MLB Daily Notes - July 9
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis
Check out yesterday’s box scores here
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Should I start with the good news or the bad news? It was an interesting night in baseball.
First, I tweeted about how Logan Webb doesn’t deserve to be in the All Star game. And then he replied to it and we had a little back-and-forth. Apparently, he got into it with some other people too, and he ended up deactivating his X account. Giants fans, don’t blame me. It wasn’t my fault. I wasn’t even mean to the guy. I’d never be mean to someone else, especially not someone who has four inches, 60 pounds, and tens of millions of dollars on me.
My guess is that Webb was having a tough night. Never a good idea to go around searching your name when you’re a famous person. I’m the most famous person in my house, so I know what I’m talking about. The good news for me is that “Jon Anderson” is such a lame, common name, that searching my name wouldn’t really work anyways.
My first tweet was this:
So I didn’t even use his name, the post just must have come up on his For You tab. His reply was nothing harsh, he just said “Yep, I am! Thanks. I didn’t pick myself” or something like that. And then I quoted it:
So I said he got SHELLED. And he called me on that, saying he didn’t get shelled and I’d know that if I watched the game. I don’t watch the games. Why would I watch a 3:00 Giants game, bro? I have like 35% of a real life!
But he didn’t get shelled. Seven innings, five hits, one homer - that’s not shelled. There was some bad luck BABIP stuff and then a grand slam by Okamoto, and then he bounced back very well for six innings after that. He gave up a .299 xwOBA. Not shelled, but whatever - never let the truth ruin a good tweet!
Webb has now had two pretty rough ones in a row, but the All Star voting was before these last two, so I guess he’s more deserving than it seems like now. But he did go on the IL and just hasn’t been doing great all year. He’s not having the year he did last year. There are many more deserving names.
The All-Star Game is causing a lot of consternation. These players clearly care about it, even the veterans. We talked about Wheeler getting mad about it yesterday. These guys are, by definition, really competitive. You don’t get to the highest level without being near a psychotic level of competitive. So it’s a byproduct of the situation that helped these guys accomplish their dreams and do really, really impressive stuff.
I’ve always wanted to know why Webb doesn’t throw more four-seamers to get more strikeouts. I kinda just assumed it was a choice. His best way of attack must be, in the eyes of him and his coaches, to just get the ground balls and get deep into games by getting those quick outs. And he’s had an awesome career doing it, so I’m not going to act as if I know better.
For fantasy leagues, this 19% K% is a killer. The K-BB% spiked to 26.2% last year, and now he’s come down to a career low.
The four-seamer’s good though! He’s been able to throw that 95+ in the past. Not so this year, but still a good 11.4% SwStr% and .249 xwOBA on it. The guy could do different things if he wanted to. But he’s an All-Star again, and he’d be a top 2-3 arm on any team he ended up on. Hopefully he’s not taking social media too seriously, and I wish him all the best for the rest of his career unless he ever faces the Pirates in the playoffs. At that point I don’t care about him.
On the other side of that game was a ridiculous start from Dylan Cease.
→ 8.0IP 1H 0ER 0R 11K 3BB
He took a no-no into the 9th and ended up throwing 118 pitches! That was the most pitches thrown in an outing this year.
Cease is a mega-ace this year.
A freaking 37% K%! He and Misiorowski are the only ones above 31% for 15+ GS pitchers.
It’s a ridiculous thing to do, to strike out that many guys. He’s in the conversation for Cy Young with Schlittler. Awesome year for Cease, and an awesome fantasy pick this year which I hyped up in the preseason. I only got one share of him (in the 30-team MLB DW dynasty, which I screwed the rest of up pretty bad). But nobody cares about ME today.
Heliot Ramos bat flipped a single down ten runs in the ninth, which is really funny, but hey he broke up a no-hitter and ended some embarassment. So that’s an acceptable thing to do.
Jared Jones threw six PERFECT innings.
→ 6.0IP 0H 0ER 0R 8K 0BB
But it was pitch count time and he did not come out for the 7th after 77 pitches. It would seem INSANE to end a perfect game after 77 pitches, but they’re being very careful with Jones so it was easy to see coming, and he wasn’t mad about it in the postgame comments. The bullpen gave up three runs in the 8th-9th and the Pirates lost 3-0. I guess that’s consolation - they didn’t score, so they didn’t have any real chance of finishing the perfecto or even winning the game.
The Braves are having a strong year. But it’s not really because of their rotation. They’re rolling out with some bad pitchers right now. Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, JR Ritchie, etc. It’s not a great rotation with the injuries they’ve had. And the offense has been mediocre for awhile now since losing Acuna. But a bullpen like that is very valuable. They’re a tough team to beat late.
The top bullpens by ERA are the Yankees and Braves, and then there’s a real gap to the next team.
There are different ways to measure that. My Pitching Stats dashboard just takes “bullpen” as any stats from a pitcher who did not start the game. And that’s where you get a sick 3.15 ERA from.
You’ve gotta score early on the Braves to beat them.
Back to Jones, though. He didn’t walk anybody and got those eight strikeouts. It was impressive.
He was throwing a bunch of strikes and letting the stuff be what the stuff can be. The guy is very, very talented and I’ve been telling people to have patience with him. That paid off yesterday, and we had a nice 6+ strikeout bet on him that hit easily. Hopefully some daily slip readers took that one to the bank.
Jones now: 27% K%, 7.6% BB%, 15.9% SwStr%, 37.8% Ball%
That’s a K-BB% just a tick below 20%. So you want that on your fantasy teams. But it looks like 80-85 pitches will be the hard cap for most of the rest of the year.
