MLB Daily Notes - July 15th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
We will do a first half recap here, but first, a few notes on what went down yesterday.
Pitcher Review - Yesterday
Blake Snell got his first good start of the year in just in time for him to get another break. 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 8 K, 0 BB, 26.2% SwStr%, 52.5% Strike%. Good to see that, and you have to wonder now if Snell won’t go on one of those classic Snell stretches where he’s one of the most dominant starters in the league in July/August.
Carlos Rodon had another nice 16.3% SwStr% and 50% Strike%, but it came with a 41% Ball% and he could only get through four innings on 98 pitches. He walked three. Very up-and-down, but mostly down, first-half for Rodon.
Zac Gallen got thumped for nine hits and six earned runs on just a 5.7% SwStr% on his 70 pitches. He’s had his share of bad outings, but I would still be buying low on him if possible for the second half - the long track record he’s given us matters most here.
German Marquez returned! Remember that guy? That was his first Major League start since August 26th, 2023. He’s not a relevant name for fantasy, given that he’s on the Rockies, but it was fun to see him back. He had an unbelievably good second half for the Rockies in 2018, and it looked like he might be the first one since Ubaldo Jimenez to be able to figure out Coors, but everything after that was awful. Good memories. He did come out of the gates hot yesterday, averaging 96.1 on his four-seamer and putting up nice whiff rates on both the slider and curveball. He’s a talented arm and could be worth a stream or two in road starts in the second half.
56% Strike% for Joey Estes. ah hah!
Hitter Review - Yesterday
It seemed like the pitchers were more ready for a break than the hitters yesterday, because we saw a new record 51 homers on the day.
Nine hitters had multiple homers:
Lawrence Butler: 3
Michael Toglia: 3
Christopher Morel: 2
Seth Brown: 2
Josh Smith: 2
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2
Brent Rooker: 2
Travis d’Arnaud: 2
Ezequiel Tovar: 2
Very interesting names there. The most interesting of which would be Butler. He has put together quite a month of July.
July Homer Leaders:
Trea Turner 8
Brenton Doyle 8
Michael Toglia 7
Lawrence Butler 7
Cal Raleigh 6
Brent Rooker 6
Ben Rice 6
Butler is hitting .317/.349/.854 this month (1.202 OPS) with a 26% K%. On the season, it’s a much more cool .206/.275/.400 line with a .675 OPS.
As for Toglia, he now has a .503 SLG on the year in 192 PAs. That’s a very strong SLG. The batting average is .197, which makes him a tough sell for fantasy (but it also makes the SLG even more impressive). He’s homered 16 times for an elite 12 PA/HR on an 18% Brl%. That is the best home run rate in the league for hitters above 150 PAs.
You already know what the problem is, strikeouts! He has a 31% K% and 69% Contact% on the year. The .241 xBA is encouraging. The optimistic second-half view for him would be that he hits 10 more homers with a .240 batting average and drives in enough runs to not kill you there, but there won’t be steals, there won’t be a lot of run-scoring, and the batting average is very unlikely to do anything but hurt your fantasy team.
First Half Review
I’m not sure which direction this is going to go; I’m just going to start throwing some leaderboards up and then add whatever commentary I have that tickles me at that moment.
Player Rater
Catchers
William Contreras
Cal Raleigh
Adley Rutschman
Salvador Perez
Will Smith
Shea Langeliers
Logan O’Hoppe
Ryan Jeffers
Yainer Diaz
Tyler Stephenson
Playing time is king for player rater analysis. It takes a good bit of playing time to even qualify, so if there are any names here that you don’t see - that could explain it.
Playing time is even more important at the catcher position where even in the best players in the league sit twice per week. Only four catchers have 300+ at-bats: Contreras (377), Rutschman (363), Perez (344), and Smith (301).
The late surge has come from Raleigh, who has homered six times in July to get him to 20 at the break.
First Base
Walker
Naylor
Freeman
Alonso
Guerrero
Pasquantino
Mountcastle
Goldschmidt
Miranda
Olson
It has definitely been a strange year at the first base position. Olson’s 13 homers and .229 batting average has sunk a good number of teams. There are no shocking names here though besides possibly Miranda, who has done that in a shorter sample and is now injured.
