MLB Daily Notes: Friday, June 10
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Fifteen games tonight and they all start after 7 pm eastern. This will be the first 15-game DFS slate of the year, and I’m here for it. It’s also quite fun that the three top projected arms are Berrios, Strider, and McKenzie. All three of those guys are priced pretty low on DraftKings and in smash matchups (matchups!). Should be a fun slate - and I’ll be very interested to see how the ownership shakes out on those two guys. Here are the top 10 pitcher projections for the model’s first run this morning:
If you want the full projections, become a paid member here.
To go further on that matchup stuff, I noticed yesterday how laughably bad the Athletics and Tigers have been this year. I apply my JA scoring model to team offenses every day, and it ranks the teams. The bottom five offenses right now look like this:
#26 PIT: 3.96 JA Points
#27 ARI: 3.87
#28 TB: 1.07
#29 OAK: -17.33
#30 DET: -20.66
Looking at team OPS on my Team O tab on the dashboard:
(These numbers are SLIGHTLY off because the savant dataset doesn’t capture intentional walks)
You can see the huge gap between the Tigers and the Pirates there. This is wild stuff - you can pretty much stream any pitcher in the league against these two offenses and feel good about it.
It might be worth a post series that just puts out what pitchers are projected to face those two teams the following week and then people can go pick them up and get rich AF.
Shane McClanahan would be the pitcher of the day yesterday with his eight innings, no unearned run performance, but everybody knows he’s a stud by now - and for some reason, he didn’t actually have that great of a JA score. After a quick look, the reason for that appears to be all the line drives he gave up - my man gave up EIGHT line drives yesterday, and somehow only two of them went for hits. That’s pretty wild considering a line drive goes for a hit like 70% of the time on average. A little luck is nothing to be ashamed of though, and I think Shane is the Cy Young if the season ended today.
The top pitcher by a few metrics yesterday was Zach Davies. He generated 15 whiffs, seven strikeouts, and just one walk across six innings, getting eight ground balls and allowing zero barrels. Good for him, I guess!
In a similar vein, Miles Mikolas was up there on the list as well. He struck out a season-best NINE Rays on a dozen whiffs with no walks and just one barrel (that went for a homer). For the year he has a 20%-K% K-BB% with a 5% Brl% and a 45% GB%. Downright Wainwrightian - he should probably be started most times out.
Speaking of the Athletics, Christian Bethancourt had FOUR barrels yesterday, which is hilarious. That was half of his previous season total, bringing him to a dozen on the year. He is a bit sneaky now with some solid numbers
114 PA
14.5% Brl%
21% K%
But the good news ends there as he’s turned all of that into just a .245/.289/.377 line. He takes no walks and whiffs a lot (69% contact%), but maybe someone to add in AL West Only Leagues.
It seems like we need to set aside our early-season panic about offensive suppression. The weather has counteracted the ball (or the ball changed again? Who knows, but probably the former), and homer numbers are back looking like last season.
56% of yesterday’s barrels went for dingers, so we are majorly on the uptick.
For 2021, the final number was 53% of barrels going for homers. In 2019, it was 59%. We’ll keep an eye on that figure to see what the final result of all these changes will prove to be (humidors play differently depending on the weather and all that business, so we can’t really predict what this number will settle at - or at least, I can’t).
I had a slow day yesterday so I added two new things to the daily notes, “hot pitchers” and “cold hitters”.
Hot pitchers are pitchers that have improved in CSW% and BB% by at least two points over their last three weeks as compared to the career marks from 2020 onwards. Here they are:
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Sandy Alcantara - +5.4% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Shane Bieber - +3.9% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Zach Davies - +2.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Tony Gonsolin - +3.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Martin Perez - +3.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +4.2% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Alex Cobb - +2.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
I used just these two stats because I think it covers quite a bit of what we’re looking for. There is some overlap between CSW and BB - they are a bit correlated, but I think it’s good enough! Should be interesting to see which names pop up here as we move forward.
