MLB Daily Notes - June 10th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Pitcher Review
We have this weird thing going on today where Keaton Winn is at the top of the ranks list because he went for a 23.2% SwStr% and 31.9% Ball% with a 7:2 K:BB on 69 pitches. But he also gave up six hits and seven earned runs so it was not a good start. It’s interesting that he’s back in the rotation though. You probably remember that I was pretty interested in him for awhile there with the decent stuff and the high ground ball rate, but it’s been pretty much a disaster for him this year. He’s given up five, seven, five, and seven earned runs in his last four starts to bring his ERA to 7.01.
I’ll keep an eye on him, we can certainly forgive a guy in the first start back from injury (I don’t even think he rehabbed), and the whiffs were interesting yesterday, but for now we leave him on the waiver wire.
Tyler Glasnow struck out 12 Yankees but did give up five earned runs. He gave up two homers and eight hits. It’s not really something we have to talk about, Glasnow is very clearly a top three starter in the league. What is more interesting is the Yankees lineup without Juan Soto in it. I guess he’ll be back soon, but that’s a big loss for them when he’s not there. This is what it looked like last night:
Judge is a huge problem, obviously, but nobody else there is that imposing. But they’ve been fantastic and Soto should be back soon anyways so there’s nothing really to say here.
Jared Jones was once again not all that great, which is concerning.
5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 3 BB, 16.7% SwStr%, 38.1% Ball%
That’s a very strong SwStr% and it could have gone a lot better for him as the first inning was just a mess and there was a really bad ump call that cost him a run, but it’s hard to say his command hasn’t seriously regressed since that first month.
That is four straight starts with a Ball% above the league average of 36%. It’s not to say he’s going to be a bad or even mediocre pitcher, the whiffs are still strong and the stuff is awesome as always, but he was pitching like a Cy Young Award winner early in the year because he was getting those whiffs while also wasting very, very few pitches out of the zone.
Over his last six starts he has a 14.7% SwStr% and 34.8% Ball%, still good numbers there but short of totally elite. The strikeout rate in that time is just 18.5%. That’s strange, you would really expect a 26-28% K% with that SwStr%, so there’s some bad luck there it would seem. The point here is that Jones looked like the best pitcher in the league in April, and since then he’s been more of just a very good pitcher. That along with some of the questions about how many innings he’ll throw and I’d say he’s a pretty good sell-high candidate.
Luis Gil got through his start against the Dodgers:
5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB, 15.6% SwStr%, 37.5% Ball%
His season walk rate sits at 11.9%, but it’s 8.6% in his last 8 starts, he had a 17.6% BB% in April which has kept the season number inflated.
I think we’ll see the K% come down towards 27% or so, but it seems like he won’t have a massive issue with the walk. He’s still a fly ball pitcher (29% FB%, 21% LD%) who hasn’t given up homers (59 PA/HR), and the BABIP is still shocking low at .186, so he’s a sell-high guy as well, but I can’t say that he’s primed to be a total disaster moving forward given that he’s calmed a lot of the nerves about his control.
Justin Verlander struggled a bit, allowing seven hits and four runs in five innings. The season SwStr% is now just 10.8% and the K% is 21%.
It’s going to be a bumpy ride for Verlander for the rest of the year, but he’s probably not a great trade candidate unless you have someone in your league who really likes the name value or is a big Verlander fan or something like that.
Hurston Waldrep debuted and it didn’t go well:
3.2 IP, 4 H, 7 R, 1 K, 4 BB, 11.3% SwStr%, 38.7% Ball%
That’s a lot of runs to give up on just four hits, but when you walk four guys and give up a poorly timed homer, that will happen. The pitch mix:
He threw the splitter in the zone 48% of the time, so it’s a pitch he wants to throw for strikes, again it’s clearly not a typical splitter. The 24% SwStr% on it yesterday is striking, but we’re talking about just 25 pitches so we need more data here. The four-seamer had solid velocity as well as you can see there but got just the one whiff.
I would say that if you picked him up and the Braves are going to keep him in the rotation, you should let him have another try for your fantasy team as well.
Drew Thorpe is getting the call-up for the White Sox to start tomorrow. He’s a deep league add. He’s been one of the best pitchers in all of the minor leagues since arriving with a sparkling 24% K-BB% in 199 innings.
