MLB Daily Notes - July 29th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Trade Deadline Update
Christopher Morel for Isaac Paredes
Pretty surprising move here. The Rays get Morel and a couple of prospects for Paredes. So, the Cubs viewed Paredes as more valuable than Morel, which is really interesting. There’s a lot more to real life baseball than there is to fantasy baseball, they even apparently play this whole other part of the game called “defense” where the players wear these leather things on their hands and have to try to catch the ball the hitter hits into play. And they say that Morel is bad at that. The only thing I see is that both of these guys are 25, and Morel hits the ball so, so much harder than Paredes and is a much better athlete.
Fantasy-wise, it’s a pretty big downgrade for Paredes. He has 19 expected homers in Tropicana, and just 11 in Wrigley Field. He hits almost all of his dingers to deep left field (by deep I mean far to the left), and Wrigley has this weird notch thing that juts out like right where Paredes is hitting those homers.
It’s one of the worst possible ballparks for him. But this is assuming that he’ll stay the same as a hitter, and that’s not a sure-fire assumption. He’s clearly skilled, so maybe he can change his approach, given the new home park. But if he does that and starts spraying the ball around a bit more, the homers will dry up in a hurry. He just doesn’t hit the ball hard at all. He has the fourth-lowest average exit velocity on fly balls for all hitters with at least 25 homers dating back to 2023.
But yeah, like I said at the beginning, this is a real-life trade and not a fantasy one, so there’s a lot more that goes into it.
As for Morel’s fantasy impact, I don’t see much of a change.
That was the only trade of note yesterday. Just three more days until it’s all over, so we should get a flood of stuff today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. Gotta love it.
Pitcher Review
DJ Herz would appear to be very underrated. He had another really impressive start yesterday:
5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 8 K, 1 BB, 22.8% SwStr%, 58.2% Strike%, 29.1% Ball%
That’s a ridiculous line. He threw just 79 pitches as well.
He is now up to a 15.4% SwStr% and 34% Ball% on the year (740 pitches):
The fastball has worked extremely well with the 55% Srike% and 18.2% SwStr%. Those numbers don’t make much sense at all given the velocity (93.5) and Stuff+ (92.7). That pitch has over-performed. His Stuff+ and Location+ numbers are pretty bad across the board, so that would be a small point against him. But a 15.4% SwStr% in 740 pitches is really impressive, and that’s not something you can do with just sheer luck.
He’s now 9th in the league in SwStr%.
SwStr% Leaders - 8 GS Minimum (Stuff+ Shown as well)
Crochet 17.1% / 103
Jones 17.1% / 126
Skubal 16.7% / 104
Snell 16.5% / 115
Ragans 16.2% / 108
Cease 15.6% / 123
Flaherty 15.6% / 95
Herz 15.4% / 92
Imanaga 15.4% / 89
Peralta 15.3% / 104
Everybody here except Flaherty, Herz, and Imanaga have Stuff+ above 100. So it’s not impossible to do, but it is less likely to go for a very high SwStr% when your stuff doesn’t grade out that well.
Average Stuff+ By SwStr% Bin
15%+ SwStr%: 108 Stuff+
13-15% SwStr%: 106 Stuff+
11-13% SwStr%: 96 Stuff+
9-11% SwStr%: 92 Stuff+
< 9% SwStr%: 86 Stuff+
Carlos Rodon had another great one:
6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB, 25 whiffs, 23.8% SwStr%
He had that really rough patch giving up a ton of earned runs while pitching pretty well under the hood, and now, as expected, he’s been much better.
He has 17 strikeouts and just three earned runs allowed in these last two starts against the Rays and Red Sox.
Bailey Ober was fantastic again:
8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 11 K, 2 BB, 20.4% SwStr%, 52% Strike%
He has gotten his ERA down to 3.76 with a 1.01 WHIP and a great 20.8% SwStr%. Remember he gave up eight earned runs in his first start of the year. That was 17% of his season earned runs in just 5% of his starts (1 of 20).
