MLB Daily Notes: Friday, May 27
Aaron Nola had his best start of the year BUT FELL OUT OF THE MAGIC FORMULA QUALIFIERS. The injustice! The good news is that he fell out of the ground-ball rate qualifier, he certainly didn’t have any trouble with strikeouts (32.3% last night) or walks (0% last night).
The pitcher of the night was Frankie Montas who went for a nice 21% SwStr% and a 41% K% while allowing just one barrel and no homers. He’s been great this year and he made us some money on the strikeout prop!
Ryan Yarbrough also put up a really nice outing, generating 13 whiffs and getting five strikeouts without allowing a barrel or a homer. He’s not really there for fantasy purposes, but something to keep an eye on.
The hitter of the night was Trevor Story, who is another nail in the coffin of me saying hitters can’t be hot.
Since May 18th, Story has seven homers, a 29% Brl%, a 71% Hard%, and a .313/.378/.969 line. He’s still striking out a ton in that time (32.4%), but he is not missing pitches.
It looks like Shohei Ohtani lost some velocity, but that has mostly to do with the spike in velo we saw in his previous outing. His average four-seam fastball velos for the year:
97.8, 97.4, 97.1, 96.3, 97.4, 96.0, 98.6, 95.6
So yes, last night was his lowest average velocity, but it’s about what we saw from him last season. It’s still something to monitor, and interesting that the Blue Jays did hit him pretty hard last night (23% Brl%, 54% FB%) in between their ten strikeouts.
One more note is that Danny Jansen has crushed the ball when he has played this year. He has a .303/.361/.879 line in his 36 plate appearances with six dingers. You can’t roster him right now because he’s hardly ever playing, but if some injuries happen and he’s forced to play - he would be a catcher to add because the guy can definitely hit.
The strikeout prop model is loving Shane Bieber tonight, but again the model isn’t taking the lower strikeout rate in 2022 into full account here. We reach back to the pitcher’s last 30 starts, which for Bieber takes him back into 2020 when he was just striking everybody out. The betting line is 6.5 right now, and I definitely think he can beat that - but it’s not as much of a slam-dunk as the model suggests (the model has him for 9.2 strikeouts tonight - YIKES!).
The same exact thing is true with Verlander, he also has his strikeout rate down this year and the last 30 starts takes him way back into 2019.
I will give a slight recommendation for both of those lines, but I don’t think they’re auto-bets.
Here come the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Frankie Montas (OAK): 20.8 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
2. Ryan Yarbrough (TB): 16.2 SwStr%, 36.2 CSW%
3. Aaron Nola (PHI): 13.8 SwStr%, 35.8 CSW%
4. Jaime Barria (LAA): 18.9 SwStr%, 35.8 CSW%
5. Martin Perez (TEX): 8.4 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 18.3 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
7. Tarik Skubal (DET): 10.8 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
8. Devin Smeltzer (MIN): 8.8 SwStr%, 30.0 CSW%
9. Daniel Lynch (KC): 17.0 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
10. Hunter Greene (CIN): 18.6 SwStr%, 29.1 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Frankie Montas - 7.0 IP - 71.25 JA Points
2. Aaron Nola - 8.33 IP - 65.25 JA Points
3. Ryan Yarbrough - 5.33 IP - 61.25 JA Points
4. Nestor Cortes - 8.0 IP - 47.25 JA Points
5. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 IP - 45.25 JA Points
6. Kyle Wright - 6.67 IP - 45.25 JA Points
7. Martin Perez - 7.0 IP - 42.5 JA Points
8. Devin Smeltzer - 7.0 IP - 42.25 JA Points
9. Daniel Lynch - 5.33 IP - 38.25 JA Points
10. Tarik Skubal - 7.0 IP - 36.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 9.0 GS - 56.95 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 9.0 GS - 53.36 JA Points
3. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 9.0 GS - 52.37 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 8.0 GS - 51.27 JA Points
5. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 9.0 GS - 50.41 JA Points
6. Freddy Peralta (MIL) - 8.0 GS - 49.99 JA Points
7. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 8.0 GS - 48.95 JA Points
8. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 7.0 GS - 48.24 JA Points
9. Alex Cobb (SF) - 7.0 GS - 47.45 JA Points
10. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 9.0 GS - 47.23 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Tarik Skubal's SL velo (37 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 91.1
Nestor Cortes's FF velo (40 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 92.5
Nestor Cortes's SL velo (19 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 78.6
Dallas Keuchel's SI velo (21 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.5
Nestor Cortes's FC velo (45 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.5
Shohei Ohtani's FF velo (27 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 95.6
German Marquez's KC velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.4
Shohei Ohtani's CU velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 76.8
Shohei Ohtani's FS velo (14 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 87.7
Shohei Ohtani's FC velo (13 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 87.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's SI usage (37.6%) up 17.1 points
Dallas Keuchel's FC usage (32.7%) up 17.1 points
Devin Smeltzer's CH usage (32.5%) up 15.9 points
German Marquez's SI usage (27.9%) up 16.1 points
Luis Frias's SL usage (36.5%) up 16.2 points
Mitch White's FF usage (63.9%) up 14.9 points
Ryan Yarbrough's CU usage (33.8%) up 14.6 points
Shohei Ohtani's FC usage (14.0%) up 10.5 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 111 TBF, 37.1% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 86 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Dane Dunning - 103 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 99 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 101 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Alex Cobb - 91 TBF, 31.7% CSW%