Second Base
Marte
Altuve
Semien
Cronenworth
Gorman
Albies
India
Gimenez
Rengifo
Busch
There are no huge performances at the second base position. Ketel Marte has been the clear front-runner with 19 homers and a fantastic .295 batting average. The age is showing with Altuve and Semien, and after the first 3-4 guys this year, it was a pretty steep fall-off. If you locked in Ketel as your second baseman, you’re well ahead of the rest of your league there (especially given the ADP)
Third Base
Henderson
Ramirez
Devers
Steer
Bohm
Chapman
Westburg
Rafaela
Machado
McMahon
There are a lot of guys not showing here because I only assign one position per play on my player rater. So you’ll see some names on the shortstop list that you might have expected here.
Nobody here has been great across the board. We have a mix of low steals, low batting averages, and only one real standout in the home runs category (Devers with 23). Some pretty disappointing first halves from Machado and Austin Riley, although Riley has started to come around lately.
The Riley story reinforces the risk of taking a guy that doesn’t steal bags. Any kind of down year on the power front craters them in a hurry as far as roto production goes.
Shortstop
Witt Jr.
De La Cruz
Lindor
Adames
Abrams
Turang
Seager
Turner
Tatis Jr.
Correa
Lots of injury implications here. Trea Turner has been fantastic (.349 average, 11 homers, 12 steals in 238 ABs), but missed more than a month early on.
Elly has pretty much had the season the optimists were predicting. The 46 steals is enough to be a top player on its own, and adding 17 homers and a .256 batting average makes him a clear round-one player if drafts were today.
Abrams has quietly gotten to a 15-15 season so far, and that’s with a couple of big slumps involved.
Outfield
Ohtani
Judge
Soto
Ozuna
Harper
Rooker
Alvarez
Nimmo
Schwarber
Doyle
Duran
Reynolds
Santander
Hernandez
Profar
Greene
Yelich
Burleson
Happ
Morel
Ohtani is homeless position-wise, so we count him as an outfielder. He has 29 homers, 22 steals, 75 runs, 69 RBI, and a .319 batting average. Just silliness.
That overshadows Judge’s 34 homers a bit, another ridiculous number.
The surprises are Rooker (21 homers and .291 batting average - nobody saw that second part coming), Doyle (15 homers, 20 steals, .273 batting average), Profar, Burleson, and maybe Happ. Lots of like in the outfield.
How you handle outfield in fantasy is really league-dependent. Some leagues roll with 15 teams and five outfielders on each starting lineup, and some leagues are ten team, three-outfielder leagues. Wildly different setups there, so you really have to be conscious of that. In the latter type of league, you can typically build a pretty competitive outfield from the waiver wire after the season gets rolling, but in the former type of league, if you don’t get your hands on a couple of stud outfielders, you’re in trouble.
Starting Pitcher
Sale
Skubal
Gilbert
Wheeler
Glasnow
Wheeler
Nola
Lugo
Cease
Suarez
Burnes
Crochet
Kirby
Blanco
Houck
Gil
Ryan
S Gray
Ragans
K Crawford
Castillo
Flaherty
H Greene
G Rodriguez
Bibee
The teams who got their hands on Garrett Crochet in those first couple of weeks gave themselves a huge boost. Finding that free ace in April is a huge key to success in the fantasy game. It looked like we had multiple of those types early on with Jared Jones, Luis Gil, and Crochet all rolling. But Crochet was the only one to maintain that production.
There aren’t a ton of surprises in the top 25. Certainly didn’t expect to see Seth Lugo here. He’s won 11 games with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Very good, but also a good amount of luck going into that given his low strikeout rate.
Blanco, Houck, Suarez, and Crawford have also been pleasant surprises. I can’t say I’m buying on any of them for the second half, besides possibly Crawford.