The lesson that Bailey Ober teaches us is that it’s good to be tall and that all of the stuff they tell you when you’re a kid about your size not mattering is total crap. You cannot be whatever you want to be, there are limits, some things are, indeed, impossible. You can either deny reality and be depressed, or you can accept your bounds and optimize your life inside of them.
Ober has the tenth-highest release extension in the league
That makes his pitches effectively faster than they really are, because they have less distance to travel. All four of them play at least 1.2 miles per hour faster than they are really moving:
If you’re wondering about what other pitches have big differentials, you can check out the full data I just put together here.
Cole Ragans gave up four earned runs in 5.2 innings, but maintained good numbers under the hood with 17 whiffs and a 16.7% SwStr%. The problem was his command wasn’t great (40.2% Ball%). But the main thing we’re interested in right now is the velocity. It came up a bit, but it’s still well below the 96mph he was averaging before the break.
He’s only been below 95 in five starts, and those are his last five starts. The Stuff+ is also dropping off (we don’t have the numbers from yesterday yet):
That pushes him down the list a bit, but even in these last five:
16.5% SwStr%, 26.2% K%, 6.3% BB%
So he’s still fooling guys even without the high velo. If you can still sell him for another ace or a great hitter, I’d do it, but it’s probably too late for that in most leagues.
River Ryan struck out eight:
5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 3 BB, 15.4% SwStr5, 49.5% Strike%
He threw 91 pitches there, so it was a good sign for the rookie.
He’s now thrown 164 pitches at Major League hitters. The first start was bad, the second start was good, and overall it’s still bad (11.6% SwStr%, 43% Strike%), but we need to see at least 2-3 more starts to judge him.
The Stuff+ from his first start was 112, which was a great sign, but the location was really bad at 91. I’d stick with him in deeper leagues. It's good to see the eight strikeouts there. He has the fastball velo, and he has a bunch of other pitches to use. It’s a very good foundation to build on.
Let’s just check some low-owned SPs posting high strike rates in July!
DJ Herz 54.5%
Spencer Schwellenbach 51.9%
Tobias Myers 50.3%
Luis Ortiz 50.0%
Simeon Woods Richardson 49.7%
Mitchell Parker 49.7%
Tanner Gordon 49.6%
Brayan Bello 49.2%
Hayden Birdsong 49.1%
Ryne Nelson 49.0%
Gavin Williams 48.9%
Hitter Review
Your highest-scoring hitters of the weekend (Friday-Sunday):
Jorge Soler 68
Aaron Judge 68
Kyle Schwarber 67
Jorge Polanco 63
Tyler Fitzgerald 57
Xavier Edwards 56
Shohei Ohtani 54
Nolan Schanuel 54
Xander Bogaerts 53
Matt Chapman 53
It’s been a rough year for Jorge Soler:
.748 OPS, 33 PA/HR, 10.5% Brl%, 24.7% K%, .340 xwOBA
But he has rewarded people’s patience in July:
.877 OPS, 32 PA/HR, 15.1% Brl%, 28.4% K%, .400 xwOBA
And he’s been especially good since the break:
1.090 OPS, 25 PA/HR, 17.9% Brl%, 22.0% K%, .517 xwOBA
In the same way, Jorge Polanco has had one of his worst seasons.
.210/.290/.339, .629 OPS, 9 HR, 9.2% Brl%, 30.8% K%
Since the break:
.286/.342/.686, 1.028 OPS, 4 HR, 21.4% Brl%, 18.4% K%
Drastic change. However it’s in just 38 PAs so it’s really hard to believe. Polanco has never been great at anything for fantasy, he’s just been solid across the board. And now he’s 31, so any kind of physical degradation takes him out of fantasy relevance pretty quickly. I don’t think he needs to be owned in standard leagues, but if you’re really in need of a middle infielder, you can do worse.
This Xavier Edwards guy is on the Marlins, if you didn’t know. He’s fast, does not strike out much, and hits a good number of line drives. So if he ever becomes a solid fantasy asset, it will be for his steals and batting average.
