a row this week, which is wild. The list of things that have to happen for that to occur is a long one, so hitting on all of those items two days in a row is a true anomaly.
To make up for it, my daughter was up at 5:30 this morning saying she didn’t want to dream anymore, so I’ve been up since then. What exactly are you supposed to tell a kid who is afraid to dream? I’m not opposed to lying to my kids when the situation calls for it, but I’m not going to tell her “it will be fine you won’t have any bad dreams” when I can’t actually control that. If I say that and then she has a bad dream then there’s less reason to trust me in the future. So you’ve gotta pick your spots when you’re guessing/fabricating/lying. Dreams are so weird.
I worked a bit on the NFL product over the break, and it’s going to be pretty legit. I’ve accomplished this list of stats already with more to come
Targets
Target share
Snaps played
Snap share
Routes run
Targets per route run
Pace of play
Pass rate over expectation
All stats but applied to the red zone only
The list goes on, but the point is that I’ve finangled together the stats that are tougher to get your hands on - so you can rely on me for that stuff.
A note that you’ll be getting no draft-prep stuff from me, I never spend much time researching for fantasy football so I’m not going to waste your time with my shotty analysis - you can just stick to all my boys at RotoBaller to help you with that!
I can provide some projections and optimal Showdown lineups for Thursday and Monday nights (I love those showdown contests), I’ve actually had a good amount of success just using projections and optimizing a lineup and ramming it through cash games.
Also, looking to potentially pay someone else to do write-ups, so check the full details out there if you’re interested.
The Derek Carty podcast happens today! Leave your questions for him here.
We will be talking mostly about projection systems and some of the technical details there, but feel free to send questions about whatever.
We had enough MLB action to talk about yesterday, so let’s hit the highlights and then proceed with the automated report.
Two pitcher names standing out from yesterday! I have written repeatedly about how we can project who will strike out more or fewer batters moving forward by checking on the SwStr% vs. K% scatter plot.
The two biggest standouts I’ve been hammering home are Jordan Montgomery and Cristian Javier. Here is what the plot looked before yesterday:
Both of these dots fall far away from the trend line, on opposite sides. Montgomery’s 14.8% SwStr% was elite and has me really confused about the low 20% K%. Conversely, Javier had a lower 14.6% SwStr% but a huge 33.9% K%.
The difference here would be in things like foul balls and called strikes. It’s not that this will ever be a linear relationship, and you need a lot more than SwStr% to predict K% accurately - but it does do a lot of the heavy lifting. So we predict Montgomery’s K% to increase while Javier’s decreases as the season goes on.
This happened yesterday, at least - so minor victory lap here
Javier 99 pitches, 26% CSW%, 10% SwStr%, 14% K%, 19% BB%
Montgomery 86 pitches, 36% CSW%, 21% SwStr%, 31% K%, 4% BB%
Javier has more upside than Montgomery, but there’s no question that Montgomery is the safer investment. Javier’s command is so inconsistent and his arsenal is limited, making it tougher for him to get through a lineup a third time. I’d have been selling Javier a few weeks ago, but that ship might have sailed as he’s looked pretty rough in his last few outings.
Montgomery is a decent cheap-ish pitcher to go after if you’re in need of some reliable innings in the second half.
Tarik Skubal has looked better the last few times out. He took advantage of the Athletics matchup yesterday with a 41% K%, a 9% BB%, a 34.8% CSW%, and a 16.3% SwStr% putting a very good start in the books. He’s another guy that we just haven’t seen consistency from in his young career, but the 25.5% K% and 6.2% BB% this year are positive signs and I expect more good starts than bad moving forward.
This has nothing to do with yesterday but what the heck - Chris Morel has a 15.4% Barrel Rate this year. I would’ve guessed like 7%. He started hot with the barrels but then was just awful in mid-June, but now he’s been great again.
It comes with a 30.7% K% on the year, and it’s even worse in recent weeks (35.0% K% since June 19th). The 63% contact rate isn’t a vote of confidence either, so this guy seems like a boom-or-bust hitter right now, which was not expected (by me, at least). So I guess you can get some power from Morel in the second half and some steals should come in those rare times he ends up on first base.