Foster Griffin - 7.0IP 5H 1ER 1R 9K 0BB
He keeps doing it! He took it to the Astros in this one. He now has three nine-strikeout performances in his last four outings. So the league isn’t adjusting like I thought they would. Or maybe they are, but he’s adjusting to their adjustment! This is a really impressive year for Griffin who came out of nowhere. That guy should be an All-Star!
Troy Melton - 5.33IP 4H 0ER 1R 9K 1BB
So Melton looks really good. His last four starts:
27:5 K:BB, nine hits, two runs in 23.2 innings. Crazy stuff. How he’s done it:
Whiffs on all of his pitches. A six-pitch mix and a 15.6% SwStr% in these last four. Sweet stuff. I still think the fastball kinda sucks and will be trouble. A 50% FB% but just one homer, but the .203 xwOBA shows that hitters can’t really get to it. And the cutter is a good tunnel pitch with it and the slider is just awesome.
Melton’s looking like a breakout guy who might be a top 25 SP pick next year.
MacKenzie Gore - 5.0IP 9H 7ER 7R 7K 1BB
Never trust the guy, ever. This was a massive failure at home vs. LAA. I had him in DFS, as a lot of people did, and that went terribly. But it’s not surprising. He’s usually decent at home, at least.
But the 4.72 ERA and 1.31 WHIP have been killers. But I still can’t drop him in my home league because there are no other good options. I guess I could add Kade Anderson again. His zeroes would be more helpful than Gore at this point. What a jag.
Shane McClanahan - 6.33IP 4H 0ER 0R 5K 0BB
Gerrit Cole - 6.33IP 7H 3ER 3R 6K 1BB
The pitcher’s duel happened in Tampa like we thought it would. The Yankees really can’t hit right now. Lowest team OPS since June 1st:
Not what you expected to see with SEA/ATL/NYY below .662 in this last seven weeks or whatever it’s been. That Judge guy seems pretty valuable.
Neither McClanahan nor Cole is what they were a few years ago.
A 15% K-BB% is fine, but far from elite for Shane Mac. But he’s been great at limiting homers and keeping the ball on the ground, so you’re pretty happy with what you’ve gotten. Impressive bounce-back from all of the injuries for him.
Cole has similar marks:
A 17% K-BB% because he’s rarely walking anybody. He has a little bit more of a home run issue, but he’s just a very, very good pitcher who doesn’t need that prime stuff to get results.
Gabriel Hughes - 6.0IP 4H 3ER 3R 7K 2BB
The Rockies almost came through on our pick for them to win. 4-3 Dodgers after Hughes gave up a few in the first inning. An impressive outing for Hughes, the newcomer. I’m not saying you should get anywhere near him in fantasy leagues, but he’s good enough to stick in their rotation. Most of the league is good enough to stick in the Rockies rotation. The stuff:
Lots of fastballs, but it worked well last night.
Kyle Harrison - 4.0IP 4H 3ER 3R 2K 0BB
He might be hurt. They said he had some fatigue or something going on, and he left after 70 pitches last night. The start before that he labored hard in the fourth and had another short outing. He has a 5.00 ERA in his last four and now he’s had two very bad outings since this injury stuff flared up.
It might be about over for Harrison. Which I welcome, the Brewers don’t need that going on. Or maybe they’ll take advantage of the break and give him 10-14 days off, and he’ll recover.
George Kirby - 6.0IP 8H 2ER 2R 7K 0BB
Good one for Kirby, but the M’s couldn’t score and the fish won another game. The Marlins are 30-17 at home now and they’re nine over .500. That’s a competitive team. I’m not sure how they’re doing it. The roster isn’t impressive, but with Eury back and the offense being improved, they could make some noise.
You have to wonder if they’ll still be looking to move Sandy Alcantara. It was an obvious trade candidate before the season since nobody really expected the Marlins to be in the race. But they’re in the race now!
Kirby was good! 7:0 K:BB, 12 whiffs (29 in his last two). Did get hit hard a few times (.391 xwOBA). But you like Kirby for your fantasy teams, especially at home.
Chase Burns - 5.0IP 3H 3ER 3R 2K 6BB
Six walks against the Phillies. Lost the command. He has just six strikeouts and eight walks in his last two. Probably just a little blip, but you have to start wondering at this point in the season about the volume and innings for guys like this. Burns threw just 110 innings last year and he’s up to 103 now. Can he be elite for 60+ more innings? Time will tell. But it wouldn’t be a bad idea to see what you could get for him in the redraft leagues out there.
He was losing some velo before yesterday, so at least that came back:
Let’s re-activate the INNINGS TRACKER SHEET. I had that thing turned off, but it’s live again. This will compare 2026 innings (all levels) with 2025 innings and filter to just the guys who have made 5+ starts in the Majors this year:
What you’d really be worried about are the young guys here like Meyer and Burns. Meyer is already 43 innings above what he threw last year.
That will be refreshed every day so you can check it for the guys you’re interested in. It hurts if a young guy is on a bad team… like Burns. But +7 gives him a lot of runway left before they’d consider shutting it down. That’s a godo thing to add to your checks. Maybe even Ryan Weathers should be watched here. Just 56 innings last year and now 92 as he’s stayed healthy for the Yanks. They could end up moving him to the bullpen to save some bullets for the postseason.
Grant Holmes - 5.0IP 3H 0ER 0R 5K 1BB
Good one for him as he flummoxed the Pirates and got to that bullpen. Holmes has quietly given up just two runs in his last four outings. His ERA is down to 3.61. The strikeouts have been weak (20%, just 15 in his last four starts), but he’s getting the job done for the Braves and looks to have job security.