MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Data Warehouse

MLB Daily Notes: Friday, September 2

Jon A's avatar
Jon A
Sep 02, 2022
∙ Paid
Share

Introduction / Explanation For New Readers

Not a ton of time today but we have to talk briefly about what Spencer Strider did last night.

8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 16 K, 0 BB, 52.8 DK Pts

That’s the highest DraftKings score of the season, here are the rest of the top five:

  1. Spencer Strider 9/1: 52.8

  2. Shohei Ohtani 6/22: 46.2

  3. Carlos Rodon 7/9: 45.8

  4. Aaron Nola 8/25: 45.8

  5. Clayton Kershaw 4/13: 45.8

He threw 106 pitches and got 22 whiffs. It was an insane start, and a high point of an insane season for Strider that pretty much came out of nowhere.

His four-seamer has a 14.5% SwStr%, the second-best number (Cristian Javier) among pitchers who have thrown at least 1,000 of them.

His slider has a 24.7% SwStr%, the second-highest mark among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 sliders (Andres Munoz).

He has two of the best pitches in the league, especially if you’re just looking at starters, and the strikeouts are going to continue to come in bunches. He might be a little overdrafted next year because of these headline-generating strikeout totals, but man you have profited greatly if you got your hands on him early on this season.


I’m revamping the NCAAF dashboard, so I’ll get that out to you all later today - it’s going to be a different link to it because I found a sweet data API that will work way better and give us way more information. So that’s what I’m going to get back to work on right now. Have a great long weekend everybody!


CSW% Leaders - Yesterday

1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 20.8 SwStr%, 41.5 CSW%
2. Paolo Espino (WSH): 16.7 SwStr%, 37.9 CSW%
3. Shane Bieber (CLE): 19.2 SwStr%, 36.5 CSW%
4. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 20.2 SwStr%, 33.3 CSW%
5. Chris Bassitt (NYM): 7.8 SwStr%, 31.1 CSW%
6. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 15.4 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
7. Glenn Otto (TEX): 13.6 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
8. Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 17.6 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
9. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 12.4 SwStr%, 28.9 CSW%
10. Chad Kuhl (COL): 11.5 SwStr%, 28.7 CSW%

Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday

1. Spencer Strider - 8.0 IP - 130.75 JA Points
2. Logan Gilbert - 6.0 IP - 81.25 JA Points
3. Shane Bieber - 7.0 IP - 73.0 JA Points
4. Merrill Kelly - 7.0 IP - 68.75 JA Points
5. Glenn Otto - 5.0 IP - 52.75 JA Points
6. Kyle Bradish - 7.0 IP - 46.5 JA Points
7. Johnny Cueto - 5.33 IP - 45.0 JA Points
8. Paolo Espino - 5.0 IP - 40.75 JA Points
9. Clayton Kershaw - 5.0 IP - 40.25 JA Points
10. Caleb Smith - 2.0 IP - 39.5 JA Points

Pitcher JA Scores - Season

1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 17.0 GS - 57.59 JA Points
2. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 24.0 GS - 51.93 JA Points
3. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 26.0 GS - 51.66 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 22.0 GS - 50.86 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 26.0 GS - 49.14 JA Points
6. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 26.0 GS - 48.08 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 27.0 GS - 47.51 JA Points
8. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 19.0 GS - 47.14 JA Points
9. Blake Snell (SD) - 18.0 GS - 45.64 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 20.0 GS - 45.34 JA Points

Velo Changes - Yesterday

Chris Bassitt's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 4.7mph to 83.4
Daniel Mengden's CU velo (12 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 73.2
Johnny Cueto's CH velo (12 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 84.4
Daniel Mengden's FC velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 88.3
Glenn Otto's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.7
Johnny Cueto's SL velo (12 pitches) DOWN -3.7mph to 80.0

Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday

Johnny Cueto's FF usage (34.0%) up 17.5 points
Logan Gilbert's FF usage (66.3%) up 11.8 points
Rich Hill's FC usage (25.8%) up 16.2 points
Shane Bieber's FC usage (28.8%) up 15.7 points
Spencer Strider's SL usage (39.6%) up 11.1 points

CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Jacob deGrom - 92 TBF, 38.6% CSW%
Andrew Heaney - 81 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 108 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Jakob Junis - 73 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Bailey Falter - 69 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 101 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Ross Stripling - 70 TBF, 33.2% CSW%

K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Andrew Heaney - 81 TBF, 40.7% K%
Jacob deGrom - 92 TBF, 40.2% K%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 37.5% K%
Robbie Ray - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Blake Snell - 88 TBF, 33.0% K%
Carlos Rodon - 93 TBF, 32.3% K%
Cristian Javier - 79 TBF, 31.6% K%

K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Andrew Heaney - 81 TBF, 38.3% K-BB%
Jacob deGrom - 92 TBF, 38.0% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 94 TBF, 34.0% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 72 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Drew Rasmussen - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Robbie Ray - 71 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 110 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%

GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks

Shane McClanahan - 76 TBF, 68.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 85 TBF, 67.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 98 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 98 TBF, 64.9% GB%
Alex Cobb - 73 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Max Fried - 76 TBF, 63.8% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 96 TBF, 60.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 108 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 68 TBF, 56.8% GB%
Kyle Wright - 75 TBF, 56.0% GB%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks

Aaron Ashby - 45 TBF, 28.9 K%, 4.4 BB%, 66.7% GB%
David Peterson - 46 TBF, 28.3 K%, 4.3 BB%, 45.2% GB%
George Kirby - 95 TBF, 27.4 K%, 3.2 BB%, 55.4% GB%
JT Brubaker - 52 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 60.0% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 68 TBF, 27.9 K%, 7.4 BB%, 56.8% GB%
Jordan Montgomery - 97 TBF, 27.8 K%, 3.1 BB%, 48.5% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 74 TBF, 31.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, 51.1% GB%
Kyle Wright - 75 TBF, 28.0 K%, 5.3 BB%, 56.0% GB%
Lance Lynn - 93 TBF, 31.2 K%, 2.2 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Luis Castillo - 72 TBF, 33.3 K%, 4.2 BB%, 51.2% GB%
Ross Stripling - 70 TBF, 27.1 K%, 1.4 BB%, 54.0% GB%
Shane Bieber - 108 TBF, 27.8 K%, 3.7 BB%, 58.1% GB%
Zac Gallen - 93 TBF, 33.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 52.6% GB%

Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career

Aaron Nola - +3.0% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Michael Wacha - +3.1% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Zac Gallen - +3.6% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Lance Lynn - +4.7% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Matt Manning - +4.4% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Andrew Heaney - +5.9% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +5.5% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Jose Berrios - +4.9% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Kyle Gibson - +2.2% CSW%, -2.5 BB%
Jakob Junis - +3.3% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Dean Kremer - +3.0% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Luis Castillo - +2.3% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Ross Stripling - +4.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Bailey Falter - +3.3% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Chase De Jong - +7.8% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
JT Brubaker - +5.0% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Daniel Norris - +2.7% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Jason Alexander - +4.0% CSW%, -4.3 BB%

Multiple Barrels

A.J. Pollock (CWS) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR

Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday

1. Christian Walker - 4.0 PA - 53.0 JA Points
2. Joey Meneses - 6.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
3. A.J. Pollock - 4.0 PA - 45.0 JA Points
4. Alex Verdugo - 5.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
5. Michael Massey - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
6. Julio Rodriguez - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
7. Justin Turner - 4.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
8. Cristian Pache - 3.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
9. James McCann - 3.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
10. Vimael Machin - 5.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points

Hitter JA Scores - Season

1. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 549.0 PA - 136.61 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (SD) - 537.0 PA - 136.09 JA Points
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 445.0 PA - 135.46 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 542.0 PA - 111.29 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 574.0 PA - 110.38 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 435.0 PA - 105.75 JA Points
7. Bryce Harper (PHI) - 295.0 PA - 104.95 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 482.0 PA - 103.32 JA Points
9. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 534.0 PA - 99.48 JA Points
10. Will Smith (LAD) - 464.0 PA - 92.84 JA Points

Hardest Hit Balls

Nathaniel Lowe (TEX) - 112.8mph - foul
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 110.5mph - home_run
Hunter Renfroe (MIL) - 110.4mph - single
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 109.9mph - home_run
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) - 109.2mph - field_out
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 109.2mph - home_run
Francisco Lindor (NYM) - 108.6mph - single
Rougned Odor (BAL) - 108.3mph - foul
Anthony Santander (BAL) - 107.8mph - field_out
Austin Riley (ATL) - 107.6mph - home_run

Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders

Michael Massey - 65 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Evan Longoria - 46 PA, 29 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.7 Brl%
Luke Voit - 64 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
Matt Olson - 86 PA, 65 BIP, 12 Brls, 18.5 Brl%
Keston Hiura - 50 PA, 27 BIP, 5 Brls, 18.5 Brl%
Oneil Cruz - 61 PA, 28 BIP, 5 Brls, 17.9 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 66 PA, 34 BIP, 6 Brls, 17.6 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 40 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.5 Brl%
Eugenio Suarez - 72 PA, 40 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.5 Brl%

Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders

Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 0.468 xwOBA
Albert Pujols - 57 PA, 0.434 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Michael Harris II - 78 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Yandy Diaz - 77 PA, 0.417 xwOBA
Matt Olson - 86 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 79 PA, 0.416 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 0.415 xwOBA
Jose Altuve - 72 PA, 0.411 xwOBA
Tyler O'Neill - 78 PA, 0.407 xwOBA

Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders

Luis Arraez - 80 PA, 132 Swings, 93.9 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 67 PA, 120 Swings, 93.3 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 50 PA, 83 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 60 PA, 88 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 80 PA, 117 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 79 PA, 134 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 79 PA, 140 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 66 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 64 PA, 116 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 61 PA, 113 Swings, 87.6 Cont%

Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks

Albert Pujols - 57 PA, 15.8 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Emmanuel Rivera - 64 PA, 18.8 K%, 14.6 Brl%
Jose Altuve - 72 PA, 18.1 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Juan Soto - 70 PA, 14.3 K%, 15.9 Brl%
Matt Olson - 86 PA, 17.4 K%, 18.5 Brl%
Mookie Betts - 83 PA, 15.7 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Nathaniel Lowe - 82 PA, 17.1 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Tyler O'Neill - 78 PA, 16.7 K%, 17.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 85 PA, 10.6 K%, 16.7 Brl%

Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career

Hunter Renfroe - +9.7% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -5.3 Chase%
Manny Machado - +9.3% Contact%, +5.7 mph exit velo, -5.5 Chase%
Josh Bell - +7.4% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -14.8 Chase%
Kolten Wong - +3.4% Contact%, +5.6 mph exit velo, -7.4 Chase%
Nathaniel Lowe - +7.5% Contact%, +5.8 mph exit velo, -7.0 Chase%
Seiya Suzuki - +9.6% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -6.1 Chase%
Ha-Seong Kim - +5.8% Contact%, +7.0 mph exit velo, -3.1 Chase%
Tyler O'Neill - +5.9% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -13.7 Chase%
Eugenio Suarez - +9.0% Contact%, +6.4 mph exit velo, -10.9 Chase%
Brian Anderson - +10.7% Contact%, +3.1 mph exit velo, -7.7 Chase%
Yandy Diaz - +4.7% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -3.8 Chase%
William Contreras - +5.1% Contact%, +10.4 mph exit velo, -3.1 Chase%

Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days

Alex Bregman - 0.389 xwOBA, 10.5% Brl%, 83.5% Contact%, 18.5% Chase%, 11.3% K%
Corey Seager - 0.389 xwOBA, 13.0% Brl%, 77.9% Contact%, 25.0% Chase%, 11.9% K%
Lars Nootbaar - 0.398 xwOBA, 15.6% Brl%, 81.6% Contact%, 18.5% Chase%, 12.1% K%
Manny Machado - 0.395 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 79.8% Contact%, 18.6% Chase%, 15.4% K%
Nathaniel Lowe - 0.527 xwOBA, 23.8% Brl%, 84.2% Contact%, 24.0% Chase%, 17.2% K%
Seiya Suzuki - 0.431 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 85.6% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 13.0% K%

Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks

P.J. Higgins - 37.3% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.961 Cold Rating
Jeremy Pena - 39.2% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.911 Cold Rating
Seth Brown - 37.2% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.906 Cold Rating
Andrew McCutchen - 32.4% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 38.0% Whiff%, 70.4% Weak%, 0.88 Cold Rating
Amed Rosario - 31.8% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 31.2% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.867 Cold Rating
Trea Turner - 31.8% Whiff%, 72.1% Weak%, 0.86 Cold Rating
Daulton Varsho - 28.1% Whiff%, 82.1% Weak%, 0.858 Cold Rating
Jose Barrero - 28.3% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.851 Cold Rating

Now to the paid stuff. For $7/month or $70/year you get access to a bunch of extra goodies, including, but not limited to

  • NFL Dashboards, Notes, Reports, Write-Ups, and Projections!!

  • Minor League Stat Dashboards

  • Daily Projections (with DraftKings salaries & scores) Excel & a Tableau Dashboard)

  • Strikeout Prop Model Comparisons. Compares my K projection with FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook betting lines

  • My personal DraftKings player pools and cash lineups (not every day but when I have time!)

  • Daily hitter matchup ratings

  • Plate Discipline leaderboard

  • More Magic Formula Qualifiers

  • Pitch Mix and Velo Changes Tracker

  • Full daily and season-long pitcher and hitter data reports

  • Full access to my daily-updated algorithmic hitter and pitcher rankings

  • Offseason reviews & previews of every single fantasy-relevant player

  • More stuff added throughout the year as ideas come to me


Premium Features - SAMPLES

Here are some samples of what you get with the paid subscription, for anybody on the fence!

SAMPLE Hitter Projections

SAMPLE Pitcher Projections

SAMPLE K Prop Comparison Sheet

SAMPLE JA Algorithm - Season Hitter Ranks

SAMPLE DraftKings Hitter Scoring Analysis

SAMPLE JA Model Boom Scores

You get all of that updated daily (projections updated throughout the day as lineups come out) for just $7/month or $70/year - along with a ton more stuff.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Jon A
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture