MLB Daily Notes: Friday, June 17
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
Today, a truck is going to drop a playground in my driveway, and unfortunately for me, it’s coming in pieces. It is up to me to turn hundreds of points of wood and plastic into this:
Even if I were a regular Al Borland, I couldn’t possibly build that myself right? It’s not even a real option - so I will have to seek help. Good thing for me is that I go to #CHURCH and have made a handful of dad-friends there, and since they’re Christians - they’ll feel obligated to say yes when I ask for their help. And since they’re 50+ year-old-dads, they’ll also probably be excited to do it. The problem is I don’t think I can coax them with brewskis cause the Christian population is underrepresented in the brewski-drinking population. But again, I don’t think I need to do much convincing here, so the shout today goes to #CHURCH.
Another pretty slow day yesterday, but we’re all ramped up for another Friday full of baseball. I’ll get my DraftKings analysis & picks article out this afternoon for paid subs - so keep an eye out for that, the slate is fantastic tonight.
The pitcher of the day yesterday was Musgrove, but Beau Briske is the guy I want to take a look at. Yesterday he twirled seven shutout innings giving up just three hits and two walks while striking out six.
That good line with a surprisingly low 23.4% CSW% but a better-than-average 13.8% SwStr%. He kept the ball on the ground (56% GB%) and didn’t allow a barrel.
Backing it up a touch to his last 3 starts, he has a 25.1% CSW%, a 12.2% SwStr%, a 21.4% K%, and a 4.3% BB% with an 11.5% Brl% and a 48% GB%.
For the season: 23.1% CSW%, 16.4% K%, 7.5% BB%, 41% GB%
His arsenal breakdown:
Really nothing impressive here, not a single pitch with a good CSW% or SwStr% (relative to the league averages on each pitch), and even over the last three better starts the numbers aren’t impressive. So I guess this is a bust, there’s no reason to expect much from Brieske moving forward.
George Kirby also pitched pretty well, putting up a quality start against the Angels in a losing effort against the great Shohei Ohtani. He had a really impressive 16.5% SwStr% in the start with a 61% GB%. His slider went for a 15.4% SwStr%, another good number and he’s really really made that pitch work better since his first couple of starts. His fastball averaged 96 and touched 98. I watched a few innings of him for the first time this year and yeah - he looks really good. For the year now, he has a 22.9% K% and a 2.8% BB% with a 46.2% GB%. It’s only strikeouts that are keeping him out of the magic formula qualifiers, and he’s not missing the cut there by much, I think he’ll eventually show up there. I’m buying Kirby for the rest of the year, and he’s probably a future stud ace in the Majors beyond 2022.
We hardly saw any offense all day yesterday, but Rizzo and Schwarber double-barreled and led the way in JA points. Kyle Schwarber now has a 29% Brl% over the last three weeks, which you’ll see below, and he gets two games today against Joan Adon and Paulo Espino - so I’d actually be a bit surprised if he doesn’t have a big day.
The model is projecting him for 0.40 homers in the first game against Adon and then 0.58 homers in the second game against Espino… so that’s insane. I think that 0.58 might be the highest of the whole season from the model - so he’s quite a good play in DFS tonight.
Gave everybody a free look at the K prop sheet today, so check that out here:
Also, listen to my podcast this weekend! I’m asking a lot of you people!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Joe Musgrove (SD): 15.1 SwStr%, 38.7 CSW%
2. Aaron Ashby (MIL): 17.7 SwStr%, 38.0 CSW%
3. Clarke Schmidt (NYY): 16.0 SwStr%, 38.0 CSW%
4. George Kirby (SEA): 16.5 SwStr%, 29.9 CSW%
5. Rich Hill (BOS): 13.4 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
6. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 17.2 SwStr%, 29.0 CSW%
7. Tylor Megill (NYM): 16.7 SwStr%, 27.8 CSW%
8. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 9.7 SwStr%, 26.9 CSW%
9. Chad Kuhl (COL): 10.5 SwStr%, 26.3 CSW%
10. Tyler Wells (BAL): 9.3 SwStr%, 25.6 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Joe Musgrove - 7.0 IP - 81.75 JA Points
2. George Kirby - 6.0 IP - 52.25 JA Points
3. Triston McKenzie - 6.0 IP - 51.5 JA Points
4. Beau Brieske - 6.67 IP - 48.0 JA Points
5. Rich Hill - 5.67 IP - 43.75 JA Points
6. Clarke Schmidt - 3.0 IP - 42.25 JA Points
7. Chad Kuhl - 5.0 IP - 42.0 JA Points
8. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 IP - 41.5 JA Points
9. Tylor Megill - 3.33 IP - 41.25 JA Points
10. Aaron Ashby - 4.0 IP - 37.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 13 GS - 56.35 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 4 GS - 54.7 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 13 GS - 53.63 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 13 GS - 51.5 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8 GS - 49.99 JA Points
6. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 13 GS - 47.77 JA Points
7. Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 8 GS - 46.64 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 8 GS - 46.36 JA Points
9. Luis Severino (NYY) - 11 GS - 45.82 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 9 GS - 45.62 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Patrick Corbin's SL velo (30 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 83.5
Clarke Schmidt's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 84.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Ashby's SL usage (44.3%) up 13.5 points
Beau Brieske's SL usage (28.7%) up 10.2 points
Beau Brieske's SI usage (11.7%) up 10.3 points
Clarke Schmidt's FF usage (34.0%) up 12.1 points
George Kirby's CU usage (25.8%) up 16.5 points
Martin Perez's FF usage (20.9%) up 13.9 points
Paul Blackburn's FC usage (29.6%) up 12.2 points
Rich Hill's FC usage (22.0%) up 17.8 points
Shohei Ohtani's SL usage (40.9%) up 12.9 points
Tylor Megill's SL usage (40.3%) up 23.2 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 36.8% CSW%
Aaron Ashby - 96 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 105 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 87 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Kyle Wright - 77 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Brady Singer - 90 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 38.3% K%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 34.0% K%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 31.3% K%
Jon Gray - 100 TBF, 30.0% K%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 29.8% K%
Aaron Ashby - 96 TBF, 29.2% K%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 29.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shane McClanahan - 99 TBF, 29.3% K-BB%
Corbin Burnes - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Tyler Mahle - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 81 TBF, 25.9% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 94 TBF, 24.5% K-BB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
Luis Garcia - 126 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 81 TBF, 69.2% GB%