We have a problem with recency bias on the SP front. My second-half SP rankings wouldn’t be much different than my pre-season ones after accounting for injuries. Always consider the bigger sample over the small one.
The one thing we haven’t seen much of is the impact rookie so far. Pretty much all of the rookie arms have come up and struggled, save Paul Skenes.
We’ll get to a lot more first half recap and second half preview in the next few days as I’m blasting out as much useful content as possible during these down days.
Category Leaders
HRs
Judge 34
Ohtani 29
Henderson 28
Ozuna 26
Santander 24
Devers 23
Soto 23
Ramirez 23
Naylor 22
Walker 22
Harper 21
Rooker 21
Raleigh 20
Runs
Henderson 78
Ohtani 75
Soto 75
Witt Jr. 75
Judge 73
Ramirez 70
Contreras 65
Schwarber 65
K Marte 64
De La Cruz 64
Chapman 63
Lindor 63
Devers 62
Duran 62
Volpe 62
Notice that almost all of those names are on winning teams. Team context is really important in run scoring.
RBIs
Judge 85
Ozuna 77
Ramirez 77
Naylor 70
Bohm 70
Ohtani 69
Adames 67
Soto 66
Walker 66
Henderson 63
Nimmo 63
Witt Jr. 63
Pasquantino 62
Hernandez 62
S Perez 62
Rooker 62
More of the same on the team context front. The Soto addition to the Yankees lineup has been so good for Judge, and it’s even helped Volpe end up with a useful first-half despite an egregious last month of it.
SBs
De La Cruz 46
Turang 30
Caballero 24
Thomas 23
Hamilton 23
Ohtani 22
Rengifo 22
Duran 22
Stott 22
Witt Jr. 22
M Garcia 21
Yelich 21
J Young 20
Doyle 20
Six of these guys were free in drafts or on waivers. It’s never been super hard to find a cheap steals contributor. What has been tough is to find one that can do anything else for you. Turang and Doyle have been the key pickups in that sense. They’ve both had solid across-the-board seasons while carrying you in steals.
Wins
Sale 13
Lugo 11
G Rodriguez 11
Nola 11
Wheeler 10
Skubal 10
R Suarez 10
Keller 10
Gil 10
Bello 10
Wins are not predictive, but they are really important in roto fantasy baseball. The shocking name here is Bello, who has not pitched well (5.32 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). I suppose it’s also somewhat surprising to see a Pirate on here. I believe the Pirates are the only team represented here not above the .500 mark - so some good luck for Keller there in terms of pitching at the right time.
ERA (10 GS minimum)
Lopez 1.88
Skenes 1.90
T Williams 2.22
Skubal 2.41
Burnes 2.50
Schmidt 2.52
Lugo 2.55
Blanco 2.56
Houck 2.62
Wheeler 2.70
Sale .270
Gilbert 2.79
A Suarez 2.81
C Sanchez 2.87
Stone 2.89
Plenty of surprising names here as well. It would probably take 3-4 full seasons for ERA to stabilize, so you get some real wonky results looking at just three months.
WHIP (10 GS minimum)
Gilbert .87
Skubal .88
Skenes .92
Glasnow .93
Steele .95
Sale .95
Crochet .97
Blanco .97
Flaherty .98
Wheeler .99
Kirby .99
Ryan 1.00
Crawford 1.03
Houck 1.03
Nola 1.04
Eovaldi 1.04
R Suarez 1.04
This is less “weird” than ERA. By that I mean there are fewer “wtf” names. And that makes sense, because WHP is more in the pitcher’s control than ERA is. The pitchers that are here without fantastic K-BB numbers (red flags!) would be Steele (18%), Blanco (14%), Crawford (18%), Houck 918%), Eovaldi (18%), and Suarez (19%).