Okay, full slate of games tonight so we’ll get some DraftKings picks out, and the notes will be a bit more ROBUST tomorrow after we get things fully back started up! Thanks for being here, let’s have a sweet rest of the season!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jordan Montgomery (NYY): 20.9 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
2. Tarik Skubal (DET): 18.5 SwStr%, 34.8 CSW%
3. Brandon Bielak (HOU): 8.1 SwStr%, 31.1 CSW%
4. Carlos Rodon (SF): 18.1 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
5. Pablo Lopez (MIA): 17.0 SwStr%, 30.9 CSW%
6. Luis Garcia (HOU): 10.9 SwStr%, 30.4 CSW%
7. Jon Gray (TEX): 13.8 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
8. Cristian Javier (HOU): 10.1 SwStr%, 26.3 CSW%
9. Zach Logue (OAK): 9.8 SwStr%, 26.1 CSW%
10. Frankie Montas (OAK): 15.1 SwStr%, 24.5 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal - 6.0 IP - 75.75 JA Points
2. Jordan Montgomery - 6.33 IP - 74.25 JA Points
3. Carlos Rodon - 5.0 IP - 57.25 JA Points
4. Jon Gray - 6.0 IP - 53.75 JA Points
5. Luis Garcia - 5.0 IP - 47.5 JA Points
6. Pablo Lopez - 5.0 IP - 47.5 JA Points
7. Zach Logue - 6.0 IP - 29.5 JA Points
8. Brandon Bielak - 3.33 IP - 24.5 JA Points
9. Cristian Javier - 5.0 IP - 22.75 JA Points
10. Domingo Acevedo - 1.0 IP - 22.25 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 10 GS - 56.37 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 18 GS - 55.14 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 18 GS - 54.82 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 19 GS - 53.65 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 15 GS - 53.23 JA Points
6. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 11 GS - 50.47 JA Points
7. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 13 GS - 48.44 JA Points
8. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 19 GS - 47.99 JA Points
9. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 19 GS - 46.88 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 14 GS - 46.08 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Zach Logue's FC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 85.8
Luis Garcia's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 75.9
Luis Garcia's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 79.4
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Carlos Rodon's SL usage (44.7%) up 12.5 points
Garrett Hill's SI usage (66.7%) up 17.7 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (52.1%) up 16.8 points
Jordan Montgomery's SI usage (48.8%) up 10.6 points
Luis Garcia's FC usage (42.4%) up 16.3 points
Tarik Skubal's SL usage (42.4%) up 11.9 points
Zach Logue's FC usage (17.4%) up 14.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 72 TBF, 39.4% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 67 TBF, 37.6% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 75 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 75 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 70 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Tony Gonsolin - 74 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 72 TBF, 43.1% K%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 42.7% K%
Blake Snell - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 41.1% K%
David Peterson - 84 TBF, 40.5% K%
Cristian Javier - 84 TBF, 40.5% K%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 36.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 67 TBF, 35.8% K%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 33.3% K%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 72 TBF, 41.7% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 35.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 34.1% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 67 TBF, 31.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 98 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Alex Wood - 62 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 84 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 28.4% K-BB%
David Peterson - 84 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 85 TBF, 72.5% GB%
Alex Cobb - 98 TBF, 64.9% GB%
Andre Pallante - 69 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Brad Keller - 75 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Alex Wood - 62 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 103 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 57.7% GB%
Jose Urena - 77 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 70 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Wood - 62 TBF, 30.6 K%, 1.6 BB%, 59.5% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 7.1 BB%, 55.6% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 78 TBF, 30.8 K%, 1.3 BB%, 56.6% GB%
Jose Berrios - 99 TBF, 29.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Robbie Ray - 73 TBF, 41.1 K%, 5.5 BB%, 48.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 32.1 K%, 3.7 BB%, 57.7% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 67 TBF, 35.8 K%, 4.5 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 70 TBF, 30.0 K%, 5.7 BB%, 53.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jon Gray - +2.0% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Mitch Keller - +3.3% CSW%, -6.7 BB%
