MLB Daily Notes: Friday, May 6
Nothing happened in my personal life yesterday that I can attempt to make comedy out of, so we’ll have to just get directly into baseball stuff. How lame.
The Brewers went absolutely bananas yesterday, hitting six homers on nine barrels. FOUR of those barrels were hit by Christian Yelich, which is crazy. We have only seen two other players go for three barrels in a single game this year, and Yelich went ahead and popped out four. Prior to yesterday, Yelich’s barrel rate was 14.8%, and that one performance brought it the whole way up to 20%.
On the pitching side of things, Shohei Ohtani put up another ridiculous line, scoring the second most JA points in a game this season. Here are the top five starts of the year by JA points:
Clayton Kershaw 4/13 - 109.5
Shohei Ohtani 5/5 - 107.0
Corbin Burnes 4/25 - 106.8
Shohei Ohtani 4/20 - 100.0
Max Scherzer 4/25 - 98.8
It is just insane how good he is when he has multiple pitches working, and he had four pitches working well for him yesterday. Put up another insane day with the slider (49% CSW%, 31% SwStr%), and he probably had his best fastball day as well (31% CSW%, 21% SwStr%), oh and then he mixed in 19 splitters and curveballs that all achieved more than a 60% CSW%. I don’t know if anybody else in the league has four pitches that are this good.
Ohtani is the new #1 JA pitcher, and he’s #117 of 236 hitters ranked (and that’s without steals being considered). If you have this dude in an ESPN daily lineups league (which I do…), you almost can’t lose when he does stuff like this. It’s amazing.
A couple of plugs from stuff I’ve written for RotoBaller this week:
Analyzing Changes to the Baseball
That second one is the article I alluded to on Tuesday, I took a look at how things have changed this year vs. the last four seasons - some interesting stuff there, check it out.
And if you haven’t listened to the new episode of the podcast yet, check that out as well!
Two new sheets for paid subscribers. I’ve applied the JA ranking models (hitters & pitchers) to TEAMS as well as players now, so you can get an idea of which teams are best and worst in terms of hitting and pitching. I’ve given all paid subs access to those files, here are the links (they’ll be in the list in the premium section moving forward)
JA Ranking Model - Team Hitting Ranks
JA Ranking Model - Team Pitching Ranks
Giving everybody a peak at the top and bottom hitting teams right now:
Decent resource to quickly see how good or bad of a matchup a certain offense is.
Alright here are the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 29.3 SwStr%, 46.5 CSW%
2. Chris Archer (MIN): 18.4 SwStr%, 34.2 CSW%
3. Tanner Houck (BOS): 10.7 SwStr%, 33.9 CSW%
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14.9 SwStr%, 33.7 CSW%
5. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 13.3 SwStr%, 32.7 CSW%
6. Shane McClanahan (TB): 9.3 SwStr%, 32.6 CSW%
7. Rich Hill (BOS): 13.2 SwStr%, 32.4 CSW%
8. Adrian Houser (MIL): 13.0 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
9. Tarik Skubal (DET): 16.7 SwStr%, 31.1 CSW%
10. Aaron Civale (CLE): 16.2 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Shohei Ohtani - 7.33 IP - 107.0 JA Points
2. Tarik Skubal - 5.67 IP - 64.5 JA Points
3. Aaron Civale - 5.67 IP - 53.75 JA Points
4. Aaron Nola - 7.0 IP - 46.5 JA Points
5. Jesus Luzardo - 6.0 IP - 46.0 JA Points
6. Adrian Houser - 5.0 IP - 45.75 JA Points
7. Robbie Ray - 6.67 IP - 45.5 JA Points
8. Chris Archer - 4.0 IP - 44.75 JA Points
9. Shane McClanahan - 5.33 IP - 39.25 JA Points
10. Rich Hill - 5.0 IP - 37.5 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 59.62 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 5.0 GS - 56.63 JA Points
3. Kevin Gausman (TOR) - 5.0 GS - 56.61 JA Points
4. Lucas Giolito (CWS) - 4.0 GS - 55.72 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 5.0 GS - 53.97 JA Points
6. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 6.0 GS - 53.12 JA Points
7. Garrett Whitlock (BOS) - 3.0 GS - 52.85 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 5.0 GS - 50.34 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 5.0 GS - 49.69 JA Points
10. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 5.0 GS - 48.59 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Nick Martinez's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 88.2
Nick Martinez's SI velo (14 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 93.7
Aaron Sanchez's CU velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 78.5
Antonio Senzatela's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 75.8
Aaron Sanchez's FF velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 91.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's CU usage (32.3%) up 13.7 points
Aaron Nola's SI usage (29.7%) up 13.7 points
Aaron Sanchez's CH usage (16.7%) up 12.3 points
Jesus Luzardo's CH usage (21.4%) up 12.9 points
Jose Berrios's SI usage (31.7%) up 10.1 points
Jose Berrios's CH usage (22.0%) up 12.9 points
Rich Hill's SL usage (20.6%) up 15.0 points
Spenser Watkins's FC usage (36.8%) up 14.9 points
Tanner Houck's SL usage (55.4%) up 23.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 37.7% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 78 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 90 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 77 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Eric Lauer - 74 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Joe Ryan - 87 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 87 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 92 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Jordan Montgomery - 85 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 87 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 41.3% K%
Eric Lauer - 74 TBF, 39.2% K%
Shane McClanahan - 90 TBF, 35.6% K%
Kevin Gausman - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Nestor Cortes - 81 TBF, 32.1% K%
Carlos Rodon - 91 TBF, 31.9% K%
Aaron Nola - 92 TBF, 31.5% K%
Kyle Wright - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Freddy Peralta - 83 TBF, 28.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 37.3% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 77 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Eric Lauer - 74 TBF, 35.1% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 90 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 26.6% K-BB%
Tarik Skubal - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Kyle Wright - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 87 TBF, 24.1% K-BB%
Nestor Cortes - 81 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 74 TBF, 64.4% GB%
Adam Wainwright - 96 TBF, 64.3% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 90 TBF, 61.1% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Mitch Keller - 84 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Dakota Hudson - 87 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 76 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Matt Brash - 74 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Martin Perez - 89 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Nick Martinez - 91 TBF, 55.6% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 92 TBF, 31.5 K%, 3.3 BB%, 51.7% GB%
Corbin Burnes - 75 TBF, 41.3 K%, 4.0 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Dylan Cease - 94 TBF, 33.0 K%, 6.4 BB%, 46.4% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 83 TBF, 28.9 K%, 7.2 BB%, 48.1% GB%
Garrett Whitlock - 59 TBF, 39.0 K%, 5.1 BB%, 54.5% GB%
Kevin Gausman - 77 TBF, 35.1 K%, 0.0 BB%, 48.0% GB%
Kyle Wright - 100 TBF, 31.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 55.0% GB%
Pablo Lopez - 87 TBF, 27.6 K%, 5.7 BB%, 46.6% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 90 TBF, 35.6 K%, 4.4 BB%, 61.1% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 91 TBF, 28.6 K%, 2.2 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Yu Darvish - 74 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.4 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Multiple Barrels
Christian Yelich (MIL) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 4 Barrels, 1 HR
Alejandro Kirk (TOR) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Juan Soto (WSH) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Manny Machado (SD) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Starling Marte (NYM) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Willy Adames (MIL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Christian Yelich - 5.0 PA - 78.0 JA Points
2. Willy Adames - 5.0 PA - 74.0 JA Points
3. Juan Soto - 5.0 PA - 74.0 JA Points
4. Manny Machado - 4.0 PA - 57.0 JA Points
5. Alejandro Kirk - 4.0 PA - 51.0 JA Points
6. Jorge Mateo - 3.0 PA - 46.0 JA Points
7. Starling Marte - 5.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
8. Ryan Mountcastle - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
9. Gary Sanchez - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 86.0 PA - 171.16 JA Points
2. Mike Trout (LAA) - 93.0 PA - 151.83 JA Points
3. Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 109.0 PA - 150.83 JA Points
4. Rowdy Tellez (MIL) - 87.0 PA - 131.49 JA Points
5. Taylor Ward (LAA) - 82.0 PA - 130.24 JA Points
6. Juan Soto (WSH) - 119.0 PA - 127.73 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 91.0 PA - 127.47 JA Points
8. Nolan Arenado (STL) - 100.0 PA - 125.2 JA Points
9. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 102.0 PA - 123.14 JA Points
10. J.P. Crawford (SEA) - 108.0 PA - 115.19 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 113.6mph - double
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 112.8mph - home_run
Jorge Alfaro (SD) - 111.6mph - grounded_into_double_play
Bryce Harper (PHI) - 111.5mph - home_run
Jesus Aguilar (MIA) - 111.1mph - foul
Tommy Edman (STL) - 110.5mph - field_out
Luis Urias (MIL) - 109.7mph - home_run
Starling Marte (NYM) - 109.5mph - home_run
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 109.2mph - single
Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 109.2mph - home_run
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Aaron Judge - 71 PA, 40 BIP, 13 Brls, 32.5 Brl%
Mike Trout - 69 PA, 40 BIP, 12 Brls, 30.0 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 62 PA, 33 BIP, 9 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Willy Adames - 84 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 66 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 70 PA, 47 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.4 Brl%
Christian Yelich - 75 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Jeremy Pena - 72 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Bryce Harper - 80 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Austin Riley - 79 PA, 51 BIP, 10 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 65 PA, 111 Swings, 91.0 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 60 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Myles Straw - 81 PA, 129 Swings, 88.4 Cont%
Austin Meadows - 68 PA, 111 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 76 PA, 131 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Wander Franco - 73 PA, 132 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Michael Brantley - 73 PA, 129 Swings, 86.8 Cont%
Adam Frazier - 81 PA, 153 Swings, 86.3 Cont%
Ty France - 84 PA, 178 Swings, 86.0 Cont%
Yuli Gurriel - 77 PA, 134 Swings, 85.8 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Freddie Freeman - 72 PA, 15.3 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Juan Soto - 84 PA, 16.7 K%, 15.1 Brl%
Max Kepler - 71 PA, 16.9 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 23.4 Brl%
Okay now to the paid stuff. For $5/month or $40/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to
Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)
Weekly Projections for next week (this is updated on weekends for the following full week)
Daily hitter matchup ratings
Plate Discipline leaderboard
More Magic Formula Qualifiers
Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker
Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports
Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings
More stuff added every week