The problem is that he doesn’t have much in terms of velocity, so he relies heavily on command and mixing up his pitches. He’s coming up right from AA so we don’t have pitch tracking data on him, but they do say he has five different pitches. He’s also a big guy at 6’4’’, so the hope would be that he is a Bailey Ober type who uses the height, command, and different pitches to have success in the Majors.
Not having fastball velo is a big obstacle to overcome though, so the floor is very low with him for 2024.
If you remember, this guy was traded from the Yankees to the Padres in the Juan Soto deal, and then from the Padres to the White Sox in the Dylan Cease deal. I’m not sure what that says about him. You could interpret it two ways
He’s a fantastic prospect because he’s been moved for two of the league’s biggest stars
Nobody really wants to hang onto him all that bad
I don’t know which one it is, but it will be interesting to watch him tomorrow night!
George Kirby pitched yesterday and was good, but I just want to use that as a launching point to look at ball rate leaders.
2024 Ball% Leaders
Kirby 29.9%
Skubal 30.3%
Sale 30.4%
Littell 30.9%
Houck 30.9%
Jones 31.3%
Eflin 31.3%
Parker 31.6%
Ryan 32.1%
Yamamoto 31.2%
Here’s the updated Ball% vs. Strike% plot:
Those two in the top left are Dakota Hudson and Jose Quintana. The Mets are paying Quintana $13 million to crush them, he seems totally washed at this point.
What we’re really looking for here are low ball rates with strong swinging-strike rates. So we can look at this plot:
Jones still way up there, although a month ago if you remember he was stretching the bounds of this plot to an absurd degree. The other studs here:
Skubal
Sale
Imanaga
Crochet
Pivetta
Ragans
Flaherty
And then some pretty good positions for:
Eovaldi
Castillo
Grayson
Glasnow
Detmers (ha)
Ben Brown
And now I have an inbox full of e-mails and support tickets to work on for the rest of the day, toodaloo!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Keaton Winn
2. Tyler Glasnow
3. Cole Ragans
4. Tarik Skubal
5. Andre Pallante
6. Grayson Rodriguez
7. Nathan Eovaldi
8. Carlos Carrasco
9. Luis Gil
10. Bailey Ober
11. Chris Flexen
12. Jared Jones
13. Bryse Wilson
14. DJ Herz
15. Mitch Spence
16. Shota Imanaga
17. George Kirby
18. Ty Blach
19. Hurston Waldrep
20. Patrick Sandoval
21. Frankie Montas
22. Taijuan Walker
23. Adam Mazur
24. Zack Littell
25. Justin Verlander
26. Trevor Rogers
27. Jose Quintana
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Tarik Skubal (vs. MIL): 32.81 Points
2. Cole Ragans (vs. SEA): 27.1 Points
3. Shota Imanaga (vs. CIN): 25.41 Points
4. Andre Pallante (vs. COL): 24.85 Points
5. Carson Spiers (vs. CHC): 23.76 Points
6. Grayson Rodriguez (vs. TB): 22.96 Points
7. Nathan Eovaldi (vs. SF): 22.15 Points
8. Tyler Glasnow (vs. NYY): 22.1 Points
9. Taijuan Walker (vs. NYM): 18.96 Points
10. George Kirby (vs. KC): 18.75 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Cole Ragans (KC): 22 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
2. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 22 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
3. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 18 Whiffs (107 Pitches)
4. Tarik Skubal (DET): 17 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. Keaton Winn (SF): 16 Whiffs (69 Pitches)
6. Luis Gil (NYY): 15 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Jared Jones (PIT): 14 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
8. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 13 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
9. DJ Herz (WSH): 13 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
10. Andre Pallante (STL): 13 Whiffs (68 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Carson Spiers (CIN): 56.7 Strike%, 28.9 Ball%
2. Cole Ragans (KC): 56.1 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
3. Tyler Glasnow (LAD): 55.8 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%
4. Tarik Skubal (DET): 53.7 Strike%, 31.6 Ball%
5. Grayson Rodriguez (BAL): 53.3 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
6. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX): 52.2 Strike%, 24.4 Ball%
7. Keaton Winn (SF): 50.7 Strike%, 31.9 Ball%
8. Bailey Ober (MIN): 50.6 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
9. Andre Pallante (STL): 50.0 Strike%, 33.8 Ball%