Strikeouts Leaders
Cease 149
Crochet 146
Glasnow 143
Ragans 141
Skubal 140
Sale 140
Peralta 130
King 129
Wheeler 126
Greene 126
Gilbert 124
Ryan 124
Bibee 123
S Gray 121
Lopez 121
Flaherty 119
Gil 118
Kikuchi 117
Lugo 116
This has a lot to do with volume. The biggest predictor of strikeouts is innings pitched. The pitchers listed here below a 28% K%: King (27.6%),Wheeler (27.0%), H Greene (27.6%), Gilbert (24.8%), Ryan (27.0%), Lopez (27.9%), Kikuchi (26.0%), (Lugo 22.6%)
Saves Leaders
Helsley 32
Clase 29
Finnegan 25
R Suarez 22
Holmes 21
Hader 18
McArthur 17
Miller 15
Munoz 15
Scott 14
Alvarado 13
The top dog is doubling up everybody but six other names. If you drafted Helsley or Clase, you’re doing fine in saves. If you drafted them both, you’re laughing. In a roto league, you might even consider shipping one of them away for help in another category that you need - you probably have a big lead in saves. Remember that in roto, winning a category by 1 or by 100 is the same thing. Doesn’t do you any good to win by a ton - so keep things evened out.
I want to get working on some other stuff, so I’m going to wrap it up now. The normal reports from yesterday are below. Be back soon with much more!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell
2. Carson Fulmer
3. Joey Estes
4. Logan Gilbert
5. Max Scherzer
6. Ryan Pepiot
7. Miles Mikolas
8. Brayan Bello
9. Carlos Rodon
10. Nick Lodolo
11. Ben Lively
12. Jose Quintana
13. Chris Paddack
14. Brady Singer
15. Chris Sale
16. Ronel Blanco
17. Mitch Keller
18. German Marquez
19. Trevor Rogers
20. Jameson Taillon
21. Dean Kremer
22. Randy Vasquez
23. Yusei Kikuchi
24. Jake Irvin
25. Zac Gallen
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Logan Gilbert (vs. LAA): 32.55 Points
2. Blake Snell (vs. MIN): 31.15 Points
3. Ryan Pepiot (vs. CLE): 24.3 Points
4. Carson Fulmer (vs. SEA): 23.91 Points
5. Colin Rea (vs. WSH): 23.16 Points
6. Joey Estes (vs. PHI): 20.5 Points
7. Ben Lively (vs. TB): 18.99 Points
8. Kenta Maeda (vs. LAD): 17.66 Points
9. Chris Sale (vs. SD): 17.65 Points
10. Chris Paddack (vs. SF): 17.65 Points
####Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell (SF): 21 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
2. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 16 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. Carson Fulmer (LAA): 15 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
4. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
5. Jose Quintana (NYM): 14 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
6. Brayan Bello (BOS): 13 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
7. Brady Singer (KC): 12 Whiffs (74 Pitches)
8. Chris Paddack (MIN): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
9. Ronel Blanco (HOU): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
10. Max Scherzer (TEX): 12 Whiffs (71 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Carson Fulmer (LAA): 57.1 Strike%, 32.5 Ball%
2. Joey Estes (OAK): 56.0 Strike%, 25.3 Ball%
3. Ben Lively (CLE): 53.9 Strike%, 30.3 Ball%
4. Blake Snell (SF): 52.5 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
5. Max Scherzer (TEX): 52.1 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
6. Chris Sale (ATL): 51.9 Strike%, 30.4 Ball%
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 51.7 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
8. Kenta Maeda (DET): 50.9 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
9. Chris Paddack (MIN): 50.0 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
10. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 50.0 Strike%, 40.8 Ball%
11. Colin Rea (MIL): 50.0 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
12. Nick Lodolo (CIN): 48.6 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
13. Ryan Pepiot (TB): 46.9 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
14. Brady Singer (KC): 45.9 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
15. Miles Mikolas (STL): 45.8 Strike%, 25.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Blake Snell: 80 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.81 POUT
2. Logan Gilbert: 87 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.14 POUT
3. Miles Mikolas: 72 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.5 POUT
4. Ryan Pepiot: 81 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.5 POUT
5. Brayan Bello: 85 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.72 POUT
