This is about as busy as I’ve ever been in my life. Volunteering to be the school IT guy essentially has me working three jobs. It was nonstop movement and work yesterday, but there’s something about being really busy that makes you feel good. You know?
I have a very small sample size to draw conclusions from, but it does seem like Christian educators are particularly technologically ignorant. Maybe that’s not true, I don’t know. And I do really like the idea of a school that reads from paper books and does math on chalkboards and stuff. And that’s more or less where our school is headed. If it were up to the guy in charge, they probably would have like one or two computer classes in the school and limit all technology use to that.
We have SCHOOL CHOICE in Indiana, which lets you use your tax dollars to send your kids to private schools. And that’s fantastic. There’s no way I could have afforded to send three kids to Christian school back in Pennsylvania, but we can do it easily here. So it’s great. But it does give the state a foothold in the school. You have to follow some state rules if you’re going to get “their” money.
I’m not making a big deal out of it. Indiana is fine, they don’t have an overly negative affect on the school, I don’t think.
So it’s all good here, I’m very happy to be able to send my kids to a school that shares and emphasizes my Christian beliefs and values, and I’m actually quite happy to be able to help the school in a meaningful way.
I have realized something about myself through this, though. And the thing I’ve realized is that I have a real distrust of anybody else to do anything that I know how to do. I’ve never lacked for self-confidence. And since my daughter is in this school, I have skin in the game. I want it to be a great school. But from my experiences in life, most people just aren’t very good at doing stuff. And I think I am pretty good at doing the things that I do. So if there’s a thing to be done that I know how to do, I’d rather be the one doing it.
But hold on, it’s possible that I’m actually trash at doing what I do. I mean that’s a real option that is on the table here. So maybe I’m ruining everything! Who knows.
I want to go down through the daily notes section-by-section today. It’s a fun way to do this, although it’s ugly and hard to read. So get a few extra blinks in here and buckle up.
Pitcher Reports
Yesterdays Pitcher Debuts
Carson Whisenhunt (SF): 5.0IP, 5H, 4ER, 3SO, 2BB
I will put my writing in these sections so it’s set apart.
I did not even mention the debut of Carson Whisenhunt yesterday. C-Whizzy went for a 21% K% and a 7% BB% iin AAA this year with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. His JA ERA down there was 3.64. So I guess it’s okay that I ignored him yesterday, because those numbers don’t give you any hope for him being a good MLB pitcher. And he was not a good MLB pitcher yesterday. He got jacked up by the Pirates. The Pittsburgh Pirates! A 5.9% SwStr%, a 42% Ball% on 85 pithces. Bad stuff. He threw a 92mph sinker, an 82mph changeup, and a few sliders.
So that wasn’t good.
The story of the night in this situation was that the Giants flew the wrong parents to the game.
This doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Carson Ragsdale is also in AAA, so that the mixup kind of makes sense. They were calling up a pitcher from AAA named Carson. But why would the Ragsdale’s accept the flight? Did they think their son was being called up too? Did they not check with Carson?
Who knows if it’s even true. Most stuff isn’t. But maybe it’s better that the Whisenhunts weren’t there to see their kid’s poor debut.
No I’m just kidding about that, I’d be pretty mad if my son made it to the MLB and I couldn’t be there for his debut no matter how it went.
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jacob Misiorowski
2. Chase Burns
3. Framber Valdez
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
5. Cam Schlittler
6. Troy Melton
7. Cristopher Sanchez
8. Davis Martin
9. Jacob deGrom
10. JP Sears
11. Brad Lord
12. Bradley Blalock
13. Andre Pallante
14. Mitch Keller
15. Edward Cabrera
16. Drew Rasmussen
17. Dylan Cease
18. Jack Kochanowicz
19. Chris Bassitt
20. Zach Eflin
21. Luis Castillo
22. Slade Cecconi
23. Simeon Woods Richardson
24. Spencer Strider
25. Richard Fitts
26. Eduardo Rodriguez
27. Frankie Montas
28. Matthew Boyd
29. Rich Hill
30. Carson Whisenhunt
The Jacob Misiorowski hook! He threw 80 pitches and was yanked. Last time, he threw 64 pitches and was yanked. His pitch counts this year:
So looks like a hard cap around 90, and they’ll shut him down after four innings if he’s around 70-80 pitches when he finishes that. You’re still starting him, because the ratios are likely to be fantastic even in those 4-5 innings. His ball rate is freaking 32%. That’s unreal. He just came to the majors and immediately started throwing way more strikes.
But he won’t be a quality start guy, and there will be times he’s just not eligible for wins because he can’t quite get that 15th out.