He’s now hitting .379/.462/.494 with one homer and eight steals in 105 PAs. The BABIP is through the roof at .438. That will come down, but with the speed and line drives (30% LD%), he does profile as a high BABIP guy.
He’s going to play a ton now with the Marlins shedding players and giving their young guys a good look. Since the break, he’s made 10 starts, and here’s where he’s been in the lineup:
1st: 2
2nd: 2
6th: 1
7th: 4
8th: 1
But he’s been the lead-off man in the two games since Jazz left, so that’s probably where he’ll be. I’m viewing him as a pretty great add right now if you’re looking for average, steals, and maybe a not-terrible amount of runs.
One last guy to cover: Nolan Schanuel. Remember that he was drafted last year and took 17 minutes to get to the Major Leagues because the Angels are crazy. This season:
403 PA, .251/.342/.380, 11 HR, 4.2% Brl%, 16% K%, 11% BB%, .266 xAVG, .332 xwOBA
He puts a lot of balls in play, but doesn’t have much power or steals upside (4 SB this year), so he’s a tough sell for fantasy. Since June, though:
197 PA, .283/.396/.448, 6 HR, 6.1% Brl%, 16% K%, 15% BB%, .290 xAVG, .371 xwOBA
He’s raised the power numbers a bit in this sample by dropping his GB% from 50% to 46%. He has still posted a very low hard-hit rate (28%), but he’s getting enough balls into the proper angle range to hit some homers. He’s a decent floor hitter in deeper leagues, but I don’t see this guy as ever having a ton of rotisserie fantasy value.
Feels good to be back and unrestricted in writing. That long three-day weekend traveling with the kids makes it real tough to get what I want to get out to you. But it should be a good week ahead.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. DJ Herz
2. Bailey Ober
3. Carlos Rodon
4. Garrett Crochet
5. Hunter Greene
6. Spencer Arrighetti
7. David Peterson
8. Cole Ragans
9. River Ryan
10. Reynaldo Lopez
11. Jose Berrios
12. Yilber Diaz
13. Mitch Keller
14. Bryce Miller
15. Tobias Myers
16. Joey Cantillo
17. Miles Mikolas
18. Javier Assad
19. Kyle Tyler
20. Kolby Allard
21. Osvaldo Bido
22. Austin Gomber
23. Randy Vasquez
24. Jose Soriano
25. Albert Suarez
26. Tanner Houck
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober (vs. DET): 42.2 Points
2. River Ryan (vs. HOU): 27.76 Points
3. Carlos Rodon (vs. BOS): 24.64 Points
4. Jose Berrios (vs. TEX): 24.15 Points
5. Hunter Greene (vs. TB): 23.95 Points
6. Yilber Diaz (vs. PIT): 22.25 Points
7. Mitch Keller (vs. ARI): 21.35 Points
8. DJ Herz (vs. STL): 20.85 Points
9. Bryce Miller (vs. CWS): 20.04 Points
10. Spencer Arrighetti (vs. LAD): 19.9 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 25 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
2. Bailey Ober (MIN): 20 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
3. DJ Herz (WSH): 18 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
4. Cole Ragans (KC): 17 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
5. David Peterson (NYM): 15 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
6. Hunter Greene (CIN): 15 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
7. River Ryan (LAD): 14 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 13 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
9. Kenta Maeda (DET): 12 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
10. Edwin Uceta (TB): 11 Whiffs (32 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. DJ Herz (WSH): 58.2 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
2. Tobias Myers (MIL): 54.7 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
3. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU): 52.6 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
4. Bailey Ober (MIN): 52.0 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
5. Hunter Greene (CIN): 51.0 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
6. Kolby Allard (PHI): 50.8 Strike%, 23.8 Ball%
7. Garrett Crochet (CWS): 50.0 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 50.0 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
9. River Ryan (LAD): 49.5 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
10. Kenta Maeda (DET): 49.4 Strike%, 31.3 Ball%
11. Miles Mikolas (STL): 49.4 Strike%, 25.8 Ball%
12. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 49.1 Strike%, 35.1 Ball%
13. Emmanuel Ramirez (MIA): 49.0 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%
14. David Peterson (NYM): 48.9 Strike%, 37.5 Ball%
15. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 48.6 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Bailey Ober: 98 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.08 POUT
2. Javier Assad: 81 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.5 POUT
3. Michael Lorenzen: 55 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.58 POUT
4. Mitch Keller: 97 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.62 POUT
5. Bryce Miller: 88 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.63 POUT
6. Hunter Greene: 100 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.76 POUT
7. Jose Berrios: 100 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.76 POUT
8. Miles Mikolas: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
9. Chad Kuhl: 75 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. Kolby Allard: 63 Pitches, 12 Outs, 5.25 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Bryce Miller's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 84.9
Jose Berrios's SV velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 84.4
Albert Suarez's FC velo (16 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 88.0
David Peterson's SL velo (18 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 83.7
Michael Lorenzen's CH velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 82.8
Javier Assad's FC velo (22 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 86.8
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (30 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 94.9
Michael Lorenzen's SI velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 91.8
Javier Assad's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 90.3
Cole Ragans's CH velo (35 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 83.5
Michael Lorenzen's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 91.7
Mitch Keller's SI velo (13 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 91.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Albert Suarez's CU usage (25.3%) up 15.0 points
Bailey Ober's FC usage (21.4%) up 11.6 points
Carlos Rodon's CH usage (26.7%) up 17.1 points
Emmanuel Ramirez's FS usage (49.0%) up 10.1 points
Garrett Crochet's FC usage (46.9%) up 18.6 points
Noah Davis's CU usage (38.0%) up 25.4 points
Osvaldo Bido's FF usage (43.0%) up 12.9 points
Randy Vasquez's CU usage (27.0%) up 10.3 points
Randy Vasquez's FC usage (25.4%) up 11.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Luis Gil Slider: +22.0%
Patrick Corbin Cutter: +20.8%
Marco Gonzales Sinker: -19.2%
Blake Snell Curveball: +18.4%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: -17.0%
Erick Fedde Cutter: +16.7%
Hayden Birdsong Curveball: +16.4%
Tyler Glasnow Sinker: +16.1%
Kyle Freeland 4-Seam Fastball: -16.1%
Ryne Nelson 4-Seam Fastball: +16.0%
Garrett Crochet Cutter: +15.8%
Tyler Glasnow 4-Seam Fastball: -15.7%
Yariel Rodriguez 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Logan Webb Changeup: -15.0%
Marco Gonzales Changeup: +14.9%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -14.6%
Sean Manaea Sinker: -14.4%
Jordan Hicks Sweeper: +14.4%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +14.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -14.0%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: -13.7%
Drew Thorpe Cutter: +13.3%
Edward Cabrera Sinker: +13.2%
Framber Valdez Sinker: -13.1%
Hayden Birdsong 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
Luis Gil 4-Seam Fastball: -12.3%
Adam Mazur 4-Seam Fastball: -12.2%
Lance Lynn 4-Seam Fastball: +12.2%
Logan Gilbert Cutter: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Blake Snell - 84 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Michael King - 70 TBF, 35.7% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 81 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 81 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 87 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Brayan Bello - 97 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Dylan Cease - 72 TBF, 41.7% K%
Hayden Birdsong - 64 TBF, 35.9% K%
Blake Snell - 84 TBF, 35.7% K%
Nick Pivetta - 68 TBF, 35.3% K%
Michael King - 70 TBF, 34.3% K%
Framber Valdez - 73 TBF, 34.2% K%
Carlos Rodon - 87 TBF, 33.3% K%
Yusei Kikuchi - 98 TBF, 32.7% K%
Chris Sale - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Logan Gilbert - 77 TBF, 31.2% K%
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