Kyle Wright - +5.0% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Robbie Ray - +3.6% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Jose Berrios - +5.7% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Max Scherzer - +6.7% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Braxton Garrett - +4.0% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Nestor Cortes - +2.0% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +4.4% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Trevor Williams - +2.5% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 9 PA, 17 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jeimer Candelario (DET) 7 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. D.J. LeMahieu - 5.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
2. Freddie Freeman - 3.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
3. Chas McCormick - 4.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
4. Yordan Alvarez - 4.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
5. Marcus Semien - 5.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
6. Seth Brown - 4.0 PA - 31.0 JA Points
7. Mookie Betts - 5.0 PA - 31.0 JA Points
8. Jeimer Candelario - 4.0 PA - 29.0 JA Points
9. Aaron Judge - 4.0 PA - 27.0 JA Points
10. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 25.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 316.0 PA - 151.14 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (WSH) - 389.0 PA - 128.02 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 392.0 PA - 121.73 JA Points
4. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 305.0 PA - 121.31 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 404.0 PA - 116.34 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 394.0 PA - 113.4 JA Points
7. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 346.0 PA - 106.71 JA Points
8. Will Smith (LAD) - 322.0 PA - 105.59 JA Points
9. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 271.0 PA - 104.21 JA Points
10. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 390.0 PA - 100.31 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Joc Pederson (SF) - 115.7mph - foul
Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 111.2mph - foul
Riley Greene (DET) - 111.1mph - single
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 111.0mph - home_run
Avisail Garcia (MIA) - 110.5mph - single
Joc Pederson (SF) - 110.2mph - foul
Leody Taveras (TEX) - 109.0mph - single
Evan Longoria (SF) - 108.6mph - home_run
Anthony Rizzo (NYY) - 108.1mph - foul
Sean Murphy (OAK) - 107.8mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 69 PA, 37 BIP, 10 Brls, 27.0 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 56 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 62 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 59 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 67 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Darick Hall - 54 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Luke Voit - 59 PA, 35 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Manny Machado - 64 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Brandon Belt - 48 PA, 31 BIP, 6 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 62 PA, 42 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 61 PA, 93 Swings, 95.7 Cont%
Myles Straw - 55 PA, 86 Swings, 93.0 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 57 PA, 85 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 53 PA, 102 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Joey Wendle - 60 PA, 100 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 74 PA, 116 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 53 PA, 85 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 68 PA, 100 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Nicky Lopez - 67 PA, 121 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Juan Soto - 58 PA, 76 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Hicks - 53 PA, 17.0 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Austin Riley - 75 PA, 20.0 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Freddie Freeman - 69 PA, 8.7 K%, 14.0 Brl%
J.T. Realmuto - 44 PA, 18.2 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 61 PA, 19.7 K%, 18.2 Brl%
Ketel Marte - 59 PA, 11.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 50 PA, 18.0 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 76 PA, 18.4 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Matt Carpenter - +12% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -4.1 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Aaron Hicks - 0.467 xwOBA, 21.7% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 16.2% Chase%, 15.8% K%
Alex Bregman - 0.381 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 84.5% Contact%, 15.5% Chase%, 7.8% K%
Jorge Polanco - 0.398 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 86.2% Contact%, 20.2% Chase%, 15.8% K%
Juan Soto - 0.51 xwOBA, 12.1% Brl%, 91.2% Contact%, 18.4% Chase%, 4.7% K%
Wilmer Flores - 0.379 xwOBA, 11.8% Brl%, 80.7% Contact%, 22.7% Chase%, 15.9% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Jake Meyers - 38.1% Whiff%, 86.7% Weak%, 0.961 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 29.5% Whiff%, 77.4% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Trey Mancini - 32.4% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Eugenio Suarez - 32.7% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.857 Cold Rating
Keibert Ruiz - 29.0% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.855 Cold Rating
Kyle Schwarber - 31.9% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.85 Cold Rating
Giancarlo Stanton - 29.2% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.826 Cold Rating
Nick Castellanos - 42.0% Whiff%, 61.9% Weak%, 0.809 Cold Rating
Nate Lowe - 32.1% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.803 Cold Rating
Adolis Garcia - 33.7% Whiff%, 64.0% Weak%, 0.797 Cold Rating
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