And I put in a “cold hitter” tracker, which isn’t really about being cold because it just shows who the worst hitters of the last two weeks have been - it doesn’t concern itself with career averages. Check it:
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Javier Baez - 40.0% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.967 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 33.8% Whiff%, 91.3% Weak%, 0.955 Cold Rating
Nelson Cruz - 42.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.947 Cold Rating
Eli White - 36.9% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.943 Cold Rating
Yasmani Grandal - 31.9% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.933 Cold Rating
Jeff McNeil - 36.4% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.928 Cold Rating
Jesus Sanchez - 34.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.913 Cold Rating
Victor Robles - 31.7% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.902 Cold Rating
Lars Nootbaar - 32.8% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.886 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 30.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.865 Cold Rating
Most of the time we’ll probably just be seeing bad hitters here, but some names certainly stick out on this first run. Baez has been ridiculously awful this year, and Varsho shows up at #2 which was surprising because he had put together a really nice season before recently. Nelly Cruz also showing up here, he was also scratched from the lineup last night so maybe those two things are related.
Nothing hugely actionable her, but it was easy enough to add to the automated notes so you’ll get it every day.
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Miles Mikolas (STL): 14.1 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
2. Shane McClanahan (TB): 21.3 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
3. Dylan Cease (CWS): 18.2 SwStr%, 35.5 CSW%
4. Stephen Strasburg (WSH): 7.2 SwStr%, 34.9 CSW%
5. Zach Davies (ARI): 14.0 SwStr%, 34.6 CSW%
6. Tyler Mahle (CIN): 15.2 SwStr%, 34.3 CSW%
7. Dylan Bundy (MIN): 10.6 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
8. JT Brubaker (PIT): 16.2 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
9. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 19.5 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
10. Logan Webb (SF): 11.0 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Zach Davies - 6.0 IP - 72.0 JA Points
2. Miles Mikolas - 7.67 IP - 71.5 JA Points
3. Max Fried - 5.67 IP - 69.5 JA Points
4. Corbin Burnes - 4.67 IP - 68.75 JA Points
5. Tyler Mahle - 6.0 IP - 64.75 JA Points
6. JT Brubaker - 7.0 IP - 64.75 JA Points
7. Dylan Cease - 4.33 IP - 61.25 JA Points
8. Shane McClanahan - 8.0 IP - 58.25 JA Points
9. Trevor Rogers - 5.0 IP - 56.25 JA Points
10. Shohei Ohtani - 7.0 IP - 55.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 12 GS - 55.49 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 12 GS - 53.65 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 12 GS - 50.7 JA Points
4. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
5. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 6 GS - 47.75 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 12 GS - 47.11 JA Points
7. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 11 GS - 47.09 JA Points
8. Wil Crowe (PIT) - 1 GS - 46.95 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 8 GS - 46.79 JA Points
10. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Dylan Cease's KC velo (12 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 83.0
Shohei Ohtani's FC velo (10 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 91.3
Dylan Cease's SL velo (49 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 88.3
Austin Gomber's SL velo (24 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 85.5
Jordan Lyles's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 77.9
James Kaprielian's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 84.7
Nick Pivetta's SL velo (21 pitches) DOWN -3.1mph to 82.5
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
James Kaprielian's FF usage (68.0%) up 14.8 points
Kris Bubic's CH usage (41.1%) up 10.5 points
Tyler Anderson's CH usage (42.0%) up 10.3 points
Zach Eflin's FF usage (32.3%) up 18.4 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 99 TBF, 38.1% CSW%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Luis Severino - 75 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 94 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 78 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Tony Gonsolin - 86 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
MacKenzie Gore - 72 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 34.7% K%
MacKenzie Gore - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 33.3% K%
Zack Wheeler - 78 TBF, 33.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Shane Bieber - 99 TBF, 32.3% K%
Hunter Greene - 87 TBF, 32.2% K%
Cristian Javier - 81 TBF, 32.1% K%
Luis Severino - 75 TBF, 30.7% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 30.3% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 99 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 105 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 87 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Luis Severino - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 26.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 68.9% GB%
Framber Valdez - 82 TBF, 65.0% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 83 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 91 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Patrick Corbin - 103 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Kyle Wright - 97 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Martin Perez - 111 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Dylan Cease - 89 TBF, 55.8% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 77 TBF, 35.1 K%, 6.5 BB%, 68.9% GB%