10. Taijuan Walker (PHI): 49.4 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
11. Mitch Spence (OAK): 48.3 Strike%, 28.1 Ball%
12. George Kirby (SEA): 47.9 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
13. Ty Blach (COL): 46.8 Strike%, 27.8 Ball%
14. Chris Flexen (CWS): 46.1 Strike%, 39.3 Ball%
15. Bryse Wilson (MIL): 46.1 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Carlos Carrasco: 55 Pitches, 14 Outs, 3.93 POUT
2. Mitch Spence: 89 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.24 POUT
3. Nathan Eovaldi: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
4. Andre Pallante: 68 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.53 POUT
5. George Kirby: 96 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.57 POUT
6. Taijuan Walker: 79 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.65 POUT
7. Tarik Skubal: 95 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.75 POUT
8. Shota Imanaga: 94 Pitches, 19 Outs, 4.95 POUT
9. Ty Blach: 79 Pitches, 15 Outs, 5.27 POUT
10. Carson Spiers: 90 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.29 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Grayson Rodriguez's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 86.6
Grayson Rodriguez's CU velo (23 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.2
Bailey Ober's FF velo (28 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 93.3
Bailey Ober's FC velo (18 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 88.5
Carson Spiers's CH velo (15 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.7
Luis Gil's CH velo (32 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 93.0
Andre Pallante's CU velo (20 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 79.1
Justin Verlander's FF velo (46 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 92.6
Taijuan Walker's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 91.0
Trevor Rogers's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 81.2
Taijuan Walker's FS velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Andre Pallante's CU usage (29.4%) up 16.1 points
Bailey Ober's FC usage (21.2%) up 13.9 points
George Kirby's SL usage (35.4%) up 14.8 points
Grayson Rodriguez's CU usage (21.5%) up 10.9 points
Jared Jones's CH usage (20.2%) up 12.7 points
Jose Quintana's SV usage (14.5%) up 11.0 points
Keaton Winn's FF usage (39.1%) up 13.0 points
Mitch Spence's SI usage (18.0%) up 11.8 points
Patrick Sandoval's FF usage (33.3%) up 10.6 points
Taijuan Walker's CU usage (17.7%) up 11.2 points
Taijuan Walker's ST usage (17.7%) up 13.8 points
Trevor Rogers's SI usage (34.1%) up 10.9 points
Ty Blach's CU usage (19.0%) up 11.0 points
Zack Littell's SI usage (27.0%) up 14.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Taijuan Walker Cutter: -24.9%
Luis Severino Sinker: +24.3%
Hunter Brown 4-Seam Fastball: -20.7%
Taijuan Walker Sweeper: +20.6%
Kenta Maeda Split-Finger: -19.2%
George Kirby 4-Seam Fastball: -17.7%
Cole Irvin 4-Seam Fastball: +16.4%
Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -15.0%
Luis Severino 4-Seam Fastball: -14.6%
Marcus Stroman Cutter: +14.0%
Simeon Woods Richardson Slider: +13.7%
George Kirby Slider: +13.4%
Trevor Rogers Sinker: +13.4%
Nick Nastrini Slider: +13.3%
Tarik Skubal 4-Seam Fastball: +13.2%
Charlie Morton 4-Seam Fastball: -12.7%
Ronel Blanco Changeup: -12.5%
Casey Mize Sinker: +12.3%
Miles Mikolas Sinker: +12.3%
Griffin Canning Changeup: +12.2%
Jose Urena Sinker: +12.2%
Ryan Feltner Slider: -12.1%
Michael Lorenzen Cutter: +12.0%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Grayson Rodriguez - 98 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Max Fried - 85 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Tarik Skubal - 100 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Chris Sale - 101 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Ben Brown - 76 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Garrett Crochet - 92 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 102 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Tanner Houck - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 96 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 83 TBF, 32.3% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Bradish - 83 TBF, 38.6% K%
Cole Ragans - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 96 TBF, 36.5% K%
Garrett Crochet - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%
Sonny Gray - 84 TBF, 34.5% K%
Ryan Weathers - 86 TBF, 33.7% K%
Ben Brown - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Max Fried - 85 TBF, 32.9% K%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 32.6% K%
Ranger Suarez - 85 TBF, 31.8% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Fried - 85 TBF, 30.6% K-BB%
Garrett Crochet - 92 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Ryan Weathers - 86 TBF, 29.1% K-BB%
Cole Ragans - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Kyle Bradish - 83 TBF, 28.9% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 96 TBF, 28.1% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Paul Skenes - 68 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Ben Brown - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Tanner Houck - 100 TBF, 24.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Brayan Bello - 103 TBF, 63.8% GB%
Hunter Brown - 93 TBF, 63.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 69 TBF, 63.0% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 86 TBF, 61.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 107 TBF, 61.2% GB%
Sonny Gray - 84 TBF, 59.1% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 67 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 100 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Erick Fedde - 99 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Logan Webb - 101 TBF, 53.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Sale - 101 TBF, 30.7 K%, 3.0 BB%, 44.8% GB%
Jack Flaherty - 63 TBF, 34.9 K%, 3.2 BB%, 43.6% GB%
Jake Irvin - 92 TBF, 28.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Jared Koenig - 46 TBF, 28.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, 62.1% GB%
Luke Weaver - 44 TBF, 27.3 K%, 4.5 BB%, 43.3% GB%
Max Fried - 85 TBF, 32.9 K%, 2.4 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Paul Skenes - 68 TBF, 29.4 K%, 4.4 BB%, 44.4% GB%
Ryan Weathers - 86 TBF, 33.7 K%, 4.7 BB%, 61.5% GB%
Tanner Houck - 100 TBF, 27.0 K%, 3.0 BB%, 50.7% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 100 TBF, 30.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 100 TBF, 30.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 54.7% GB%
SIERA vs. ERA Comp, Last 30 Days
Unluckiest
Reid Detmers: 9.17 ERA, 4.41 SIERA
Martin Perez: 8.76 ERA, 4.96 SIERA
Pablo Lopez: 8.0 ERA, 4.32 SIERA
Blake Snell: 7.5 ERA, 3.99 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery: 8.1 ERA, 4.87 SIERA
Cristian Javier: 8.74 ERA, 5.74 SIERA
Taj Bradley: 6.04 ERA, 3.24 SIERA
Ross Stripling: 7.9 ERA, 5.18 SIERA
Dylan Cease: 5.85 ERA, 3.18 SIERA
Braxton Garrett: 5.81 ERA, 3.23 SIERA
Luckiest
Michael Lorenzen: 1.5 ERA, 4.94 SIERA
Tyler Anderson: 2.52 ERA, 5.35 SIERA
Albert Suarez: 1.4 ERA, 4.22 SIERA
Marcus Stroman: 2.3 ERA, 5.07 SIERA
Mitch Keller: 1.17 ERA, 3.62 SIERA
Bryan Woo: 1.23 ERA, 3.67 SIERA
Bailey Falter: 2.9 ERA, 5.07 SIERA
Aaron Nola: 1.53 ERA, 3.59 SIERA
Corbin Burnes: 1.69 ERA, 3.72 SIERA
Andre Pallante: 3.86 ERA, 5.89 SIERA
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Jake Irvin - +2.3% CSW%, -2.7 BB%
Max Fried - +5.0% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Tanner Houck - +2.9% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Jack Flaherty - +3.7% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - +6.8% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Ryan Weathers - +2.6% CSW%, -7.3 BB%
Chase Anderson - +4.5% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Tyler Alexander - +3.5% CSW%, -2.9 BB%
Hitter Reports
Multiple Barrels
Aaron Judge (NYY) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.P. Crawford (SEA) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Andruw Monasterio, Yesterday: 107.0 Previous High: 106.8
Hardest Hit Balls
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 113.9mph - single
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 113.9mph - nan
David Bote (CHC) - 112.7mph - nan
Zach Neto (LAA) - 110.8mph - double
Martin Maldonado (CWS) - 110.1mph - nan
Christian Walker (ARI) - 110.0mph - single
Matt Olson (ATL) - 110.0mph - nan
Brent Rooker (OAK) - 110.0mph - home_run
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) - 109.9mph - home_run
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 109.8mph - single
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