Justin Steele - 78 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Max Fried - 101 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Aaron Ashby - 96 TBF, 59.0% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Dane Dunning - 93 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 95 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 77 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Ashby - 96 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 59.0% GB%
Carlos Carrasco - 97 TBF, 29.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 57.6% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 86 TBF, 33.7 K%, 7.0 BB%, 49.0% GB%
Joe Musgrove - 105 TBF, 28.6 K%, 7.6 BB%, 53.0% GB%
Logan Webb - 99 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 52.3% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 28.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 60.5% GB%
Shane Bieber - 100 TBF, 29.0 K%, 3.0 BB%, 45.6% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 69 TBF, 29.0 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.7% GB%
Walker Buehler - 54 TBF, 29.6 K%, 5.6 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 28.1 K%, 4.2 BB%, 57.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Sandy Alcantara - +3.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Tyler Mahle - +2.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Zach Davies - +3.6% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Shane Bieber - +2.5% CSW%, -4.2 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.1% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Kyle Wright - +2.7% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Tarik Skubal - +3.6% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Anthony Rizzo (NYY) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Mike Trout (LAA) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Kyle Schwarber - 5.0 PA - 67.0 JA Points
2. Anthony Rizzo - 4.0 PA - 64.0 JA Points
3. Mike Trout - 5.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
4. Brian Serven - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
5. Nate Lowe - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
6. Charlie Blackmon - 5.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
7. Adley Rutschman - 5.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
8. Francisco Mejia - 3.0 PA - 34.0 JA Points
9. Jake Cronenworth - 5.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
10. Connor Joe - 5.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 239.0 PA - 145.61 JA Points
2. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 263.0 PA - 135.51 JA Points
3. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 253.0 PA - 133.75 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 273.0 PA - 127.77 JA Points
5. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 171.0 PA - 122.81 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 195.0 PA - 116.72 JA Points
7. Juan Soto (WSH) - 281.0 PA - 113.88 JA Points
8. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 261.0 PA - 113.1 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 200.0 PA - 113.0 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 223.0 PA - 106.37 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 118.8mph - field_out
Franchy Cordero (BOS) - 113.6mph - single
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.9mph - foul
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.0mph - home_run
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) - 110.5mph - foul
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 109.6mph - single
Manuel Margot (TB) - 109.4mph - field_out
Matt Vierling (PHI) - 109.3mph - single
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 108.9mph - single
Trent Grisham (SD) - 108.9mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 88 PA, 49 BIP, 14 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 52 BIP, 13 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Jake Burger - 57 PA, 41 BIP, 10 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Jazz Chisholm - 68 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Austin Riley - 85 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Gary Sanchez - 57 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 46 BIP, 9 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
William Contreras - 51 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Joey Gallo - 55 PA, 27 BIP, 5 Brls, 18.5 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 78 PA, 56 BIP, 10 Brls, 17.9 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 56 PA, 79 Swings, 96.2 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 64 PA, 113 Swings, 92.9 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 74 PA, 102 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 62 PA, 108 Swings, 90.7 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 61 PA, 105 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 81 PA, 152 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 75 PA, 108 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Myles Straw - 72 PA, 109 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 74 PA, 126 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 79 PA, 134 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Alejandro Kirk - 66 PA, 10.6 K%, 15.7 Brl%
Andres Gimenez - 57 PA, 19.3 K%, 15.0 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 78 PA, 14.1 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Gleyber Torres - 56 PA, 17.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Jose Abreu - 81 PA, 13.6 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Juan Soto - 80 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 74 PA, 17.6 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Nick Gordon - 54 PA, 13.0 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 87 PA, 17.2 K%, 17.5 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 73 PA, 16.4 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 81 PA, 19.8 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 84 PA, 16.7 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Will Smith - 69 PA, 13.0 K%, 17.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 78 PA, 9.0 K%, 16.4 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Ian Happ - +5.1% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Danny Mendick - +3.7% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -5.6 Chase%
Paul Goldschmidt - +10.7% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -11.8 Chase%
Carlos Correa - +6.9% Contact%, +5.1 mph exit velo, -7.6 Chase%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Julio Rodriguez - 40.4% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.98 Cold Rating
Michael Chavis - 38.0% Whiff%, 78.6% Weak%, 0.965 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 43.8% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.917 Cold Rating
Cody Bellinger - 32.4% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Kevin Kiermaier - 31.2% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 30.9% Whiff%, 70.6% Weak%, 0.827 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 35.4% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.826 Cold Rating
Christopher Morel - 38.9% Whiff%, 64.9% Weak%, 0.821 Cold Rating
Willi Castro - 27.6% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.8 Cold Rating
Abraham Toro - 27.7% Whiff%, 72.2% Weak%, 0.793 Cold Rating
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