6. Ben Lively: 76 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.75 POUT
7. Randy Vasquez: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
8. Ronel Blanco: 90 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.0 POUT
9. Kenta Maeda: 55 Pitches, 11 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Joey Estes: 91 Pitches, 18 Outs, 5.06 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Kenta Maeda's FF velo (17 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 92.9
Kenta Maeda's FS velo (17 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 85.9
Nick Lodolo's CU velo (25 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.7
Logan Gilbert's CU velo (13 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.9
Carlos Rodon's FF velo (37 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 97.1
Dean Kremer's SI velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.5
Logan Gilbert's FF velo (27 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 97.3
Kenta Maeda's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 83.3
Chad Kuhl's FC velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.3
Blake Snell's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.8
Chris Paddack's FF velo (41 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 91.5
Mitch Keller's ST velo (12 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 81.0
Trevor Rogers's SL velo (17 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 80.3
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Ben Lively's SI usage (38.2%) up 11.2 points
Blake Snell's CU usage (35.0%) up 15.0 points
Brady Singer's FF usage (29.7%) up 24.2 points
Carlos Rodon's SL usage (40.8%) up 12.4 points
Chad Kuhl's CH usage (21.4%) up 14.3 points
Chad Kuhl's FC usage (17.1%) up 13.0 points
Dean Kremer's FS usage (19.3%) up 14.7 points
Jose Quintana's CU usage (34.9%) up 12.8 points
Miles Mikolas's FF usage (43.1%) up 17.3 points
Mitch Keller's SL usage (21.1%) up 17.2 points
Ryan Yarbrough's SI usage (49.2%) up 12.8 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +22.0%
Luis Severino Sinker: +20.9%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -18.4%
James Paxton 4-Seam Fastball: -18.2%
Nick Lodolo Sinker: +16.5%
Luis Gil Slider: +15.3%
Logan Webb Changeup: -15.0%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +14.8%
Hunter Brown Sinker: +14.6%
Tanner Bibee Curveball: +14.4%
Carlos Rodon 4-Seam Fastball: -14.2%
Albert Suarez Cutter: -14.1%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.1%
Adam Mazur 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Spencer Arrighetti Cutter: -13.4%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +13.4%
Trevor Rogers 4-Seam Fastball: +13.1%
Kyle Harrison 4-Seam Fastball: -12.8%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +12.7%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +12.5%
Spencer Schwellenbach Sinker: +12.2%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kutter Crawford - 70 TBF, 39.0% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 38.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 36.0% CSW%
Bailey Ober - 70 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Michael King - 67 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Logan Webb - 76 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Luis L. Ortiz - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Chris Sale - 91 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
Nick Pivetta - 71 TBF, 32.2% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Paul Skenes - 74 TBF, 37.8% K%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 36.5% K%
Chris Sale - 91 TBF, 36.3% K%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 36.3% K%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Nick Pivetta - 71 TBF, 33.8% K%
Taj Bradley - 95 TBF, 33.7% K%
Bailey Ober - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Carlos Rodon - 85 TBF, 32.9% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 95 TBF, 32.6% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 33.3% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 31.1% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 91 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - 73 TBF, 27.4% K-BB%
Bailey Ober - 70 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Nick Pivetta - 71 TBF, 26.8% K-BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - 95 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Logan Webb - 76 TBF, 62.5% GB%