The Chase Burnsinator threw 91 pitches against the Dodgers and added ten strikeouts to his tally. That’s sthree straight outings with ten strikeouts. He now has a 36% K% in the Majors. And the BB%, while not fantastic, is under control at 9.5%. Really good stuff for Burns. However he hasn’t been that good at, you know, not letting runs scored. He now has a 6.25 ERA after giving up three to the Dodgers last night in 5.2 innings. A 26% K-BB% will very rarely turn into a poor ERA like we’ve seen in this case. He didn’t even give up a home run yesterday. I mean a 10:1 K:BB without a homer surrendered and he still gives up three earned. More poor luck for Burns, but there is some downside to being a predictable pitcher like Burns is.
He’s at 58% fastball and 34% slider usage. He throws 61% fastballs to elfties and does not have a third pitch agaisnt righties. So you know what’s coming. With three balls, he throws the fastball 81% of the time. And big leaguers can hit whatever you throw if they know you’re about to throw it. So you’ll continue to see Burns give up some hard hit balls, but the K-BB% looks like it’s going to be fantastic, which means that he’ll be very much a net positive in the fantasy game.
Cam Schlittler went for a 19.8% SwStr% and a 32.6% Ball! That’s impressive. Somehow he walked four batters on that 32.6% Ball%. That doesn’t make a lot of sense. It was the fourth-lowest ball rate for a start where the pitcher walked at least four batters.
For some reason, here’s a Ball% vs. Walk Total plot using this year’s SP data:
It was a really encouraging start for Schlittler in my book. He’s now sitting with a great 14.3% SwStr% and a 31.1% Ball%. That would suggest major improvement coming on both his 22% K% and his 13.2% BB%.
The last pitcher to look at is Troy Melton. He went seven scoreless against the D’Backs with a 5:0 K:BB on a 12.6% SwStr% and a 29.9% Ball%. He threw more fastballs this time (43%) and the pitch was strong at a 13.5% SwStr% and a 32% Ball%. He even generated a 47% GB%. His updated pitch mix data:
Good signs so far, I’d be adding Melton where I need SP help. He has upside that few others on the waiver wire would offer at this point in the season.
It’s really astounding to me how good Misiorowski has been at throwing strikes. His 55.3% Strike% for the season is second-best in the league behind Hunter Greene. Incredible stuff. Chase Burns and Zebby Matthews are also in that top ten.
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Brad Lord: 59 Pitches, 16 Outs, 3.69 POUT
2. Andre Pallante: 81 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.86 POUT
3. Troy Melton: 87 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.14 POUT
4. Cristopher Sanchez: 88 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.4 POUT
5. Luis Castillo: 89 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.45 POUT
6. Slade Cecconi: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
7. Bradley Blalock: 84 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.67 POUT
8. Chase Burns: 91 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.79 POUT
9. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 101 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.81 POUT
10. Richard Fitts: 58 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.83 POUT
Brad Lord has been kind of good in his role. He threw 59 pitches yesterday after throwing 50 in his previous start. He has now given up just two runs on seven hits in 9.1 innings the last two starts, and his JA ERA is at 2.84 in July.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Framber Valdez's SI velo (36 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 95.9
Season high velo on the Valdez sinker. And that turned into another 12-strikeout game.
He’s having the best season of his career, and that’s perfect because he’s on my MLB DW league team.
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andre Pallante's SL usage (35.8%) up 13.3 points
Brad Lord's SL usage (28.8%) up 10.9 points
Bradley Blalock's FS usage (27.4%) up 11.7 points
Cam Schlittler's FF usage (72.1%) up 20.6 points
Dylan Cease's CU usage (20.6%) up 13.0 points
Eduardo Rodriguez's CH usage (35.8%) up 15.2 points
Framber Valdez's CU usage (44.3%) up 10.5 points
Frankie Montas's ST usage (16.9%) up 15.8 points
JP Sears's FF usage (47.9%) up 10.5 points
Jack Kochanowicz's FF usage (30.7%) up 16.1 points
Luis Castillo's SI usage (33.7%) up 14.6 points
Mitch Keller's FF usage (52.1%) up 16.9 points
Rich Hill's CU usage (38.3%) up 13.5 points
Richard Fitts's CU usage (17.2%) up 10.1 points
Simeon Woods Richardson's FF usage (60.6%) up 11.0 points
Troy Melton's FF usage (42.5%) up 13.6 points
Troy Melton's FC usage (13.8%) up 10.5 points
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's SI usage (17.8%) up 13.3 points
Chris Paddack was traded to the Tigers yesterday, and no doubt that is because the Tigers brass reads the Daily Notes and saw how unlucky he’s been. Absolutely no freaking doubt about it. You’re welcome, Detroit.
It’s going to be an interesting decision for us to make on where/if to draft Chase Burns next year. He will probably finish with a poor ERA but an elite SIERA and stuff. ERA doesn’t really fool anybody at this point in the fantasy baseball game, but maybe you can get a cheap price on him in those work leagues where people really don’t know what they’re doing.