Tyler Anderson - 104 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 37.8% K%
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 37.2% K%
Sonny Gray - 86 TBF, 34.9% K%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Sean Manaea - 78 TBF, 32.1% K%
Gerrit Cole - 111 TBF, 31.5% K%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 31.1% K%
Nestor Cortes - 105 TBF, 28.6% K%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3% K%
Logan Gilbert - 100 TBF, 28.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Gerrit Cole - 111 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 98 TBF, 29.6% K-BB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 28.6% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Sean Manaea - 78 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Tyler Anderson - 104 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Nestor Cortes - 105 TBF, 23.8% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 91 TBF, 23.1% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Patrick Sandoval - 81 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 115 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 82 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Alex Cobb - 91 TBF, 61.3% GB%
Martin Perez - 109 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Walker Buehler - 99 TBF, 57.9% GB%
Joan Adon - 84 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 96 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Luis Castillo - 84 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 54.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Alex Cobb - 91 TBF, 27.5 K%, 4.4 BB%, 61.3% GB%
Frankie Montas - 84 TBF, 34.5 K%, 6.0 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 64 TBF, 31.2 K%, 4.7 BB%, 46.2% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 35.6 K%, 1.4 BB%, 45.7% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Danny Jansen (TOR) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Freddie Freeman (LAD) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Farmer (CIN) 5 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Freddie Freeman - 5.0 PA - 74.0 JA Points
2. Alex Verdugo - 6.0 PA - 65.0 JA Points
3. Kyle Farmer - 5.0 PA - 56.0 JA Points
4. Ian Happ - 4.0 PA - 49.0 JA Points
5. Chris Taylor - 6.0 PA - 48.0 JA Points
6. Matt Reynolds - 5.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
7. Andrew Vaughn - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
8. Nick Senzel - 6.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
9. Tommy Edman - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
10. Miguel Cabrera - 5.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 132.0 PA - 159.09 JA Points
2. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 179.0 PA - 142.57 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 185.0 PA - 141.84 JA Points
4. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 195.0 PA - 131.49 JA Points
5. Juan Soto (WSH) - 201.0 PA - 117.61 JA Points
6. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 161.0 PA - 117.52 JA Points
7. Mike Trout (LAA) - 169.0 PA - 115.5 JA Points
8. Joc Pederson (SF) - 118.0 PA - 111.19 JA Points
9. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 186.0 PA - 110.11 JA Points
10. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 142.0 PA - 109.86 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 114.6mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 113.7mph - double
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 113.7mph - field_out
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE) - 113.1mph - single
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 112.8mph - field_out
Mike Zunino (TB) - 112.4mph - nan
Brendan Rodgers (COL) - 112.2mph - double
C.J. Cron (COL) - 111.8mph - grounded_into_double_play
Carlos Santana (KC) - 111.1mph - field_out
Alex Verdugo (BOS) - 110.8mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Giancarlo Stanton - 66 PA, 42 BIP, 12 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 54 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 59 PA, 39 BIP, 9 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 51 PA, 26 BIP, 6 Brls, 23.1 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 53 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 83 PA, 57 BIP, 13 Brls, 22.8 Brl%
Trevor Story - 81 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Pete Alonso - 79 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Kole Calhoun - 70 PA, 44 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Mike Trout - 76 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 61 PA, 86 Swings, 94.2 Cont%
Jose Ramirez - 70 PA, 151 Swings, 92.7 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 73 PA, 102 Swings, 92.2 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 56 PA, 85 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 81 PA, 135 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 73 PA, 161 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Wander Franco - 69 PA, 137 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 53 PA, 89 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Freddie Freeman - 94 PA, 166 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
D.J. LeMahieu - 67 PA, 110 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Judge - 83 PA, 19.3 K%, 22.8 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 62 PA, 14.5 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Christian Walker - 81 PA, 17.3 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 53 PA, 17.0 K%, 22.9 Brl%
Josh Donaldson - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Taylor Ward - 50 PA, 18.0 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 66 PA, 18.2 K%, 17.9 Brl%
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