Paul Skenes - 74 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 102 TBF, 61.0% GB%
Andre Pallante - 72 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Josh Winckowski - 72 TBF, 58.5% GB%
David Peterson - 93 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Tanner Houck - 88 TBF, 57.6% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 75 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 76 TBF, 56.9% GB%
Brandon Pfaadt - 90 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 100 TBF, 32.0 K%, 2.0 BB%, 50.8% GB%
Dedniel Nunez - 44 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 56.7% GB%
Garrett Crochet - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 4.1 BB%, 55.8% GB%
George Kirby - 95 TBF, 28.4 K%, 4.2 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Grayson Rodriguez - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 44.6% GB%
Huascar Brazoban - 45 TBF, 33.3 K%, 4.4 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Justin Martinez - 47 TBF, 31.9 K%, 2.1 BB%, 67.7% GB%
Luis L. Ortiz - 73 TBF, 28.8 K%, 1.4 BB%, 51.0% GB%
Paul Skenes - 74 TBF, 37.8 K%, 6.8 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Seth Lugo - 95 TBF, 30.5 K%, 6.3 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 96 TBF, 36.5 K%, 3.1 BB%, 54.4% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Carlos Rodon: 9.67 ERA, 3.7 SIERA
Yusei Kikuchi: 7.53 ERA, 2.58 SIERA
Kenta Maeda: 8.64 ERA, 4.85 SIERA
Jon Gray: 9.0 ERA, 5.5 SIERA
MacKenzie Gore: 7.22 ERA, 4.21 SIERA
Luis Gil: 7.25 ERA, 4.52 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 5.62 ERA, 2.9 SIERA
Cal Quantrill: 6.94 ERA, 4.28 SIERA
Alec Marsh: 7.22 ERA, 4.56 SIERA
Ranger Suarez: 6.51 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Luckiest
Erik Miller: 2.38 ERA, 4.92 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 1.2 ERA, 3.6 SIERA
David Peterson: 2.33 ERA, 4.41 SIERA
Reynaldo Lopez: 2.39 ERA, 4.46 SIERA
Sean Manaea: 2.05 ERA, 4.04 SIERA
Hogan Harris: 4.43 ERA, 6.42 SIERA
Ronel Blanco: 2.35 ERA, 4.34 SIERA
Jose Quintana: 2.0 ERA, 3.95 SIERA
Ryan Pepiot: 3.41 ERA, 5.15 SIERA
Erick Fedde: 2.7 ERA, 4.36 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Tarik Skubal - +6.2% CSW%, -2.4 BB%
Yusei Kikuchi - +2.0% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Jameson Taillon - +2.1% CSW%, -3.1 BB%
Ben Lively - +4.0% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Kyle Freeland - +2.0% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Aaron Nola - +2.2% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Luis L. Ortiz - +7.4% CSW%, -8.3 BB%
Kutter Crawford - +10.1% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +2.5% CSW%, -3.7 BB%
Randy Vasquez - +2.0% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Matthew Liberatore - +2.1% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Garrett Crochet - +3.1% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Tim Hill - +3.7% CSW%, -6.3 BB%
Huascar Brazoban - +3.9% CSW%, -7.6 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Ben Rice (NYY) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Brandon Lowe (TB) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Brent Rooker (OAK) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christopher Morel (CHC) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Ian Happ (CHC) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Lawrence Butler (OAK) 6 PA, 15 Swings, 2 Barrels, 3 HR
Michael Toglia (COL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 3 HR
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Rafael Devers (BOS) 4 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Hardest Hit Balls
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 114.7mph - home_run
Adam Duvall (ATL) - 112.7mph - single
Rafael Devers (BOS) - 112.7mph - double
Luke Raley (SEA) - 112.5mph - nan
Eloy Jimenez (CWS) - 112.3mph - single
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) - 111.3mph - field_out
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 110.8mph - field_out
Pete Alonso (NYM) - 110.7mph - field_out
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 110.7mph - nan
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 110.7mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
D.J. LeMahieu - 59 PA, 0.252 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, 0.118 Diff