The other thing is that people will be predicting injury for him since he throws hard. And we’ve seen it time and time again. Starters throwing hard fastballs and sliders… eventually the elbow breaks down.
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 69 TBF, 31.9% K-BB%
Chase Burns - 77 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 75 TBF, 30.7% K-BB%
Max Scherzer - 68 TBF, 29.4% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 66 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Eric Lauer - 66 TBF, 28.8% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 76 TBF, 27.6% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 68 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 91 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jose Soriano - 96 TBF, 75.8% GB%
Framber Valdez - 75 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Clay Holmes - 87 TBF, 65.7% GB%
Jake Irvin - 92 TBF, 59.7% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 88 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 66 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 71 TBF, 54.5% GB%
George Kirby - 73 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Quinn Priester - 71 TBF, 54.3% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 75 TBF, 54.1% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
We will get to see Quinn Priester take this MFQ designation into a matchup with the Cubs tonight. That will be interesting to see. I won’t see it, because I’m blacked out from Cubs game and I’ll be at the school/church all night, but what a great test that will be for big Q.
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Nick Lodolo - +2.7% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Quinn Priester - +5.9% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Paul Skenes - +2.3% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Eric Lauer - +3.3% CSW%, -6.8 BB%
Bailey Falter - +3.7% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Sonny Gray - +5.7% CSW%, -5.9 BB%
Cal Quantrill - +4.8% CSW%, -6.8 BB%
Seth Lugo - +3.0% CSW%, -2.1 BB%
Landen Roupp - +2.8% CSW%, -5.8 BB%
I didn’t even know a guy like Paul Skenes could be ‘hot’ in this regard. His numbers are always so good that it’s tough to see him ever significantly improving on them. But that is what we’ve seen from the guy the last three weeks.
The DFS stack of the night was a Braves stack against Rich Hill. I didn’t play it, and I lost. Austin Riley was a fantastic play for the $4200 he cost, and I had him at first but ended up without him.
Riley has had another mediocre season. His K% is up to 28% this year and he’s homered just 15 times. His last five seasons HR totals:
It just seems like the Braves used up all of their goodness and luck in that 2023 season and now they’re all just sort of mediocre. Besides Ronald Acuna Jr. I guess.
Austin Riley 2021-2025 Stats
Two steals though!!!!
Speaking of SUCK, Mark Vientos - lol!!! He homered, shout out to him, but it was just his seventh of the year after that rokie season last year with 33 bombs. Strangely enough, his K% has improved by almost seven points. Weird stuff! He’s just stopped hitting the ball hard. Pitchers must have found a weak spot and have been exploiting it while he’s been unable to adjust. Or maybe that 2024 season was just random and he was never that good.
He’ll be an interesting rank for next year, and he’s a guy who maybe could get traded this week.
Mentioned yesterday about Michael Harris II, but you might want to give him an add if he’s become available in your league.
Ryan McMahon has hit 8th, 7th, and 7th in his three starts with the Yankees.
Ramon Laureano is now slugging .537 with 16 homers. He’s having probably the most surprising season with the bat in the league. I would imagine he gets traded this week. Remember that this guy was pretty hyped up coming up with Oakland and then had a long PED suspension and then sucked for awhile. But he’s been great this year. He’s even slugging .540 against righties. Crazy world, lotta smells.
Last 10 Days - xwOBA Over Expectation - Bottom 15
Riley Greene: 37.0 PA, -0.197 xwOBA OE
Nick Allen: 31.0 PA, -0.164 xwOBA OE
J.P. Crawford: 40.0 PA, -0.145 xwOBA OE
Ceddanne Rafaela: 35.0 PA, -0.137 xwOBA OE
Ernie Clement: 45.0 PA, -0.132 xwOBA OE
Colt Keith: 31.0 PA, -0.128 xwOBA OE
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 31.0 PA, -0.121 xwOBA OE
Mookie Betts: 30.0 PA, -0.116 xwOBA OE
Taylor Walls: 29.0 PA, -0.115 xwOBA OE
Trevor Story: 37.0 PA, -0.113 xwOBA OE
Lawrence Butler: 38.0 PA, -0.109 xwOBA OE
Nick Castellanos: 35.0 PA, -0.106 xwOBA OE
Jordan Westburg: 44.0 PA, -0.105 xwOBA OE
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 30.0 PA, -0.105 xwOBA OE
William Contreras: 39.0 PA, -0.104 xwOBA OE
Things have turned around on Ceddanne Rafaela, uh-oh!
I really like this xwOBA OE stat. It’s not that much different than xwOBA, but it’s a little bit better since it adjusts for pitch quality, and also I came up with it so that makes me think it’s better and cooler and awe-inspiring.