Alex Cobb - 50 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 56.2% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 95 TBF, 34.7 K%, 5.3 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 102 TBF, 29.4 K%, 2.9 BB%, 50.7% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 119 TBF, 29.4 K%, 3.4 BB%, 55.7% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 78 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.1 BB%, 54.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Sandy Alcantara - +5.4% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Shane Bieber - +3.9% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Zach Davies - +2.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Tony Gonsolin - +3.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Martin Perez - +3.1% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +4.2% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Alex Cobb - +2.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Christian Bethancourt (OAK) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 4 Barrels, 1 HR
Aaron Hicks (NYY) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Aaron Judge (NYY) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Joey Gallo (NYY) 5 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Max Muncy (LAD) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Christian Bethancourt - 4.0 PA - 84.0 JA Points
2. Byron Buxton - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
3. Gavin Lux - 5.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
4. Trey Mancini - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
5. MJ Melendez - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
6. Oscar Gonzalez - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
7. Willy Adames - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
8. Emmanuel Rivera - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
9. Steven Kwan - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
10. Aaron Hicks - 5.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 213.0 PA - 153.05 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 227.0 PA - 141.85 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 238.0 PA - 133.11 JA Points
4. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 158.0 PA - 127.85 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 171.0 PA - 120.0 JA Points
6. Trey Mancini (BAL) - 231.0 PA - 118.61 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 260.0 PA - 111.54 JA Points
8. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 246.0 PA - 108.13 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 194.0 PA - 103.51 JA Points
10. Joc Pederson (SF) - 162.0 PA - 101.98 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 116.0mph - field_out
Christian Bethancourt (OAK) - 113.4mph - single
Trevor Larnach (MIN) - 112.4mph - home_run
Ryan McMahon (COL) - 111.8mph - single
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 111.3mph - single
Joey Gallo (NYY) - 111.3mph - home_run
Aristides Aquino (CIN) - 110.8mph - foul
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 110.8mph - home_run
Christian Bethancourt (OAK) - 110.7mph - field_out
Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) - 110.6mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 45 BIP, 13 Brls, 28.9 Brl%
Jake Burger - 50 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 82 PA, 55 BIP, 14 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 59 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 57 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Austin Riley - 88 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Ryan Mountcastle - 77 PA, 51 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 70 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 62 PA, 42 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 48 PA, 79 Swings, 94.9 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 73 PA, 129 Swings, 93.0 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 64 PA, 123 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 54 PA, 92 Swings, 92.4 Cont%
Jose Altuve - 73 PA, 125 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 84 PA, 131 Swings, 91.6 Cont%
Myles Straw - 76 PA, 119 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Jean Segura - 49 PA, 87 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 71 PA, 106 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 69 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 56 PA, 8.9 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 75 PA, 18.7 K%, 15.8 Brl%
Jake Burger - 50 PA, 20.0 K%, 25.7 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 62 PA, 17.7 K%, 19.0 Brl%
Joey Votto - 77 PA, 18.2 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 72 PA, 9.7 K%, 17.9 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Aaron Judge - +6.8% Contact%, +3.7 mph exit velo, -4.7 Chase%
Garrett Cooper - +5.3% Contact%, +3.9 mph exit velo, -11.1 Chase%
Eugenio Suarez - +6.8% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -4.8 Chase%
Yordan Alvarez - +6.6% Contact%, +6.5 mph exit velo, -7.8 Chase%
Cal Raleigh - +18.1% Contact%, +8.4 mph exit velo, -15.0 Chase%
Starling Marte - +3.1% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -7.3 Chase%
Ryan Mountcastle - +13.2% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -12.2 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Javier Baez - 40.0% Whiff%, 77.8% Weak%, 0.967 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 33.8% Whiff%, 91.3% Weak%, 0.955 Cold Rating
Nelson Cruz - 42.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.947 Cold Rating
Eli White - 36.9% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.943 Cold Rating
Yasmani Grandal - 31.9% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.933 Cold Rating
Jeff McNeil - 36.4% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.928 Cold Rating
Jesus Sanchez - 34.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.913 Cold Rating
Victor Robles - 31.7% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.902 Cold Rating
Lars Nootbaar - 32.8% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.886 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 30.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.865 Cold Rating
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