Dansby Swanson - 78 PA, 0.254 wOBA, 0.337 xwOBA, 0.083 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 79 PA, 0.153 wOBA, 0.233 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff
Andres Gimenez - 76 PA, 0.257 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Jorge Polanco - 58 PA, 0.224 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
JJ Bleday - 69 PA, 0.19 wOBA, 0.257 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Marcell Ozuna - 83 PA, 0.372 wOBA, 0.436 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Marcus Semien - 84 PA, 0.265 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Jeremy Pena - 78 PA, 0.319 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Ryan Mountcastle - 61 PA, 0.262 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.061 Diff
Bottom 10
Francisco Alvarez - 60 PA, 0.399 wOBA, 0.284 xwOBA, -0.115 Diff
Trea Turner - 84 PA, 0.488 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Byron Buxton - 56 PA, 0.56 wOBA, 0.451 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Max Schuemann - 59 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.31 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Tyler Stephenson - 60 PA, 0.369 wOBA, 0.273 xwOBA, -0.096 Diff
Brent Rooker - 77 PA, 0.568 wOBA, 0.474 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Justyn-Henry Malloy - 56 PA, 0.36 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
Spencer Steer - 87 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, -0.079 Diff
Michael Busch - 85 PA, 0.374 wOBA, 0.298 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Jesus Sanchez - 59 PA, 0.367 wOBA, 0.291 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Cal Raleigh - 77 PA, 40 BIP, 11 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Austin Riley - 83 PA, 48 BIP, 13 Brls, 27.1 Brl%
Brenton Doyle - 75 PA, 51 BIP, 13 Brls, 25.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Ben Rice - 71 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Michael Toglia - 75 PA, 50 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.0 Brl%
Rafael Devers - 69 PA, 46 BIP, 11 Brls, 23.9 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 80 PA, 42 BIP, 10 Brls, 23.8 Brl%
Juan Soto - 78 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 77 PA, 50 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Rafael Devers - 69 PA, 0.501 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 77 PA, 0.474 xwOBA
Juan Soto - 78 PA, 0.473 xwOBA
Jose Miranda - 56 PA, 0.471 xwOBA
Brenton Doyle - 75 PA, 0.462 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 79 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Christian Yelich - 77 PA, 0.453 xwOBA
Ketel Marte - 73 PA, 0.452 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 56 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 133 Swings, 91.7 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 65 PA, 117 Swings, 90.6 Cont%
Santiago Espinal - 51 PA, 112 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Sal Frelick - 62 PA, 94 Swings, 88.3 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 93 PA, 176 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 61 PA, 109 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Ernie Clement - 58 PA, 99 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Maikel Garcia - 66 PA, 110 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Miguel Rojas - 60 PA, 100 Swings, 87.0 Cont%
Brice Turang - 81 PA, 152 Swings, 86.8 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Shohei Ohtani - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Lane Thomas - 7 Attempts (4 steals)
Luis Robert - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Dylan Moore - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Xavier Edwards - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Max Schuemann - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Willy Adames - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Miguel Rojas - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Zach McKinstry - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Parker Meadows - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Alec Burleson - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Dane Myers - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Victor Robles - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Elly De La Cruz - 15 Attempts (12 steals)
Lane Thomas - 12 Attempts (7 steals)
David Hamilton - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Luis Robert - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 10 Attempts (5 steals)
Brice Turang - 10 Attempts (6 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 10 Attempts (5 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Jarren Duran - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Christian Yelich - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Bobby Witt Jr. - 76 PA, 17.1 K%, 17.2 Brl%
Byron Buxton - 56 PA, 14.3 K%, 16.3 Brl%
Christian Yelich - 77 PA, 14.3 K%, 14.8 Brl%
Corey Seager - 67 PA, 16.4 K%, 14.0 Brl%
Francisco Lindor - 89 PA, 16.9 K%, 16.4 Brl%
George Springer - 78 PA, 12.8 K%, 16.9 Brl%
Juan Soto - 78 PA, 15.4 K%, 22.0 Brl%
Randy Arozarena - 70 PA, 20.0 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 64 PA, 12.5 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Last 30 Days - xwOBA Improvers
Jose Miranda - 91 PA, +0.149 xwOBA
Michael Toglia - 117 PA, +0.131 xwOBA
Brenton Doyle - 112 PA, +0.126 xwOBA
Austin Riley - 118 PA, +0.112 xwOBA
Byron Buxton - 84 PA, +0.108 xwOBA
Jonathan India - 116 PA, +0.107 xwOBA
Shohei Ohtani - 121 PA, +0.094 xwOBA
Bryan Reynolds - 123 PA, +0.092 xwOBA
C.J. Abrams - 122 PA, +0.083 xwOBA
Jake Meyers - 100 PA, +0.082 xwOBA
Last 30 Days - Brl% Improvers
Michael Toglia - 117 PA, +14.8 Brl%
Austin Riley - 118 PA, +10.5 Brl%
Josh Lowe - 88 PA, +10.3 Brl%
Mark Vientos - 108 PA, +9.4 Brl%
Brenton Doyle - 112 PA, +9.4 Brl%
Jonathan India - 116 PA, +8.6 Brl%
Bryan Reynolds - 123 PA, +8.1 Brl%
Jordan Westburg - 107 PA, +8.0 Brl%
Elly De La Cruz - 124 PA, +7.9 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 92 PA, +7.5 Brl%
Last 30 Days - Cont% Improvers
Cedric Mullins II - 84 PA, +9.5 Cont%
Rowdy Tellez - 89 PA, +9.5 Cont%
Matt Chapman - 121 PA, +8.0 Cont%
Brenton Doyle - 112 PA, +7.2 Cont%
Bryce Harper - 80 PA, +7.1 Cont%
Francisco Alvarez - 93 PA, +7.0 Cont%
Riley Greene - 120 PA, +6.8 Cont%
Nolan Arenado - 103 PA, +6.6 Cont%
Logan O'Hoppe - 99 PA, +6.6 Cont%
Randy Arozarena - 109 PA, +6.4 Cont%
Last 30 Days - K% Improvers
Andy Pages - 110 PA, -10.8 K%
Brenton Doyle - 112 PA, -10.4 K%
Byron Buxton - 84 PA, -10.3 K%
Tyler Stephenson - 83 PA, -9.9 K%
Carlos Correa - 104 PA, -9.7 K%
Tyler Soderstrom - 82 PA, -9.7 K%
Christian Yelich - 121 PA, -9.2 K%
Jo Adell - 90 PA, -8.8 K%
Jackson Chourio - 97 PA, -8.7 K%
Sal Frelick - 96 PA, -8.7 K%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Ketel Marte - +6.4% Contact%, +5.7 mph exit velo, -14.3 Chase%
Dansby Swanson - +10.3% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Kyle Schwarber - +18.3% Contact%, +4.5 mph exit velo, -8.4 Chase%
Geraldo Perdomo - +6.7% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -6.8 Chase%
Josh Palacios - +10.8% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -8.5 Chase%
Lawrence Butler - +11.7% Contact%, +4.6 mph exit velo, -4.0 Chase%
Gabriel Moreno - +4.0% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -6.4 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Christian Yelich - 0.49 xwOBA, 20.0% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 20.5% Chase%, 12.3% K%
Isaac Paredes - 0.425 xwOBA, 18.8% Brl%, 80.6% Contact%, 21.1% Chase%, 19.3% K%
Jonathan India - 0.392 xwOBA, 15.8% Brl%, 78.8% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 18.2% K%
Juan Soto - 0.439 xwOBA, 19.5% Brl%, 75.0% Contact%, 20.3% Chase%, 15.0% K%
Riley Greene - 0.412 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 79.3% Contact%, 22.1% Chase%, 18.3% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Noelvi Marte - 40.0% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.971 Cold Rating
Teoscar Hernandez - 39.3% Whiff%, 76.5% Weak%, 0.967 Cold Rating
Josh Lowe - 34.9% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.919 Cold Rating
Jeimer Candelario - 35.6% Whiff%, 70.3% Weak%, 0.89 Cold Rating
Mitch Garver - 31.5% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.863 Cold Rating
David Fry - 28.6% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.84 Cold Rating
Josh Rojas - 37.0% Whiff%, 65.0% Weak%, 0.835 Cold Rating
Joc Pederson - 36.6% Whiff%, 65.2% Weak%, 0.834 Cold Rating
Trevor Larnach - 37.7% Whiff%, 64.7% Weak%, 0.833 Cold Rating
Willi Castro - 29.3% Whiff%, 73.7% Weak%, 0.828 Cold Rating
Become a paid sub today to get the rest of the daily notes. It’s just $9/month and you get everything I do here. Check out the about page here for more. 10% of your subscription goes to charitable organizations such as Samaritan’s Purse, a Christian humanitarian aid organization.